北大经院 | 讲座预告(12.16-12.18)

财富   2024-12-13 18:02   北京  

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第175次北大赛瑟(CCISSR)双周讨论会

The Status of Social Protection in the World


主讲人:

Rubén Vicente Andrés(ILO Social Protection Programme Manager, ILO Beijing Office for China and Mongolia)

主持人:

郑伟(北京大学经济学院教授)

时间:

2024年12月16日(周一)

13:00-14:30

地点:

北京大学文史楼107教室

语言:

英语

主讲人简介:

Mr. Rubén Vicente has been working with the International Labour Organization (ILO) on Social Protection for more than 12 years, and has working experience in Africa, Middle East, Latin America, Europe and Asia.

摘要:

To present ILO vision on Universal Social Protection and latest figures about social protection coverage around the world.

主办单位:

北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心

北京大学经济学院风险管理与保险学系

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《行业研究前沿》课程系列

2024年第8期

变局——百年,十年,三年


主讲人:

张瑜(华创证券研究所副所长、宏观经济研究主管、首席宏观分析师)

主持人:

锁凌燕(北京大学经济学院教授)

时间:

2024年12月17日(周二)

18:40-20:30

形式:

腾讯会议

主讲人简介:

张瑜,华创证券研究所副所长、宏观经济研究主管、首席宏观分析师。兼任中国人民大学国际货币研究所研究员,中国人民大学财税研究所兼职研究员,澳门城市大学经济研究所特约研究员,中国金融四十人论坛(CF40)青年论坛会员,中国保险资产管理业协会专委会特邀研究员及资管百人,清华大学、中国人民大学、复旦大学、上海财经大学等EMBA与MBA客座讲师。

作为首席带队连续多年获得资本市场奖项。2019至2021年,连续多年获新财富最佳分析师、水晶球最佳分析师、新浪金麒麟最佳分析师、上证报最佳宏观经济分析师、金牛最具价值分析师、21世纪金牌分析师、Wind金牌分析师及路演领军人物等奖项;2022年获新财富最佳分析师第三名、水晶球最佳分析师第二名、上证报最佳分析师第二、中证报最佳分析师第二、新浪金麒麟最佳分析师第三。2023年获新浪金麒麟最佳分析师第一名、新财富最佳分析师第三名、21世纪金牌分析师第三名。

主办单位:

北京大学经济学院

北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心

北京大学中国金融研究中心

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北大经院工作坊第1018场

不争则瞒:摊派型财政下的地方应对——基于晚清厘金和关税收支的比较

 经济史工作坊 


主讲人:

郝煜(北京大学经济学院长聘副教授)

主持老师:

(北大经院)赵一泠

参与老师:

(北大经院)管汉晖、周建波

(北大光华)颜色、李波

(清华大学)徐志浩

时间:

2024年12月17日(周二)

12:00-14:00

地点:

北京大学经济学院302会议室

主讲人简介:

郝煜,北京大学经济学院长聘副教授、博士生导师,研究方向为经济史和政治经济学。毕业于北京大学和加州大学戴维斯分校,获得经济学博士学位。在Journal of Economic HistoryEconomic History ReviewExplorations in Economic History《经济学(季刊)》《中国经济史研究》等国内外期刊发表经济史相关研究论文多篇,主持国家自科面上项目和“商的长城”重点项目。

摘要:

厘金和海关税是晚清中央和地方各项支出重要来源。然而,厘金上报收入的“冻结”和海关收入的持续增长形成了鲜明对比。史料表明,厘金相当一部分收入未上报中央,而是进入了地方政府的预算外收入。本文从央地间财政分权缺乏可信承诺的角度,对这一现象提出了新的解释。甲午战争后,中央的赔款和外债支出激增,关税和厘金首当其冲的被指定为摊派对象,以其历史数额和当期金额计算各关和各省的负担比例。由于列强对赔款和外债按期偿还的刚性要求,这些摊派往往是不可讨价还价的,迫使各省和各关对于中央的其他摊派讨价还价。不过,这种讨价还价的效果在厘金和关税之间大相径庭:由于海关上报的收入被认为是准确的,当海关以行政开支和其他开支不敷为理由抗拒中央的摊派,中央只能容忍。结果,赔款外债摊派完全“挤出了”其他中央摊派,而地方开支则不受影响;对于厘金而言,由于督抚隐匿了大量厘金收入,中央往往不批准各省对厘金摊派任务的打折要求,而是要求其“设法筹措”,迫使后者隐瞒地方开支以低报收入。结果,赔款外债摊派每增加一库平两,中央其他摊派仅减少0.39两,省军事开支下降0.26两,省公共品开支下降0.06两。上述发现表明,在央地存在可信承诺问题的前提下,晚期的摊派型财政和清前期的定额包税制度是等效的。

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北大经院工作坊第1019场

The State Origin of Obedience

 经济史工作坊 


主讲人:

刘政文(北京大学经济学院助理教授)

主持老师:

(北大经院)赵一泠

参与老师:

(北大经院)管汉晖、周建波

(北大光华)颜色、李波

(清华大学)徐志浩

时间:

2024年12月17日(周二)

12:00-14:00

地点:

北京大学经济学院302会议室

主讲人简介:

Zhengwen Liu is an Assistant Professor at the School of Economics, Peking University. Her research focuses on international economics, political economy, and economic development. Her work has been published in journals including Economic Inquiry, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, and Review of Policy Research.

摘要:

Public acceptance of unequal power distribution, i.e., the culture of obedience, is an important dimension of social norms that made hierarchy societies possible in history and is still shaping the organization of modern lives today. We study the effect of centralized state history on modern people's degree of obedience. People who live in societies with a history of longer and more power-concentrated states report both a higher tendency to obey their bosses in the workplace and a higher expectation of obedience to their children. The pursuit of causal identification through independent strategies, such as second-generation immigrants in the U.S. and Europe, the dissolution of the Soviet Union as a natural experiment, and exposure to the free flow of information during adolescence, enhances our results. We also find long and power-concentrated state histories leave observable cultural footprints. We further corroborate our analysis by showing that individuals who live in societies with longer and more centralized state history also tend to participate in protests less and put more importance on national order over personal freedom.

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北大经院工作坊第1020场

Baby Boom

 经院-全健院 

 “健康与劳动经济学”工作坊 


主讲人: 

许文立

主持人: 

(北大经院)庄晨

参与老师:

(北大经院)秦雪征、施新政、石菊、姚奕、袁野、王耀璟、梁远宁

(北大全健院)刘国恩、黄成、孙宇、吕蓓妮、杨佳楠、崔知涵、潘聿航、林淑君、林昊翔、蒋少翔

时间:

2024年12月18日(周三)

10:00-11:30

地点: 

北京大学经济学院305会议室

主讲人简介: 

许文立,武汉大学经济学博士。主要聚焦中国宏观经济政策、环境气候政策、DSGE、计算经济学和DID等相关领域。主要研究成果发表在《经济研究》《经济学(季刊)》《世界经济》《数量经济技术经济研究》《财贸经济》《财政研究》,Journal of Regulatory EconomicsEconomic Analysis and PolicyEnvironmental Science and Pollution Research等中英文期刊,公开发表文章60多篇。出版了个人专著《推动绿色发展》,并主持了教育部人文社科、财政部、安徽省教育厅重点研究项目4项。研究成果先后荣获邓子基财税优秀论文奖以及安徽省社会科学优秀成果二等奖等。

摘要: 

Utilizing manually collected data from gazetteers of over 2,000 counties, we explored the impact of the Household Responsibility System (HRS) on China's fertility rate within a triple-difference framework. Our findings reveal a significant boost in fertility rates attributable to the HRS, an effect that persists after accounting for the one-child policy, fertilizer use growth, medical standards, and economic openness. The fertility-promoting impact was primarily evident from the second child onwards, although the HRS significantly reduced children's educational attainment. Post-HRS, mandatory contraceptive practices notably declined, while desires to marry remained largely unaffected. Our study substantially elucidates the population boom experienced in the 1980s.

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北大经院工作坊第1021场

Gravity’s Politics

 发展与公共财政工作坊 


主讲人:

Theo Serlin(Princeton University Postdoctoral Research Associate)

参与老师:

(北大经院)刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇、年永威

(北大国发院)李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬

(北大光华)张晓波、仇心诚

时间:

2024年12月18日(周三)

10:30-12:00

地点:

北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园245教室

主讲人简介:

Theo Serlin is a Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance at Princeton University. His work focuses on international and comparative political economy, with a particular emphasis on integrating economic geography into models of policy preferences and electoral politics. His research explores key issues such as the politics of trade, redistribution, and economic change. Dr. Serlin earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from Stanford University in 2024 and also holds an M.A. in Economics from Stanford, awarded in 2022. He graduated summa cum laude from Harvard College in 2018 with an A.B. in History. Starting in July 2025, Dr. Serlin will join the Department of Political Economy at King’s College London as an Assistant Professor. 

摘要:

Across contexts, trade flows decline with geographic distance. This paper explores the implications of that fact for politics. In a multi-region model of trade, differences in trade costs create uneven gains and losses from liberalization. This heterogeneity provides a basis for political divisions over trade policy, even in the absence of sector or factor differences. Some areas gain from lower prices and export opportunities, but regions that sell into those areas face greater competition. I calibrate this model to data on regional trade flows in the US to quantify these uneven gains and losses. This new measure captures different variation than commonly-used measures of trade exposure that ignore the geographic context. The modeled gains from liberalization are predictive of support for trade by voters and legislators, including in specifications that exploit within-unit variation in trade gains with different partners. Spatial frictions to trade create spatial cleavages over trade.


供稿:科研与博士后办公室

美编:禾轩

责编:度量、雨禾、雨田

北京大学经济学院
1902京师大学堂商学科 ·1912国立北京大学经济学门 ·1919经济学系 ·1985经济学院。学院以\x26quot;经世济民\x26quot;为己任,百余年历史,大师如林,贡献卓著。北大经院是人才培养与科学研究的重要基地、国家决策部门的重要智库、国际交流的重要平台
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