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思维导图：
Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗走天涯翻译/音乐/健康
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Leaders | The envy of the world
经济学人社论｜羡煞众国
Leaders | The envy of the world
经济学人社论｜羡煞众国
America’s economy is bigger and better than ever
美国经济空前繁荣，一飞冲天
Will politics bring it back to Earth?
大选政治是否会让经济重重摔下？
Few sights have better captured America’s world-beating ingenuity. On October 13th a giant booster rocket built by SpaceX hurtled to the edge of the atmosphere before plunging back to Earth and being neatly caught by the gantry tower from which, only minutes earlier, it had taken off. Thanks to this marvel of engineering, big rockets could become reusable and space exploration cheaper and bolder. Yet, just as the launch was a testimony to American enterprise, so Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder, captures all that is going wrong with its politics. In his support for Donald Trump, Mr Musk has spread misinformation about voter fraud and hurricane relief and derided his opponents as ill-intentioned idiots.
很少有景象能如此极尽地展现美国举世无双的创造力：10月13日，SpaceX公司制造的巨型助推火箭从塔架起飞，极速冲向大气层边缘；几分钟后，火箭返回地球，并被发射塔架准确接住，堪称工程奇迹。大型火箭回收利用技术为更加经济、大胆的太空探索活动提供了可能。然而，正如此次成功发射证明了美国企业的实力，Space X创始人埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）最近的言行集中展示了美国政治面临的问题。为支持特朗普再度入主白宫，马斯克传播了一系列关于选民欺诈和飓风救援的虚假信息，并将反对者贬低为别有用心的愚蠢之人。
注释：
1. 航天史上奇迹时刻！“星舰”第5飞，“筷子夹火箭”成了
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_29024644
2. 官员敦促公众停止传播错误信息，以支持哈伦飓风的救灾工作
https://uschinadaily.com/?p=52859
背景信息补充：
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/elon-musks-newest-pet-conspiracy-is-2020-election-fraud
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/08/elon-musk-hurricane-disinformation-trump-00182769
America, too, continues to rack up a stellar economic performance even as its politics gets more poisonous. As they prepare to go to the polls in fewer than 20 days’ time, Republicans and Democrats have never mistrusted or disagreed with each other more. Against that gloomy backdrop, can America’s breathtaking economy possibly stay aloft?
放眼美国全局也是如此，其经济表现依然十分强劲，与此同时，政治环境则越来越充满恶意和对立。距离美国大选投票日不到20天，共和党和民主党之间的互相怀疑和分歧达到了前所未有的程度。政治局势如此令人沮丧，美国经济还能继续高歌猛进吗？
Over the past three decades America has left the rest of the rich world in the dust. In 1990 it accounted for about two-fifths of the gdp of the g7. Today it makes up half. Output per person is now about 30% higher than in western Europe and Canada, and 60% higher than in Japan—gaps that have roughly doubled since 1990. Mississippi may be America’s poorest state, but its hard-working residents earn, on average, more than Brits, Canadians or Germans.
过去的三十年，美国将其他富裕国家远远甩在身后。1990年，美国GDP约占G7国家GDP总和的五分之二，如今，美国GDP更是占到G7国家的一半。现在，美国的人均产出比西欧和加拿大高出约30%，比日本高出60%——这些差距相比1990年时几乎翻了一倍。密西西比州可能是美国最贫困的州，但勤劳的当地居民在平均收入方面仍然高于英国、加拿大、德国居民。
This record is now in jeopardy. As America has become more partisan, both Kamala Harris and Mr Trump, the two presidential candidates, are focusing on policies that protect their own supporters, rather than expanding the overall economic pie. America is not about to lose its economic dominance. But, sooner or later, rotten politics will start to exact a heavy price, and by then it will be hard to reverse course.
现在，美国经济奇迹岌岌可危。美国两党分歧日益加剧，两位总统候选人，无论是哈里斯还是特朗普，都专注于制定政策维护己方支持者利益，而非做大经济蛋糕。就目前，美国并不会很快失去其经济主导地位，但政治的日益衰败迟早会让美国付出沉重的代价，到那时就很难扭颓势了。
To see why, consider first the factors behind America’s success. As our special report this week sets out, innate advantages play an important role. America is a big country blessed with vast energy resources. The shale-oil revolution has driven perhaps a tenth of its economic growth since the early 2000s. The enormous size of its consumer and capital markets means that a good idea dreamt up in Michigan can make it big across America’s 49 other states.
究其原因，首先要考虑哪些因素共同造就了美国经济的成功。正如《经济学人》本周特别报道所示，美国地大物博、拥有丰富的能源，自然禀赋作用卓著。自21世纪初以来，页岩油革命推动了美国大约十分之一的经济增长。第二，美国消费体量和资本市场庞大。这就意味着，密歇根州诞生的一个好点子，可以在美国其他49个州大放异彩。
Yet good policy has been important, too. America has long married light-touch regulation with speedy and generous spending when a crisis hits. Although supersized stimulus during the pandemic fuelled inflation, it has also ensured that America has grown by 10% since 2020, three times the pace of the rest of the g7. By contrast, stingier Germany is mired in recession for a second consecutive year.
不过，好的政策也很关键。美国长期以来将宽松的监管与在危机发生时迅速而慷慨的支出结合在一起。为应对新冠所造成的经济衰退，美国实施了超大规模的强刺激政策。虽然这导致疫情期间通胀激增，但在刺激政策下，美国经济自2020年来增长了10%，是其它G7成员国增速的3倍。相比之下，德国保守谨慎的财政措施则致使经济连续两年陷入衰退。
This combination of factors has fuelled a powerful virtuous cycle. America’s dynamic private sector draws in immigrants, ideas and investment, begetting more dynamism. It is home not just to the world’s biggest rocket-launch industry, but also its internet giants and best artificial-intelligence startups. Its seven big tech firms are together worth more than the stockmarkets of Britain, Canada, Germany and Japan combined; Amazon alone spends more on research and development than all of British business. Because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, meanwhile, investors have a keen appetite for American debt. They flock to Treasuries in times of crisis, letting the government dole out vast stimulus packages.
在这些因素有力的协同作用下，美国经济实现良性循环。美国私营企业充满活力，吸引大量移民、创意和投资，进而向企业注入更多生机。美国不仅坐拥全球最大的火箭发射产业，还有互联网巨头及顶尖人工智能初创公司。美国七大科技公司的总市值超过了英国、加拿大、德国和日本的股市总和；仅亚马逊的研发投入就超过了英国企业投入之和。与此同时，美元作为世界储备货币，令美国国债受到投资者追捧。他们在危机时涌向美国国债，美国政府因而筹得资金、实施大规模的财政刺激计划。
So far, America’s worsening politics have had little visible effect on the economy. Over the past eight years Mr Trump and President Joe Biden have reached for protectionism and interventionism, in the name of helping factory workers, at the expense of the wider economy. Because America’s economic strength has been so broad-based, it has not been overturned; and for many years stimulus has provided an offsetting sugar rush. Yet the economy is not immune from politics. And as the country grows more divided, Ms Harris and Mr Trump are promising ever more damaging policies—Mr Trump especially.
到目前为止，美国不断恶化的政治还未对经济产生显著影响。过去8年中，特朗普以及现任总统拜登，打着帮助产业工人的旗号，推行贸易保护和政府干预，损害了整体经济。但由于美国的经济优势的基础还较为深厚，其发展势头还能维持；而且多年来的刺激政策带来一阵“经济甜蜜期”（短期内经济的快速增长），抵消了不利的政治影响。然而，经济还是会受到政治的牵动。随着美国政治极化、两党分歧加剧，哈里斯和特朗普都在竞选中提出了可能对美国经济造成更大破坏的政策，尤其是特朗普。
For a start, both candidates would tamper with the market forces that have served America so well, by protecting some companies at the expense of others. They could also limit the government’s scope to swoop to the rescue next time a crisis hits. Both promise tax and spending giveaways—Ms Harris wants to spend more on families; Mr Trump to offer tax relief on everything from car loans to overtime work. Yet neither has a plan to rein in the budget deficit, which is running at around 6% of GDP, a level usually seen only during wartime or recession. Unchecked deficit spending could crowd out private investment and erode faith in American debt as a risk-free asset.
首先，两位候选人都会以牺牲其他公司利益为代价来保护某些公司，这会破坏美国长期以来行之有效的市场经济体系。倘若经济危机再次发生，他们还可能缩小政府经济纾困的规模。两人都承诺在税收和支出方面给予优惠——哈里斯希望在家庭方面增加支出；特朗普希望对从汽车贷款到加班工作等各方面给予税收减免。然而，两人都未提出控制预算赤字的计划。目前预算赤字约达到国内生产总值的6%，这一水平通常只在战时或经济衰退期间才会出现。赤字支出失控可能会抑制私人投资，并削弱投资者对美国国债作为无风险资产的信心。
Mr Trump poses the bigger risk to America’s extraordinary economy. He speaks of imposing ruinous tariffs on imports and embarking on huge programmes to deport millions of non-citizens, many of whom have been fully integrated into the labour market for years. He is cavalier about institutions, including the Federal Reserve and the rule of law. Should the independence of either be undermined, America would no longer attract the talent and money it needs to keep pushing relentlessly ahead. Nobody knows if Mr Trump means what he says, but the chance that he does hangs heavily over his candidacy, like Mr Musk’s rocket over the launch pad.
特朗普对美国经济发展构成更大风险。他表示要对进口商品征收高额关税，还计划驱逐数百万非美国公民，这其中许多人已在美国生活多年，是劳动力市场的重要组成部分。特朗普对国家机构和制度态度轻率，轻视美联储、漠视法治。无论是美联储还是法治，若其独立性受到破坏，美国都将丧失对人才和资金的吸引力，丧失蓬勃发展的推进力。谁都不敢确定特朗普上面所说是否真的会落到实处，但这些任性的政策就像是达摩克利斯之剑高高悬于美国头顶，选特朗普的选民必须得考虑到这一点。也正如马斯克的火箭，孤悬于发射塔架之上，一声令下、就能升空。
Mission critical
重要使命
Growth is not an inalienable right, but a gift to be cherished and nurtured. If the virtuous cycle that propels America’s economy forward goes into reverse, toxic politics would by that point be ingrained. There is no knowing how bad a president’s ideas have to be before things start to fall apart. The turning-point may not come tomorrow, or even in the next four years. But with every mistake that politicians make, it draws another step closer.
经济增长并非造物者赋予的、不可剥夺的权利，而是一种需要珍惜和精心培育的宝贵资源。美国经济在良性循环中不断前进，如果循环逆转，有害的政治风气将根深蒂固。人们无从知晓，总统的政见糟糕到何种程度才会导致经济崩盘。临界点可能不会在明天出现，甚至未来四年也不会到来。但政客每犯下一个错误，就会离转折点更近一步。
注释：本段开头第一句inalienable right 来自《独立宣言》中的名句：We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.
翻译组：
Leon，男，驻外民工，经济学人读者
Jessie，女，翻译界林黛玉，想被人叫大佬
Humi，在躺平、侧卧和睡梦中寻找诗和远方
校对组：
UU，保持低调
Hannah，女，做个废柴，保持愉快
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感想
本期感想：
Benjamin，初学翻译，爱红酒，爱美食
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愿景
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