本周封面故事 | 为何哈里斯胜特朗普？揭秘美国大选内幕

财富 2024-11-04 11:04 浙江

写在前面

《经济学人》发表了2024年美国总统大选的支持声明，选择支持卡玛拉·哈里斯而非唐纳德·特朗普。文章解释了这一决定的原因，强调虽然哈里斯可能是一位平庸的总统，但特朗普的政策更为激进，可能对美国和世界造成不可接受的风险。杂志认为，尽管特朗普的第一任期有一些成就，但第二任期的潜在风险被许多选民低估了。

精读|翻译|词组

Cover Story

How we chose this week’s image

This week we published our endorsement leader—an increasingly unfashionable undertaking, it turns out. But we still think the practice is worthwhile. An endorsement captures the mood, it distils the campaign’s themes and, amid the din and chaos of the candidates’ closing arguments, it helps clarify thinking. Who knows, it might even change some readers’ minds.

Tone is everything, and this year we decided to address our cover editorial to a particular set of Trump voters—not MAGA diehards or aggressive nationalists, but pragmatic, Economist-reading Republicans. These voters might not like or admire Mr Trump, but they probably look on Democratic criticism of him as wildly over the top. For them, putting Mr Trump in the White House is a calculated risk that his second term, like his first, will turn out just fine. Our leader argues that this calculation is reckless.

This is a classic endorsement cover. Kamala Harris is striding towards the camera, contemplating the momentous task that awaits her. It’s good, but it fails to capture our approach.

Our argument is not that Ms Harris promises to be a brilliant president. She is an underwhelming machine politician who has struggled to tell voters what she wants to do with power. Some of her policies, on climate and abortion, say, are unambiguously better than Mr Trump’s; but others, on trade and the deficit, for example, are merely less bad. A number, including her taste for regulation and for further taxing wealth creation, are worse.

Despite that, you cannot imagine President Harris single-handedly steering America or the world towards disaster. Unfortunately, Mr Trump is a lot more dangerous. To get that across, we needed to take the unorthodox step of featuring the candidate we were rejecting.

Here he is. It’s powerful, but it’s gloomy and menacing and that, too, clashes with our approach.

Pragmatic Trump voters are infuriated when the former president’s critics cannot bring themselves to admit that he ever did anything good. Our endorsement therefore takes pains to acknowledge what Mr Trump accomplished in his first term, before getting onto why a second might be different. If readers thought they were getting a Jeremiad, they would turn the page. We needed our cover to be less portentous.

This idea borrows a well-worn plot device from cartoons and B-movies to portray a Trump presidency as a countdown to disaster. Can America stamp out the burning fuse in time?

The nub of our argument is that calculating Trump voters have got their sums wrong. America may well breeze through four more years of Mr Trump, as it has the presidencies of other flawed men from both parties. The country may even thrive. But voters claiming to be hard-headed are overlooking the tail risk.

Compared with his first term, Mr Trump has worse policies, the world is more perilous and many of the sober, responsible people who reined in his most dangerous instincts have been replaced by true believers, toadies and chancers. By making Mr Trump leader of the free world, Americans would be gambling with the economy and the rule of law and risking even greater international instability.

The burning fuse doesn’t quite get this across, because the next thing that happens is an explosion. Our argument is more subtle. We cannot quantify the chance that something will go badly wrong: nobody can. But we believe voters who minimise it are deluding themselves.

This was much better. It reminds calculating Republicans that Mr Trump is not a person they would want to do business with, nor any kind of role model for their children. The trouble is that this tie-less charmer doesn’t look very much like the man sweating and gurning his way through a MAGA rally. We needed a more evocative image.

This goes too far. The former president has become Jabba the Hutt. Humour has crossed into contempt. As with the images of gloom, pragmatic Trump voters will assume that we are not prepared to enter into the weighing up of pros and cons that is animating them. If they think we are telling them that backing Mr Trump would define them as stupid or immoral, we won’t change a single mind.

This hits the spot. Mr Trump has his tie back on. Compared with the matinee idol, he seems to have gained a few pounds. Those sparkling gnashers supply all the editorialising we need.

What about the headline? The small-print joke fits our theme, but it could be taken to mean that we are endorsing Mr Trump (with reservations). By contrast, “Not again” is strong and unambiguous, and was the cover that some of us wanted. In the end, though, we preferred a sprinkling of irony.

Presidents do not have to be saints, and we hope that a second Trump presidency would avoid disaster. But Mr Trump poses an unacceptable risk to America and the world. That is why we backed Ms Harris.

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

01 经济学人打卡营

每周一到周六阅读经济学人

并在群里以及小鹅通内写分享

分享是文章的总结或者观点或者语音打卡

字数不少于100字，中英文都可以

群里每周免费分享最新外刊合集

点击下图，即可了解打卡营详情！

02 早起打卡营

两年以来，小编已经带着25000多人早起打卡

早起倒逼自己早睡，戒掉夜宵，戒掉手机

让你成为更好的自己，创造早睡早起的奇迹！

早起是最简单的自律！

早起打卡营

欢迎你的加入！

点击下图，即可了解打卡营详情！

http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1MDQwNTgzMg==&mid=2247553366&idx=1&sn=4a1af81b0cc423ab8b73c600e75147f7

一天一篇经济学人

现在很多人都不知道自己热爱什么，追求什么，只是找到一个标签后就认为找到了人生的意义。我们是谁不重要，我们想成为谁很重要！当你什么都没有的时候，你想尽可能多的包装自己；当你内心充盈足够自信的时候，你只想做你自己，而且是更好的自己。

最新文章

「脆弱世界，禁不起第二任川普」，《經濟學人》支持賀錦麗

第二十二期经济学人打卡营（1111-1208）

第138期六点早起打卡营（1111-1208）

本周封面故事 | 为何哈里斯胜特朗普？揭秘美国大选内幕

四个魔法词化解孩子情绪爆发！ | 今日心理学

TikTok语言革命：揭秘年轻人如何重塑英语 | 经济学人文化

第二十一期经济学人打卡营（1104-1201）

第137期六点早起打卡营（1104-1201）

股市崩盘后，为什么你还应该投资？| 经济学人财经

特朗普会是美国经济的定时炸弹吗？ | 经济学人社论

第二十一期经济学人打卡营（1104-1201）

第137期六点早起打卡营（1104-1201）

中译英｜张培基散文佳作之《黄龙奇观》（中译英小组持续招募成员）

本周封面故事 | 一针治百病？揭秘GLP-1药物的惊人效果与潜在革命

杨笠"普信男"风波：揭秘中国脱口秀界的性别战争| 经济学人

第二十一期经济学人打卡营（1104-1201）

第137期六点早起打卡营（1104-1201）

我们招人啦（现有一笔18+，文化组和中译英小组欢迎加入！)

腌黄瓜热潮：揭秘为何全球食客为之疯狂 | 经济学人文化

第二十一期经济学人打卡营（1104-1201）

特朗普减税承诺背后：美国经济的隐忧与挑战| 经济学人财经

第二十一期经济学人打卡营（1104-1201）

第137期六点早起打卡营（1104-1201）

印度经济神话破灭？ | 经济学人

分手后，别再想本可以怎样 | 今日心理学

本周封面故事 | 美国经济奇迹背后的隐忧

第二十一期经济学人打卡营（1104-1201）

第137期六点早起打卡营（1104-1201）

如何选出真正优秀的管理者？ | 经济学人商业

第二十一期经济学人打卡营（1104-1201）

第137期六点早起打卡营（1104-1201）

为什么经济数据都是“重磅发布” ？| 经济学人财经

第二十一期经济学人打卡营（1104-1201）

第137期六点早起打卡营（1104-1201）

霉霉背书能左右美国大选吗？ | 经济学人

第二十一期经济学人打卡营（1104-1201）

第137期六点早起打卡营（1104-1201）

中译英｜我们还喜欢读鲁迅（祝公众号7岁生日快乐）

本周封面故事 | 特朗普影子下的美国大选：哈里斯如何继承他的政策遗产？

如何找到真爱，做最真实的自己 | 今日心理学

关于早起，经济学人打卡以及付费社群

人性本贪婪吗？ | 今日心理学（对股市要有敬畏之心）

关于早起，经济学人打卡以及付费社群

本周封面故事 | 中东火药桶：以色列多线冲突内幕

7招击败拖延症 | 今日心理学（国庆快乐）

本周封面故事 | 全球领袖困境与突围之道

我们招人啦（翻译团队现有一笔18+，博士6人，欢迎加入！)

股市暴涨，请保持冷静！

马提尼如何成为世界上最具标志性的鸡尾酒 | 经济学人文化

第二十期经济学人打卡营

分类

时事

民生

政务

教育

文化

科技

财富

体娱

健康

情感

旅行

百科

职场

楼市

企业

乐活

学术

汽车

时尚

创业

美食

幽默

美体

文摘

原创标签

时事社会财经军事教育体育科技汽车科学房产搞笑综艺明星音乐动漫游戏时尚健康旅游美食生活摄影宠物职场育儿情感小说曲艺文化历史三农文学娱乐电影视频图片新闻宗教电视剧纪录片广告创意壁纸头像心灵鸡汤星座命理教育培训艺术文化金融财经健康医疗美妆时尚餐饮美食母婴育儿社会新闻工业农业时事政治星座占卜幽默笑话独立短篇连载作品文化历史科技互联网

发布位置

广东北京山东江苏河南浙江山西福建河北上海四川陕西湖南安徽湖北内蒙古江西云南广西甘肃辽宁黑龙江贵州新疆重庆吉林天津海南青海宁夏西藏香港澳门台湾美国加拿大澳大利亚日本新加坡英国西班牙新西兰韩国泰国法国德国意大利缅甸菲律宾马来西亚越南荷兰柬埔寨俄罗斯巴西智利卢森堡芬兰瑞典比利时瑞士土耳其斐济挪威朝鲜尼日利亚阿根廷匈牙利爱尔兰印度老挝葡萄牙乌克兰印度尼西亚哈萨克斯坦塔吉克斯坦希腊南非蒙古奥地利肯尼亚加纳丹麦津巴布韦埃及坦桑尼亚捷克阿联酋安哥拉