关税、美国出口能力、中东产量受限等综合作用下, 2025年VLGC市场面临不确定性 | 阿格斯观点

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Looming tariffs, Panama Canal's new dynamics, limited US export capacity and a continued cap on Mideast Gulf LPG production will bring uncertainty to the VLGC market next year and may keep rates well below 2023's record levels.

VLGC freight rates were largely suppressed in 2024 compared with the previous year because of smoother transits at the Panama Canal as water levels rose.  Full capacity at the canal resumed mid-year, and this weighed on freight rates because it resulted in global higher tanker availability as it reduced voyage length between the US and Asia-Pacific.

Panama Canal transits in 2025 will continue to affect rates with the kick off of the long term slot allocation system, where 40pc of slots available have already been allocated.  This will mean there could be fewer available slots in the usual Neopanamax daily auctions, and could make it more difficult for vessels without bookings needing immediate passage.

Another crucial factor that pressured VLGCs in 2024 was the reduction of available US spot cargoes because of weather related delays and maintenance at US terminals halfway through the year.  High demand for export cargoes matched with a surplus of ships drove premiums for US cargoes to record highs in September, effectively capturing a larger share of the arbitrage and weighing on freight rates.

This has since dialled down once terminals caught up with their schedules, but higher premiums for US cargoes is likely to remain a factor weighing on freight until further export capacity comes online in mid-2025 — when Energy Transfer's Nederland export terminal will add 250,000 b/d of export capacity with a new LPG dock.

In the east of Suez market, Opec+ has voted to maintain the recent production cuts rather than unwinding them as previously intended.  This will continue to cap LPG output and cargo availability in the Pacific Basin market this year, and free up ships to compete in the US Gulf instead.

Fewer Mideast Gulf cargoes could add pressure over freight rates in the first half of 2025, before more US Gulf shipments are made available mid-year.  This will absorb ships on the long haul Houston to Chiba route and likely support freight rates in the second half of the year.

This may be boosted on occasion by short term shortages of ships while a large portion of the fleet is expected to be temporarily out for mandatory maintenance this year, reducing tanker availability.  Shipowners BW LPG and Dorian LPG said 80 ships are scheduled to drydock in 2025, double the number of this year.  This will match 13 expected newbuild deliveries in the year, and the outcome could support rates.

But global LPG flows could be significantly disrupted in the case of another trade war between the Washington and Beijing if US president-elected Donald Trump fulfils his campaign promise to impose a tariff on Chinese goods.

Should Beijing introduce retaliatory tariffs on LPG, a two-tiered market for US exports to Asia-Pacific could emerge as seen in 2018, when Mideast Gulf cargoes were bought and sold by Japanese and South Korean importers and traders and then resold to China at $15-20/t premiums.

Back then several US shipments ended up redirected to Europe as US traders reduced exports to China — although such actions remain speculative for now.

A potential trade war remains a significant risk for the VLGC freight market along with further disruptions at the Panama Canal and the continued Opec+ cuts, which could keep 2025 freight rates to levels recorded in 2024.

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