全球前三资产管理公司China's policy pivotChina's quest for a slower but more sustainable model of growth focused on domestic consumption and higher-end manufacturing is advancing, but not without bumps in the road. The policy pivot by the politburo in late 2024 signals a decisive move to resolve the issues that have depressed domestic demand, namely the property sector, local government debt, a lacklustre equity market, and poor consumer confidence. 中国的政策转变中国追求更慢但更可持续的增长模式，重点放在国内消费和高端制造业上，这一进程正在推进，但并非没有遇到坎坷。2024年底中国官方的政策转变标志着一个决定性的举措，旨在解决一直抑制国内需求的问题，即房地产市场、地方政府债务、低迷的股票市场和消费者信心不足。All eyes will be on the progress of the broad moves announced at the time of writing, as well as whatever the authorities follow up with over the months to come.全世界都在密切关注，一方面关注当前宣布的重大政策措施的实施情况，另一方面也关注未来几个月内中国政府将采取的进一步行动。 One big question is whether the levels ofgrowth China needs can be delivered if the US simultaneously burdens companies' biggest sales market with heavy tariffs. The manufacturing sector is steadily upgrading, especially in new and emerging industries, providing support for overall growth both from rising capex and external demand. Domestic consumption, however, has not yet picked up significantly. While the policy moves may help stabilise the property market, we do not expect the return of strong growth in2025. Rather it may move to a new, lower equilibrium.一个重大问题是，如果美国同时对其最大的销售市场施加高额关税，中国是否还能实现所需的增长水平。制造业正在稳步升级，特别是在新兴行业中，这为整体增长提供了支持，无论是从资本支出的增加还是外部需求来看。然而，国内消费尚未显著回升。虽然政策举措可能有助于稳定房地产市场，但我们预计2025年不会出现强劲增长的回归。相反，它可能会转向一个新的、较低的平衡状态。 Other drivers of growth are emerging and may receive more policy support. An urbanisation push should include improved infrastructure and connectivity among cities. The energy transition is a priority, with incentives for energy saving in everything from home appliances to electric vehicles. Lastly, Beijing may devote more effort and resources to resolving local government debt issues, freeing authorities to do more to support households. 新的增长驱动因素正在中国出现，并可能获得更多的政策支持。城市化推进应包括改善基础设施和城市间的互联互通。能源转型是优先事项，从家用电器到电动汽车，各方面都有节能激励。最后，北京可能会投入更多的努力和资源来解决地方政府债务问题，使官方能够更多地支持家庭。 As ever, we will be well into next year before the authorities publish the growth target for 2025, but the consensus of market forecasts is below 5 per cent, even after the boost from stimulus.如同往年一样，我们得等到明年较晚的时候，政府才会发布2025年的经济增长目标。但根据市场目前的普遍预测，即使考虑到政策刺激的正面影响，预计增长率也不会超过5%。 The spillover of the new measures may vary across different economies, with some emerging markets benefitting more than others from lower-value, higher-quality imports from China. In general, the country may continue to export deflation if the policy easing delivered to the economy remains contained and moderate. 新措施的溢出效应可能会在不同经济体之间产生差异，一些新兴市场可能会从中国较低成本、更高质量的进口商品中获益更多。总体而言，如果政策放松保持适度且受控，中国可能会继续出口通缩。 If additional US tariffs are imposed, past experience also tells us that Chinese companies are likely to prove agile in response, softening the impact on corporate earnings. Beyond that, macro stabilisation policies will be crucial in deciding China's economic fate over the next year.如果美国进一步增加关税，根据以往的经验，中国企业很可能能够灵活应对，从而减轻对公司利润的影响。此外，宏观稳定政策对于中国未来一年的经济走向至关重要。 In China itself, we prefer sectors that are already high on the government's policy agenda:technology, high-end manufacturing, consumer, and healthcare. We're conscious that Chinese equities can be volatile, and that many companies have rebounded from depressed to fair valuations on the policy pivot. The good news is that there's no shortage of stocks with clear paths to earnings growth in this massive market.在中国，我们看好那些政府高度重视的行业，包括科技、高端制造、消费品和医疗保健。我们知道中国股市可能会有较大波动，许多公司的股价已经从之前的低迷状态回升至合理的估值水平，这主要是由于政策的调整。幸运的是，在这个庞大的市场中，有很多股票有着清晰的盈利增长前景。 China is positioning to preserve, but not reignite, economic growth. Policymakers recognise the need to stabilise home prices; they are not about to jeopardise the hard-won progress they've made in reducing debt by reflating the housing market. An incremental recovery in Chinese equities is the most likely outcome.中国正在努力维持经济增长，而不是让它过热。政策制定者们明白，他们需要保持房价的稳定，不会冒险通过再次刺激房地产市场来破坏他们在减少债务方面已经取得的成就。因此，预计中国股市将会出现渐进式的复苏。 China: waiting for moreA big focus heading into next year is the timing and extent of China's stimulus measures, and their potential to boost growth domestically and across the wider region, but also to export inflation. As we wait for Beijing's next move, and any response to US tariffs (if and when they happen), it's worth considering the picture facing credit investors in 2025. 中国，等待更多（刺激政策）明年，市场将密切关注中国刺激政策的出台时机和规模，这些政策不仅有望推动国内和区域经济的增长，还可能对外输出通胀。在等待北京方面的新动作以及对美国关税政策的可能反应时，我们也应该考虑2025年信贷市场投资者将面临的局面。 For example:China's property sector now makes up around5 per cent of the JP Morgan Asia Credit Non- Investment Grade index, down from over 30 per cent at its peak. This is a stronger, more balanced index.The average rating of Asian high yield bonds is now BB, with rating upgrades likely to continue, particularly in frontier Asian economies and in the BB category, where some rising stars are emerging.例如：中国房地产行业目前在摩根大通亚洲信贷非投资级指数中的占比约为5%，较其峰值时的30%以上有所下降。这表明该指数更为强劲且更加均衡。亚洲高收益债券的平均评级现在是BB级，预计评级上调的趋势将继续，特别是在亚洲前沿经济体和BB级类别中，一些新星正在崛起。 Asian high yield spreads are attractive at over 500 bps, above their 20-year average, leaving room for compression. With an average duration of just two years, Asian high yield bonds are also less sensitive to interest rate moves.亚洲高收益债券的利差目前超过500个基点，高于它们20年的平均值，这为利差的压缩留出了空间。亚洲高收益债券的平均期限仅为两年，因此对利率变动的敏感性也较低。
