阿格斯观点：亚洲沥青供应增加，需求前景喜忧参半

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Increased bitumen exports from south China could boost supplies in southeast Asia this year, but increased consumption is only expected in a few key Asian economies in 2025.

Pent-up demand from previously incomplete projects in 2024 could bolster near-term buying interest.

Projects in key Vietnamese, Indonesian, and Chinese markets were delayed in 2024 because of inclement weather and government funding issues, with some project cancellations in Indonesia. Overall demand in Australia was also lacklustre because of limited funding amid high inflationary pressure.

This was exacerbated by higher import costs in the third quarter of 2024 when demand outpaced supply. Strong high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) prices and weaker export margins curbed bitumen production in key exporting countries, including Singapore, South Korea and Thailand since the second quarter.

This is likely to change in 2025 with production expected to return to more typical levels, sources close to southeast and northeast Asian refiners told Argus.

Higher export availability from south China, especially from independent refiner Chambroad's 80,000 b/d refinery in Hainan, could limit import demand for cargoes from other exporting regions, market participants added. The Hainan refinery has plans to export around 400,000-500,000t in 2025.

A 270,000 b/d refinery located in peninsular Malaysia, which refrained from producing bitumen since mid-2024, is likely to resume operations in 2025. The 175,000 b/d Map Ta Phut refinery in Thailand, which prioritised fuel oil production in 2024, is also likely to increase bitumen output this year, adding to the overall export supply pool.

"If you compare current HSFO and bitumen prices, they are at very similar levels. From a margins perspective, the refiners have little reason to cut bitumen production," a southeast Asian trader said. "[But] if demand is not sufficient enough to absorb the supplies, they may have to cut output."

Meanwhile, global trading firm Vitol's 50,000-70,000t bitumen storage facility in Malaysia's Tanjung Bin is expected to be operational in 2025. This would increase the volume of imported cargoes and enable inter-regional arbitrage. But whether the inventories would mainly cater to the Asian market has yet to be determined.

Chinese consumption expectations are mixed. This year is the final year of China's five-year economic plan and the government is set to turn its focus toward infrastructure investment, which typically drives bitumen consumption. The recent monetary policy announcement may also support demand. But market participants are unsure if the policies will be enough to stabilise the real estate sector. Higher domestic output will also weigh on import demand.

Vietnamese consumption is expected to accelerate in 2025 as many projects were delayed because of prolonged funding issues. At least one importer estimates that consumption will rise by 20-30pc on the year to around 1.2mn-1.3mn t as funding issues are anticipated to subside.

Thai and Malaysian demand in 2025 is expected to be similar to 2024 levels, with a stable number of projects and likely no change in policies. Consumption is anticipated to increase by at least 5pc on the year in New Zealand. But importers from neighbouring Australia expect a 10pc drop on the year with few large projects and most maintenance works limited to filling potholes, and budget availability still uncertain.

Demand is also unlikely to increase in Indonesia as infrastructure funds will remain tight, given that the recently elected government will continue to prioritise financial support programmes and social initiatives, southeast Asian traders told Argus.

Logistical constraints to extend

Bitumen vessel availability was tight in the last quarter of 2024 and is likely to persist into the first quarter of 2025. Weak demand and reduced production have weighed on liquidity in the second half of 2024, which caused some vessels from Asia to move to other regions.

But vessel tightness is likely to ease in the second half of 2025, as several new 8,000 dead weight tonne (dwt) and a few larger vessels around 16,000-17,000 dwt are likely to be delivered in this year, market participants said. There are far fewer new builds for smaller 5,000 dwt vessels, which may indicate an atypical shift towards larger ships to transport bitumen in Asia.

All Argus prices and data are Argus’ proprietary information and are reproduced here for a limited period of time for information purposes only. Argus gives no warranty and expressly excludes all liability of any kind.

所有Argus的价格和数据均为Argus的专有信息，此处仅为在有限的时间内复制，仅供参考。阿格斯公司不提供任何保证，并明确排除任何形式的所有责任。

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