Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?投资者在决定对某只股票进行买入、卖出或持有操作时，往往会参考华尔街分析师的建议。虽然媒体对这些受雇于经纪公司（或卖方）的分析师评级变动的报道经常会影响股票价格，但这些报道真的重要吗？ Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about Alibaba (BABA) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.在探讨经纪公司建议的可靠性以及如何利用这些建议之前，我们先来看看华尔街这些重量级人物对阿里巴巴（BABA）的看法。 Alibaba currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.35, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 17 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.35 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.阿里巴巴目前的平均经纪公司推荐值（ABR）为1.35，该值基于1至5的等级（从强烈买入到强烈卖出），是根据17家经纪公司给出的实际建议（买入、持有、卖出等）计算得出的。1.35的ABR值介于强烈买入和买入之间。 Of the 17 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 14 are Strong Buy, representing 82.4% of all recommendations. The ABR suggests buying Alibaba, but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.在得出当前ABR值的17条建议中，有14条为强烈买入，占所有建议的82.4%。ABR建议买入阿里巴巴，但仅凭这一信息做出投资决策可能并不明智。根据几项研究，经纪公司建议很少能成功指导投资者选择最具价格上涨潜力的股票。 Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation.你想知道为什么吗？由于经纪公司对其所关注的股票存在既得利益，其分析师往往对其持强烈正面倾向的评级。根据我们的研究，经纪公司每给出一条“强烈卖出”建议，就会给出五条“强烈买入”建议。 In other words, their interests aren't always aligned with retail investors, rarely indicating where the price of a stock could actually be heading. Therefore, the best use of this information could be validating your own research or an indicator that has proven to be highly successful in predicting a stock's price movement.换句话说，他们的利益并不总是与散户投资者一致，很少能准确指示股票价格的实际走势。因此，这些信息的最佳用途是验证你自己的研究或作为预测股票价格走势的可靠指标。 Zacks Rank, our proprietary stock rating tool with an impressive externally audited track record, categorizes stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), and is an effective indicator of a stock's price performance in the near future. Therefore, using the ABR to validate the Zacks Rank could be an efficient way of making a profitable investment decision.Zacks Rank是我们独有的股票评级工具，拥有令人印象深刻的外部审计记录，它将股票分为五个组别，从Zacks Rank 1（强烈买入）到Zacks Rank 5（强烈卖出），是预测股票近期价格表现的有效指标。因此，使用ABR来验证Zacks Rank可能是做出盈利投资决策的有效方法。 Zacks Rank Should Not Be Confused With ABRZacks排名不应与ABR混淆 Although both Zacks Rank and ABR are displayed in a range of 1-5, they are different measures altogether.尽管Zacks Rank和ABR都显示在1-5的范围内，但它们是完全不同的衡量标准。 Broker recommendations are the sole basis for calculating the ABR, which is typically displayed in decimals (such as 1.28). The Zacks Rank, on the other hand, is a quantitative model designed to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers 1 to 5.ABR仅基于经纪公司的建议进行计算，通常以小数形式显示（如1.28）。而Zacks Rank则是一个定量模型，旨在利用盈利预测修订的力量。它以整数形式显示，即1至5。 It has been and continues to be the case that analysts employed by brokerage firms are overly optimistic with their recommendations. Because of their employers' vested interests, these analysts issue more favorable ratings than their research would support, misguiding investors far more often than helping them.一直以来，经纪公司雇用的分析师给出的建议都过于乐观。由于雇主的既得利益，这些分析师给出的评级往往比其研究结果支持的评级更为乐观，误导投资者的次数远多于帮助投资者的次数。 On the other hand, earnings estimate revisions are at the core of the Zacks Rank. And empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.另一方面，盈利预测修订是Zacks Rank的核心。实证研究表明，盈利预测修订的趋势与近期股票价格走势之间存在强烈的相关性。 Furthermore, the different grades of the Zacks Rank are applied proportionately across all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide earnings estimates for the current year. In other words, at all times, this tool maintains a balance among the five ranks it assigns.此外，Zacks Rank的不同等级在经纪公司分析师为当年提供盈利预测的所有股票中按比例分配。也就是说，该工具始终在其分配的五个等级之间保持平衡。 There is also a key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank when it comes to freshness. When you look at the ABR, it may not be up-to-date. Nonetheless, since brokerage analysts constantly revise their earnings estimates to reflect changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in predicting future stock prices.在时效性方面，ABR和Zacks Rank也存在关键差异。当你查看ABR时，它可能不是最新的。然而，由于经纪公司分析师不断修订其盈利预测以反映不断变化的商业趋势，并且这些行动会迅速反映在Zacks Rank中，因此它在预测未来股票价格方面总是及时的。 Is BABA a Good Investment?阿里巴巴是良好的投资选择吗？ In terms of earnings estimate revisions for Alibaba, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has remained unchanged over the past month at $8.68. Analysts' steady views regarding the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by an unchanged consensus estimate, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to perform in line with the broader market in the near term.就阿里巴巴的盈利预测修订而言，过去一个月，Zacks共识估计的今年每股收益保持不变，为8.68美元。分析师对公司盈利前景的稳定看法（如共识估计未变所示）可能是该股近期表现与大盘一致的正当理由。 It may therefore be prudent to be a little cautious with the Buy-equivalent ABR for Alibaba.因此，对于阿里巴巴相当于买入的ABR值，我们或许应该保持一些谨慎。
