Back analysis of the shear strength parameters of 3D landslides with Bayesian approach and reliability theory基于 Bayes 方法与可靠性理论的三维滑坡剪切强度参数反演分析
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Zuo S, Wei B, Zhao LH, Pan QJ, Lei ZB, Luo SL, 2024. Back analysis of the shear strength parameters of 3D landslides with Bayesian approach and reliability theory. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 77: 103639.DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103639
为在考虑岩土参数变异性和不确定性情形下，建立滑移面剪切强度参数的精确模型，本文提出了一种基于 Bayes 理论和三维边坡稳定性分析方法的参数可靠性反演分析方法。首先，基于 Bayes 理论，根据现场试验信息更新剪切强度参数的先验信息。然后，结合可靠性理论，研究了不同二维和三维滑移面形状对参数反演分析的影响。结果表明，基于 Bayes 理论引入试验数据更新掌握参数信息后，随着试验数据量增加，参数的不确定性降低。准确考虑滑移面形状和三维效应，对提高参数确定和边坡稳定性分析精度具有重要意义。关键词: Bayes 方法, 反演分析, 三维边坡稳定性分析, 剪切强度参数, 可靠性To establish an accurate model for determining the shear strength parameters of sliding surfaces while considering the variability and uncertainty of geotechnical parameters, a reliability back analysis method for parameters based on Bayesian theory and a three-dimensional slope stability analysis method are proposed in this paper. First, the prior information of shear strength parameters is updated according to the field test information based on Bayesian theory. Then, combined with the reliability theory, the influences of different two-dimensional and three-dimensional sliding surface shapes on the parameters back analysis are studied. The results show that the uncertainty of parameters decreases with the increase in the amount of test data after introducing the test data to update the mastered parameter information based on Bayesian theory, and it is of great significance to consider the shape and three-dimensional effect of the sliding surface accurately to improve the accuracy of parameter determination and slope stability analysis.Keywords: Bayesian; Back analysis; Three-dimensional slope stability analysis; Shear strength parameters; Reliability.![]()
Fig. 1. 3D slope stability analysis model
Fig. 2. Relationship between the reliability index and the critical state
Fig. 3. Flow chart of parameters for the back analysis of a 3D landslide
Fig. 4. Arc crack in the landslide
Fig. 5. Engineering geological map of the Xianjiagou landslide
Fig. 6. Landslide surface model based on contour lines
Fig. 7. Back analysis results of 2D and 3D models
Fig. 8. Bayesian updating results with different test data
Fig. 9. Comparison of reliability back analysis results
Fig. 10. Back analysis results with different distributions
Fig. 11. Different shapes of 2D sliding surfaces
图 12: A 截面不同滑移面形状对应的二维反演分析结果Fig. 12. 2D back analysis results corresponding to different sliding surface shapes of Section A
Fig. 13. Calculation diagram of a rough 3D sliding body
图 14: 基于双谐和样条插值方法构建的三维滑移面Fig. 14. 3D sliding surface built by the biharmonic spline interpolation method
图 15: 基于 Delaunay 三角剖分法构建的三维滑移面Fig. 15. 3D sliding surface built by the Delaunay triangulation method
Fig. 16. 3D back analysis results of different sliding surface shapes
作者信息 | Authors
长沙大学 (Changsha University) 土木工程学院
深圳市城市交通规划设计研究中心 (Shenzhen Transportation Design & Research Institute)
赵炼恒 Lian-Heng Zhao, 通讯作者 (Corresp.)中南大学 (Central South University) 土木工程学院Email: zhaolianheng@csu.edu.cn
中南大学 (Central South University) 土木工程学院
中南大学 (Central South University) 土木工程学院
长沙大学 (Changsha University) 土木工程学院
律梦泽 M.Z. Lyu | 编辑 (Ed)
P.D. Spanos | 审校 (Rev)
陈建兵 J.B. Chen | 审校 (Rev)
彭勇波 Y.B. Peng | 审校 (Rev)
