Leaders | Spanish lessons
经济学人社论｜西班牙式经验
英文部分选自经济学人20241207期社论版块
Leaders | Spanish lessons
What Spain can teach the rest of EuropeOur number-crunching suggests it was the best-performing rich economy in 2024数据分析显示西班牙是2024年表现最佳的富裕经济体A dozen years ago Spain was a byword for economic failure. The country’s government and banks appeared to be locked in a death spiral and depended on bail-outs. Young people were leaving the country or protesting at their lack of opportunities. Homes lay half-built and airports abandoned, relics of a burst construction bubble.
十几年前，西班牙曾是经济失败的代名词。政府和银行似乎被困在了恶性循环之中，依赖外援来纾困。年轻人或是离开西班牙，或是抗议缺乏机会。房屋烂尾，机场荒废，都是拜盲目大兴土木、房地产泡沫破裂所赐。How that has changed. By our reckoning, the country is on course to be the best-performing rich-world economy of 2024 across a range of measures including GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, fiscal policy and the performance of the stock market. Both overall economic growth and the pace of job creation are running faster than in America, which has been the envy of the rich world.如今，西班牙的颓势已经完全改变。我们根据GDP增长、通胀、失业率、财政政策和股市表现等多个指标估算，西班牙有望在2024年成为全球表现最好的富裕经济体。其总体经济增长和新增就业的速度均超过美国，而美国一直是富裕国家的羡慕对象。
Greece and Ireland, which were also crisis-stricken a decade ago, have fared well in 2024, too. So has Denmark, where the economy has been boosted by the success of Novo Nordisk’s anti-obesity drugs. But it is Spain that offers the best rejoinder to those who say Europe is doomed to stagnation. Its economy is reaping the reward of past reforms. That offers lessons for the rest of the continent, but should also serve as a warning for Spanish policymakers today.
虽然希腊和爱尔兰也曾在十年前深陷危机，但在2024年同样表现出色。靠着诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk）减肥药的成功，丹麦的经济也有所提振。然而，对于那些认为欧洲注定会陷入停滞的人来说，西班牙的表现才是最有力的反驳。西班牙经济正在收获过去改革的成果。这为其他欧洲国家提供了借鉴，也应为今天的西班牙政策制定者敲响警钟。
One lesson is to focus on services and not fetishise manufacturing. Although industrial production has not fallen as fast in Spain as in Germany, partly thanks to lower energy costs, it has still stagnated. But tourism has bounced back from its pandemic low, and the country is moving up the value chain, increasingly exporting consulting services and technological know-how as well as sun and sangría. Non-tourism services have risen from around 5.5% of GDP before the pandemic to between 7-8% now, says BBVA, a bank.其中一个重要的启示是，要重视发展服务业而非过分强调制造业。尽管由于较低的能源成本，西班牙的工业产出并没有像德国那样急转直下，但总体上仍然陷于停滞。反观旅游业，它已经从疫情期间的低谷迅速反弹，得益于充沛的阳光与桑格利亚酒吸引了一众游客，并且西班牙正逐步向价值链上游移动，增加咨询服务和技术专长的出口。根据西班牙对外银行（BBVA）的统计数据，非旅游类服务行业在西班牙GDP中的占比从疫情前的约5.5%增长到了如今的7%-8%。Another lesson is to stay open. Whereas young people once left Spain in search of opportunities, now they arrive instead. Since 2019 the country’s foreign-born workforce has risen by around 1.2m, mostly from Latin America. Many of these migrants are in low-paid, low-skilled employment, meaning that though the economy is 7% bigger than in 2019, it is only 3% bigger after adjusting for population growth. Yet that is still better than in countries such as Britain and Canada, which have seen similar immigration booms, but a decline in GDP per person.另一个启示就是要保持开放。过去，西班牙的年轻人往往为了追求机会而背井离乡，如今西班牙却成了年轻人的目的地。自2019年以来，西班牙的外籍劳动力增加了大约120万人，主要来自拉丁美洲。许多移民从事低薪、低技能的工作，这意味着尽管经济总量比2019年增长了7%，但如果考虑人口增长，实际增幅只有3%。然而即便如此，这依然胜过英国和加拿大等国。这些国家在移民涌入的情况下，人均GDP却出现了下滑。Spain has also welcomed investment from Chinese firms. On December 10th Stellantis, a carmaker, and CATL, a Chinese battery-maker, said they would build a new battery factory in Zaragoza. (Stellantis’s biggest shareholder, Exor, part-owns The Economist’s parent company.) Chery International, a Chinese carmaker, has chosen Barcelona as the site for its first European manufacturing plant.西班牙同样欢迎中国企业的投资。12月10日，汽车制造商斯特兰蒂斯（Stellantis）与中国电池制造商宁德时代（CATL）宣布，它们将在萨拉戈萨合作建设一座新的电池工厂。（斯特兰蒂斯最大的股东Exor也部分持有《经济学人》母公司股权。）此外，中国汽车制造商奇瑞国际（Chery International）已选择巴塞罗那作为其在欧洲首座制造工厂的落户地。Most important, Spain shows that structural reforms bring long-term rewards. Much of its recent success reflects decisions after the financial crisis to reform its banks and labour market. The financial sector has consolidated, and labour-market reforms have made it easier to renegotiate contracts and encouraged bosses to take on more permanent staff. A package of measures aiming to boost renewables, including abolishing the “sun tax” that levied additional fees on solar power, has helped green energy boom.最为重要的是，西班牙的成功表明结构性改革能带来长期回报。西班牙近期取得的很多成功都要归功于金融危机后政府对银行和劳动力市场进行改革。金融企稳增强，劳动力市场的改革让重新协商劳动合同变得更加容易，同时也鼓励雇主与更多员工签署长期合同。随着可再生能源一揽子刺激政策的出台，例如取消太阳能产业额外征收的“太阳税”等，都助力了绿色能源蓬勃发展。2015年，西班牙政府批准了皇家法令，引入了太阳税，对使用光伏装置自用发电的消费者征收费用。也就是说，那些通过太阳能电池板自己生产能源的人必须为此付费。该税的既定目标是保证电力系统的经济可持续性，并防止自用消费者“脱离”电网，同时在其板不能产生足够能量时继续受益于电网的支持。然而，该税收遭到多个组织的严厉批评，认为它只会阻碍可再生能源的增长。source: https://zh-cn.renovablesverdes.comStill, Spain must not rest easy. Tourism and immigration are bidding up house prices; investment and productivity growth remain elusive. An unwieldy and fragile coalition government is going in the wrong direction. It is unable to pass the further reforms needed to boost long-term growth, including in education and services. It is embracing fiddly regulations, driving up costs for businesses. It will need to find money to increase defence spending which, at just 1.3% of GDP, is much too low.但是西班牙也不能因此而放松警惕。旅游业和移民正推高房价，投资和生产力并没有显著增加。一个松散脆弱的联合政府似乎没有找准方向，没能通过更进一步的改革促进教育和服务等领域的长期发展。现在的西班牙政府热衷于各项管控，增加了企业的经营成本。同时，国防开支只占GDP 1.3%，比例太低，因此西班牙政府还需要筹集资金增加国防投入。Spain shows that European economies can overcome seemingly insurmountable challenges. It must take care that it does not start to illustrate the danger of standing still.西班牙的表现证明了欧洲经济体可以战胜看似不可逾越的挑战。同时，也要注意不能由此开始止步不前。翻译组：
Leon，男，驻外民工，经济学人读者
Yo，女，种下过流星，立志不做大鸵鸟
Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译
审校组：
Lucian，医学翻译，灵魂在杰作中冒险
Clark，愿以此功德回向给众生，离苦得乐
Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译
Neil，男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉
这些年欧洲太需要好消息了，欧债危机，疫情，俄乌战争，都给欧洲的增长带来不确定性。曾令人羡慕向往的欧洲似乎一去不复返。德国原本一枝独秀，苦苦支撑着欧盟，现在制造业低迷，经济表现不佳。西班牙的成绩确实让人惊喜，如果能持续，那真是验证了我们的老话：三十年河东，三十年河西。
旅游业的复苏贡献了12%的增长，旅游业疫情前一直是西班牙的支柱产业之一，疫情结束，游客激增倒是意料之中。此次西班牙经济增长也有中国制造业的贡献，这得益于西班牙政府改革开放，积极吸引外部投资。除资本之外，青年劳动力也大量流入。对于一个经济体来说，如果劳动力呈现年轻化，未来的发展是有活力的，空间也是可以想象；相反，就需面对老龄化的风险。西班牙现在不愁劳动力，需要改善的情况是失业率依然较高。另外，外来人口的劳动力整体素质低下，专业素质有待提高。
总之，在当下不利的经济环境下，西班牙能异军突起，实属不易。有国际形势师分析未来或许只看两个国家，中美，欧盟会没落。世界的发展需要多元。欧盟这么大的一个市场失去了发展活力对全球经济都是极大的损失，真心希望欧洲各国能再次崛起。
打造
独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习
01 经济学人打卡营 ![]()
每周一到周六阅读经济学人
并在群里以及小鹅通内写分享
分享是文章的总结或者观点或者语音打卡
字数不少于100字，中英文都可以
群里每周免费分享最新外刊合集
点击下图，即可了解打卡营详情！
![]()
02 早起打卡营 ![]()
![]()
