Reinsurance - M97（Dip级30学分，选修）-《再保险》
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（前述章节【Dip系列课程】M97-第九章-再保险市场E2-E3）
E3A Outlook（展望）
Some ratings will also contain an outlook. This is where companies have distinctive business trends. A rating outlook gives the rating agency’s view about the potential future direction of a company’s rating, usually over the next 12, 24 or 36 months. Typically, outlooks can be positive, stable or negative.
一些评级还会包含展望。这是指公司具有独特的业务趋势。评级展望给出了评级机构对公司评级未来潜在方向的看法，通常是在未来 12、24 或 36 个月内。通常，展望可以是正面的、稳定的或负面的。
In 2012, rating agency A.M. Best affirmed the financial strength rating of ‘A’ (Excellent) of AXIS Specialty with a positive outlook reflecting its excellent risk-adjusted capitalisation, consistently strong operating performance through varied market conditions and robust enterprise risk management controls and the view that, given the current soft casualty market conditions, it is well positioned with a diversified book of business and an expanding worldwide infrastructure.
2012 年，评级机构 A.M. Best 确认了 AXIS Specialty 的“A”（优秀）财务实力评级，其正面展望反映了其出色的风险调整后资本化、在各种市场条件下持续强劲的运营业绩和强大的企业风险管理控制，以及鉴于当前软伤亡市场条件，该公司凭借多元化的业务和不断扩大的全球基础设施处于有利地位的观点。
In this way, a positive outlook would indicate favourable business trends, which, ultimately, could lead to a rating upgrade in the future. These ratings, although not in any way a guarantee, or warranty, of a company’s current or future ability to meet its obligations, are nevertheless important in terms of whether or not a reinsured should use a particular reinsurer and how much exposure the reinsured should allow the reinsurer to accept.
这样，正面展望将表明有利的业务趋势，最终可能导致未来的评级升级。这些评级虽然绝不是公司当前或未来履行义务能力的保证或担保，但对于再保险人是否应使用特定再保险公司以及再保险人应允许再保险公司承担多少风险而言，它们仍然很重要。
It must be stressed that a reinsured is not under any obligation to accept or rely on security ratings provided by a rating agency. There may be occasions when a legitimate business reason exists for the reinsured apparently to ignore such information and continue to place business with an ostensibly underperforming reinsurer.
必须强调的是，分保人没有义务接受或依赖评级机构提供的安全评级。有时，分保人可能会出于正当的商业理由而忽略此类信息，继续与表面上表现不佳的再保险公司开展业务。
E4 Sources of information（信息来源）
In determining a financial strength rating, rating agencies are not only given access to published material, such as the annual report and accounts and returns to regulatory authorities, but also to any other information the agency might require to make the assessment. Examples of such material might include:
• strategic and operational plans;
• more detailed breakdown of financial information; and
• information about clients, sources of business and its production.
在确定财务实力评级时，评级机构不仅可以查阅已发布的材料，例如年度报告和账目以及监管机构的回报，还可以查阅该机构进行评估可能需要的任何其他信息。此类材料的示例可能包括：
• 战略和运营计划；
• 更详细的财务信息分类；以及
• 有关客户、业务来源及其生产的信息。
Rating agencies will usually request the completion of questionnaires. Additionally, they will hold meetings with the company’s senior management. The meetings might also involve management teams for individual business units, so that the agencies can discuss and question many areas of the company’s management on strategy, business results and the way in which market circumstances and operating situations are being addressed. Typically, they will also base their ratings on information obtained from any other sources it considers reliable.
评级机构通常会要求填写问卷。此外，他们还会与公司的高级管理层举行会议。会议还可能涉及各个业务部门的管理团队，以便评级机构能够讨论和询问公司管理的许多方面，包括战略、业务成果以及应对市场环境和运营状况的方式。通常，他们还会根据从其认为可靠的任何其他来源获得的信息进行评级。
Ratings are thus a combination of a quantitative, objective analysis of financial information plus a qualitative, subjective analysis relating to the quality and depth of the management, and whether or not its decisions are coherent, credible and operable.
因此，评级是财务信息的定量、客观分析与管理质量和深度的定性、主观分析的结合，以及其决策是否连贯、可信和可操作。
Ratings look to the future as well as the past record and current status of the company. Other users of rating agency services are aware that the agencies have privileged access to information about a company, so this adds to the credibility of their evaluations.
评级着眼于未来以及公司的过去记录和当前状况。评级机构服务的其他用户知道，评级机构有权访问有关公司的信息，因此这增加了其评估的可信度。
E5 Ongoing review（持续审查）
Ratings are formally evaluated at least once every twelve months and following significant events, such as an ownership change, merger or recapitalisation. All ratings, however, are continually re-evaluated for other changes arising during the year, and agencies will try to maintain regular dialogue with a company’s management. In the light of any developments, the ratings can be moved up or down according to the assessment made of evolving circumstances.
评级至少每十二个月进行一次正式评估，并在重大事件（例如所有权变更、合并或资本重组）后进行评估。但是，所有评级都会根据年内发生的其他变化不断重新评估，评级机构将尝试与公司管理层保持定期对话。根据任何发展情况，评级可能会根据对不断变化的情况的评估而上调或下调。
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