Reinsurance - M97（Dip级30学分，选修）-《再保险》
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（前述章节【Dip系列课程】M97-第九章-再保险市场C4-C6）
D Market cycles（市场周期）
Non-life insurance typically goes through unpredictable price or, more appropriately, underwriting cycles that extend over several years, leading to what are termed ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ markets by those working in those markets.
非寿险通常经历不可预测的价格周期，或者更确切地说，承保周期会持续数年，导致那些在市场中工作的人称之为“硬”市场和“软”市场。
本sir注：这里的软和硬分别指买方和卖方市场。
In economic terms, we could say that the underwriting cycle for both insurance and reinsurance reflects the law of supply and demand. Supply for both is plentiful in profitable times but scarce when an abnormally large loss, and more particularly, a series of large losses, has affected the worldwide insurance and reinsurance markets.
从经济角度来看，我们可以说保险和再保险的承保周期反映了供求规律。在盈利时期，两者的供应都很充足，但当异常大的损失，尤其是一系列大损失影响到全球保险和再保险市场时，供应就会稀缺。
In practical terms, the cycle is characterised by peaks and troughs that reflect the rise and fall of (re)insurance prices. It alternates between periods of soft market conditions, when premium rates are stable or falling and (re)insurance is readily available, and periods of hard market conditions, when rates rise, coverage becomes difficult to find, and (re)insurers’ profits increase.
从实际角度来看，周期的特点是高峰和低谷反映了（再）保险价格的涨跌。它在软市场条件时期和硬市场条件时期之间交替出现，软市场条件时期的保费稳定或下降，（再）保险很容易获得，而硬市场条件时期的保费上升，保险变得难以找到，（再）保险公司的利润增加。
Reinsurance is particularly susceptible to market cycles, since terms for both proportional treaties and excess of loss contracts are agreed in advance of the actual treaty or contract period. Whatever losses affect a reinsurance agreement during its currency, the agreed terms at inception are rarely amended for that particular period.
再保险特别容易受到市场周期的影响，因为比例合同和超额损失合同的条款都是在实际合同或合同期之前商定的。无论在再保险协议有效期内，损失对协议造成何种影响，开始时商定的条款很少会针对该特定时期进行修改。
You should be aware that some forms of reinsurance experience greater volatility in the cycle than others. Price swings tend to be more pronounced in non-proportional reinsurance, whereas in proportional reinsurance rates do not fluctuate quite so widely because this business is more closely linked to the less volatile direct business.
您应该知道，某些形式的再保险在周期中比其他形式波动更大。非比例再保险的价格波动往往更为明显，而比例再保险的费率波动幅度并不那么大，因为这种业务与波动较小的直接业务联系更紧密。
In addition to the timing of reinsurance price changes, there are other important factors that influence a reinsurer’s ability to manage its affairs, as we will see later. The buyer’s need for reinsurance will also be assessed by the reinsurer that is approached for cover. At the same time, the security of the reinsurer and market conditions will play an important part in the buyer’s decision whether to purchase, what to purchase and how much to purchase. That decision will also be affected by considerations of timing.
除了再保险价格变动的时间之外，还有其他重要因素会影响再保险公司管理其事务的能力，我们将在后面看到。买方对再保险的需求也将由被要求承保的再保险公司评估。同时，再保险公司的安全性和市场条件将在买方决定是否购买、购买什么和购买多少方面发挥重要作用。该决定还将受到时机考虑的影响。
When market capacity is freely available, investment yields are high and results are moderate to good, there is a greater likelihood that buyers can capitalise on ‘soft’ market conditions by buying more reinsurance and at better terms.
当市场容量自由可用、投资收益高且结果中等至良好时，买方更有可能通过购买更多再保险和更优惠的条款来利用“软”市场条件。
When hard market conditions prevail, capacity (or capital) reduces as reinsurers withdraw or reduce their acceptances, reinsurance terms harden and the economic laws of supply and demand apply, with costs being driven up. The result is that the buyer may have to accept tougher conditions, in the form of higher retentions or lower commissions or more restrictive terms and conditions of coverage (e.g. exclusions), than they would have preferred.
当市场条件艰难时，随着再保险公司撤回或减少承保，容量（或资本）减少，再保险条款变得僵化，经济供求规律适用，成本被推高。结果是买方可能不得不接受比他们希望的更严格的条件，以更高的自留额或更低的佣金或更严格的承保条款和条件（例如除外责任）的形式。
Finally, the wider investment and tax regime environment can be relevant in the decision to buy reinsurance. When stock markets are high, buyers may have a choice of investing in equities, for example, which are likely to provide a profitable and quick return, as opposed to purchasing reinsurance which they do not really need, provided they have the strength to stand a limited number of unexpectedly large losses.
最后，更广泛的投资和税收制度环境可能与购买再保险的决定有关。例如，当股票市场高涨时，买家可以选择投资股票，因为股票可能会带来丰厚且快速的回报，而不是购买他们并不真正需要的再保险，前提是他们有能力承受有限数量的意外巨额损失。
In profitable years, the purchase of reinsurance can reduce the tax liability of insurers as this is assessed on the net rather than the gross underwriting result and can offset the tax on interest or profits on equities.
在盈利的年份，购买再保险可以减少保险公司的纳税义务，因为这是按净额而不是总承保结果进行评估的，并且可以抵消股票利息或利润的税款。
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