How smarter AI will change creativity
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能做这些事情的 "基础模型 "代表着人工智能（ai）的突破。它们也将带来一场革命，但这场革命将影响到工业革命从未触及的高级脑力劳动。我们无法保证未来会发生什么--毕竟，人工智能过去也曾磕磕绊绊。但现在是时候看看机器智能的下一个大事件的前景和危险了。
The “foundation models” that can do these things represent a breakthrough in artificial intelligence, or ai. They, too, promise a revolution, but this one will affect the high-status brainwork that the Industrial Revolution never touched. There are no guarantees about what lies ahead—after all, ai has stumbled in the past. But it is time to look at the promise and perils of the next big thing in machine intelligence.
基础模型是 "深度学习"（dl）的最新发展，这种技术在十年前崭露头角，如今已在人工智能领域占据主导地位。dl 系统松散地基于人脑神经元的网络结构，使用数百万或数十亿的文本、图像或声音片段实例进行 "训练"。近年来，训练越来越庞大的 dl 系统所需的时间和金钱成本不断膨胀，这让人们担心这种技术已经达到极限。一些人担心会出现 "人工智能的冬天"。但基础模型显示，构建越来越大、越来越复杂的 dl 确实能不断释放出更多令人印象深刻的新能力。
Foundation models are the latest twist on “deep learning” (dl), a technique that rose to prominence ten years ago and now dominates the field of ai. Loosely based on the networked structure of neurons in the human brain, dl systems are “trained” using millions or billions of examples of texts, images or sound clips. In recent years the ballooning cost, in time and money, of training ever-larger dl systems had prompted worries that the technique was reaching its limits. Some fretted about an “ai winter”. But foundation models show that building ever-larger and more complex dl does indeed continue to unlock ever more impressive new capabilities.
ACCELERATING TOWARD NET ZERO: THE GREEN BUSINESS BUILDING OPPORTUNITY
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要实现净零排放，各行各业都需要进行巨大、快速的变革和大规模的技术部署。这一转变将为建立全新的企业创造大量机会。
Getting to net zero will require tremendous, rapid change and large-scale technology deployment across industries. The transition will create massive opportunities to build entirely new businesses.麦肯锡最近的一份报告发现，与目前的水平相比，要在 2050 年实现净零排放，有形资产的资本支出可能需要增加 60%。到 2050 年，每年需要投资 9.2 万亿美元，其中 6.5 万亿美元将用于低排放资产和辅助基础设施。我们的分析还显示，到 2030 年，对净零排放产品不断增长的需求可在 11 个价值池中产生超过 12 万亿美元的年销售额，包括运输（每年 2.3 万亿至 2.7 万亿美元）、电力（1.0 万亿至 1.5 万亿美元）和氢气（6,500 亿至 8,500 亿美元）（见图 1）。全球经济的这种转变可为气候技术和解决方案创造巨大的增长潜力。A recent McKinsey report found that reaching net zero by 2050 could entail a 60 percent increase in capital spending on physical assets, compared with current levels. The required investments amount to $9.2 trillion per year until 2050, of which $6.5 trillion annually would go into low-emissions assets and enabling infrastructure. Our analysis also shows that growing demand for net-zero offerings could generate more than $12 trillion of annual sales by 2030 across 11 value pools, including transport ($2.3 trillion to $2.7 trillion per year), power ($1.0 trillion to $1.5 trillion), and hydrogen ($650 billion to $850 billion) (Exhibit 1). Such a transformation of the global economy could create significant growth potential for climate technologies and solutions.十一座超高摩天大楼展示了 "人类向更高处攀登的渴望"ELEVEN SUPERTALL SKYSCRAPERS THAT DEMONSTRATE THE “HUMAN ASPIRATION TO GO HIGHER”
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《超高层建筑》一书的作者斯特凡-阿尔说，超高层摩天大楼改变了我们对城市的看法。他重点介绍了过去十年中产生重大影响的 11 座高层建筑。Supertall skyscrapers have changed the way that we think about cities, says author of the book Supertall, Stefan Al. He highlights 11 tall buildings that have had a major impact over the past decade.他告诉 Dezeen："人类渴望更上一层楼，但同时又拒绝新奇事物，这两者之间形成了鲜明对比。"There’s that contrast between this human aspiration to go higher and at the same time there’s a rejection of novelty," he told Dezeen.
