日本对甲醇作为替代性低碳船燃的需求将增加

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Japanese demand for methanol as an alternative marine fuel is expected to increase, especially after 2027, but it is likely it will mainly be used as a transition fuel before the commercial launch of ammonia- and hydrogen-fuelled vessels.

The Japanese shipping industry is expected to launch more methanol-fuelled vessels from 2027 (see table), to help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the global maritime sector.

Global regulatory body the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in 2023 pledged to achieve net zero emissions in international waters by or around 2050.

To help achieve the IMO's target, a total of 26 methanol-powered vessels are expected to be commissioned worldwide by the end of this year, followed by 54 ships in 2025 and 96 carriers in 2026, according to a report released in November by Japanese classification society ClassNK.  This would increase global methanol demand to 4.5mn t/yr by 2026, said the report.  As of June, there are 33 methanol-fuelled vessels currently in use.

Methanol-fuelled vessels can refuel at around 130 major ports all over the world, except in Japan, according to Japanese shipowner Mitsui OSK Lines (Mol).  The city of Yokohama in the eastern prefecture of Kanagawa, in co-operation with Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (MGC) and Maersk, launched a study on methanol and green methanol bunkering in the port of Yokohama in December 2023.  Since then, the group, in collaboration with new partners — Japanese refiner Idemitsu, MGC's shipping subsidiary Kokuka Sangyo, domestic shipping firm Uyeno Transtech and Yokohama Kawasaki international port — has conducted a ship-to-ship bunkering simulation at the port of Yokohama in September.

Expectations of the increase in methanol use, especially cleaner e-methanol, have led Japanese firms to become more involved in upstream projects to secure the fuel.  Japanese firms have invested in more than 10 e-methanol production projects both in and outside of Japan (see table), with the number of projects likely to increase, according to the ministry of economy, trade and industry.

Japanese firms are developing new carriers, but at the same time are also trying to modify existing vessels — which currently use fuel oil, LNG, LPG and methanol — to be able to burn renewable fuels such as biofuels, e-methane and e-methanol.  It would be easy to increase the number of methanol-fuelled ships, given their relatively low initial or modification costs compared with LNG-fed vessels, according to Mol. Methanol is also a stable liquid at room temperature and atmosphere pressure, making it easy to transport and store compared to other alternative fuels, Mol added.

Fellow shipping company Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK line) is also mulling the development of smaller methanol-fuelled handymax ships that are unable to be equipped with large ammonia fuel tanks, to aid with decarbonisation.

Methanol a temporary solution

But Japanese firms see methanol mostly as a "bridging fuel" rather than a zero-emission fuel, as methanol can reduce GHG emissions only by 15pc compared to traditional bunker fuel, although it can curb sulphur oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions by up to 99pc and 80pc, respectively.  It would be vital to begin introducing much cleaner marine fuels, such as ammonia and hydrogen, to meet the maritime sector's net-zero goal.

Tokyo is trying to promote the development of ammonia and hydrogen-fuelled ships by providing financial support, while the utilisation of such clean vessels could materialise from around 2030, the ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism (Mlit) said.

Japan's state-owned research institute Nedo plans to provide ¥35bn ($229mn) to support the development of engines, fuel tanks, fuel supply systems and other core technologies for zero-emission ships that use hydrogen and ammonia, as well as LNG and e-methane, under its ¥2.76 trillion green innovation fund.  But the grants are much larger than those for the development of methanol-fuelled ships, which are currently available only from Mlit and the environment ministry, with the amount of ¥100mn per vessel over two to three years.  The scheme has been open for application every year since 2023.  But the ministries' scheme also targets LNG-fuelled ships, with a breakdown of allotment for methanol-powered vessels unclear.

阿格斯船用燃料市场展望报告每月发布对原油、HSFO、VLSFO、MGO以及LNG、生物船燃、甲醇、合成氨等替代性低碳船燃的2年价格预测，各地区供需基本面分析，以及影响主要地区替代性低碳船燃需求的最新法规变动。您可以通过下方二维码申请报告试阅。

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