阿格斯观点: 需求放缓, 超大型原油船VLCC市场面临下行风险

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The VLCC tanker market is facing downside risk moving into 2025 — after a lacklustre fourth quarter of 2024 — as a result of shrinking Chinese demand and the continuation of the Opec+ crude production cuts.

Opec+ has delayed the unwinding of 2.2mn b/d cut once again to April 2025, and this may be pushed further as it "can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions". This would contribute to keep crude tanker demand and rates under pressure in 2025, especially as the Opec+ group will also keep in place two other sets of cuts by an additional year to the end of 2026.

VLCC rates in 2024 have also been under significant pressure in the second half of the year because of a slowdown in Chinese oil demand. China is the key destination for VLCCs. It accounted for nearly 40pc of all VLCC voyages in 2024, with Japan and South Korea accounting for another 20pc.

The IEA has kept its oil demand growth for China unchanged at 150,000 b/d for 2024. This is far below the 710,000 b/d it was forecasting in January 2024. And this trend is likely to continue in 2025, being partly the result of an increased uptake of electric vehicles, LNG-powered trucks and high-speed rail, according to the IEA.

China has also cut export tax rebates on oil products to 9pc from the current 13pc, effective 1 December. This may lead to a decrease in Chinese oil product exports, as players may be discouraged by the VAT rebate cuts and reduce Chinese crude imports, weighing on tanker demand.

VLCC rates will receive little support from the newbuild market this year. Tankers deliveries in 2025 are scheduled to be lower, with a 1.2pc increase in overall tanker fleet growth, but ship scrapping rates are slowing down. This should keep tanker availability more or less steady in 2025, but rates could come under pressure from an ageing fleet. The average age of a tanker is now 13.2 years. This increase in vessel ages may lead to further rate discounts — which are typically attached to older tankers.

The re-election of Donald Trump as US president could have some impacts on the freight markets heading into 2025, but it is unlikely to offer support to the VLCC segment.

Trump has planned to ramp up the US's crude production over the course of his second term. This has brought some market participants to question the extent of the increases and the knock on effects.

The US primarily uses Aframaxes and Suezmaxes for crude exports and if the new government's policies lead to an increase in crude exports then the volumes would most likely be carried on tankers in these segments. The US also typically exports more to Europe than to Asia-Pacific, which would also mean a proportional increase in the smaller vessel classes rather than VLCCs.

The VLCC market will most likely remain under pressure, particularly early in 2025. And some VLCC shipowners have already started to widen their market scope onto traditionally Suezmax routes from west Africa to Europe to increase earnings. But having VLCCs competing with smaller classes could lead to a more sustained slump in other segments, as it would increase tanker supply on these routes and ultimately weigh on rates. This is because increased competitions for cargoes could lead owners to reduce offers in order to secure work.

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