Leaders | The presidential election英文部分选自经济学人20241109期社论版块
Leaders | The presidential election经济学人社论 | 美国总统大选
欢迎来到特朗普的世界
His sweeping victory will shake up everything
大获全胜，翻天覆地
A STUNNING VICTORY has crowned Donald Trump the most consequential American president since Franklin D. Roosevelt. After defeating Kamala Harris—and not just narrowly, but by a wide margin—America’s 45th president will become its 47th. The fact that Mr Trump will be the first to win non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland in 1892 does not start to do justice to his achievement. He has defined a new political era, for America and the world.一场惊天胜局将唐纳德·特朗普加冕为自富兰克林·D·罗斯福以来最具影响力的美国总统。在击败卡玛拉·哈里斯之后——并非险胜，而是大获全胜——美国的第45任总统将成为第47任总统。特朗普将成为自1892年格罗弗·克利夫兰以来首位赢得非连续任期的总统，这一事实只是其辉煌成就的冰山一角。他为美国乃至整个世界定义了一个新的政治时代。In some ways the Trump era is very modern. It was made possible by technological changes and media fragmentation, at a time when distinguishing law from politics and politics from showbiz is hard. But it is also a return to an old idea of America. Before the fight against fascism convinced FDR that it was in his country’s interest to help bring order and prosperity to the world, the country was hostile towards immigration, scornful of trade and sceptical of foreign entanglements. In the 1920s and 1930s that led to dark times. It could do so again.在某些方面，特朗普时代非常现代化。当今时代，法律与政治、政治与演艺界之间的界限模糊难分，技术变革与媒体碎片化推动了特朗普时代朝现代性迈进。但这也标志着重新回到旧观念中的美国。在反法西斯斗争使得罗斯福相信维护世界秩序与促进世界繁荣符合美国国家利益之前，美国曾对移民怀有敌意，轻视贸易并避免介入他国事务。在上世纪二三十年代，这些立场曾导致黑暗时期，而如今历史或许会重演。After Tuesday’s victory, the world now lies at Mr Trump’s feet. He has won a mandate and, most probably, the control over Washington he needs to exercise it. In what was supposed to be a knife-edge election, Mr Trump not only carried most of the battleground states. Thanks to big swings in states that were never in doubt, including Florida, New Jersey and New York, he also won the popular vote. As the polls predicted, he enjoyed a big surge in support from Latino men. But women, whom Ms Harris had expected to throng to the polls for her, also swung towards Mr Trump. His victory will be made complete by Republicans retaking the majority in the Senate and, as seems likely, holding on to the House.在周二拿下总统之位后，世界仿佛已在特朗普的掌控之中。他获得了选民的授权，并且很可能赢得了行使权力所需的对美国政府的控制权。在这场原本被认为胜负难分的选举中，特朗普不仅拿下了大多数摇摆州，而且逆转了佛罗里达州、新泽西州、纽约州等先前一直毫无悬念支持民主党的蓝州，从而在普选中获得胜利。正如民调预测，他在拉丁裔男性选民中的支持率大幅上升，而哈里斯曾期望会蜂拥去投票支持她的女性也转向支持特朗普。共和党将重新夺回参议院的多数席位，并有可能保住众议院席位，这将使他的胜利更加圆满。
There will be time for recriminations among Democrats about what went wrong, but the early answer is: almost everything. Poll after poll said that the country under President Joe Biden was going in the wrong direction. Voters never forgave him for the burst of inflation that began in the summer of 2021. The Biden administration promoted a view of culture that is out of step with most Americans, especially on gender, which featured in a huge share of Trump campaign adverts. Most damaging of all, voters throughout the country were infuriated by the Democrats’ failure to stop people crossing the southern border illegally. And the party compounded its errors by covering up Mr Biden’s disqualifying frailty until it was undeniable. But by then they had no time to find a political talent capable of beating Mr Trump.接下来民主党人将有时间就问题出在哪里而相互指责，但初步答案是：几乎诸事皆错。民调一再显示，在拜登总统领导下的美国过去一直朝着错误的方向发展。2021年夏季通货膨胀爆发，选民从未就此事原谅他。拜登政府倡导的文化理念与大多数美国人的观念格格不入，尤其是在性别问题上，而这一议题在特朗普的竞选广告中占据了很大比重。最对民主党造成毁灭性打击的是，全国各地的选民对它未能阻止移民非法越过南部边境而感到极度愤怒。错上加错的是，民主党掩盖拜登身体虚弱无法胜任总统职位的事实，直到这一问题已经昭然若揭。届时，他们已无力再找一位能够击败特朗普的政治能人。Something deeper is afoot, too. In 2016 some of America’s allies comforted themselves with the thought that Mr Trump’s presidency was an aberration. By choosing to overlook his attempts to stop the transfer of power to Mr Biden in 2020, voters have shown just how wrong that conclusion was. Instead they have endorsed Mr Trump’s relentless use of partisanship as the basis of his politics, including the slander of his opponents as corrupt and treacherous—spreading a cynicism and despair about the merits of democracy that may serve him, but will not serve America. MAGA is a movement of iconoclasm against the kind of benign internationalists who had occupied the White House for 70 years. This week a majority of Americans embraced it knowingly.特朗普获胜的背后还有更深层次的原因。2016年，美国的一些盟友曾自我安慰，认为特朗普当选总统只是一场意外。2020年，特朗普试图阻止将权力交接给拜登，而选民们选择视若无睹，这说明美国盟友的结论大错特错。选民们支持特朗普持续将党派主义作为其政治手段的基础，包括给竞争对手扣上“贪污腐败”、“奸诈阴险”的帽子，这让更多民众对美国民主体制产生怀疑和绝望之心。这或许对特朗普有利，但对整个国家而言并无益处。MAGA（“Make America Great Again”，让美国再次伟大）是一场针对已主导白宫七十年之久的温和国际主义者的破旧立新运动。大多数美国民众对此心知肚明，在本周对这场运动投出了赞成票。注释：
1.afoot: If you say that a plan or scheme is afoot, it is already happening or being planned, but you do not know much about it.正在发生的
2.aberration: a fact, an action or a way of behaving that is not usual, and that may be unacceptable 脱离常规；反常现象；异常行为
3.Partisanship is support for a person or group without fair consideration of the facts and circumstances.党派性，党派偏见
4.iconoclasm: the action of attacking or assertively rejecting cherished beliefs and institutions or established values and practices打破旧习If Mr Trump has wrecked the old order, what will take its place? Whereas the old America championed free trade, Mr Trump will accelerate the return to pre-war mercantilism. He is a staunch believer in tariffs. Trade deficits, he claims, are proof that foreigners are taking his country for fools and losers. On his watch America is likely to be spendthrift, as he and his party push through tax cuts, which will further widen the budget deficit. Mr Trump has promised massive deregulation. That may well bring benefits, but the next president craves sycophancy. There is a risk he will carve out special deals for his supporters, such as Elon Musk, the world’s richest man.如果说特朗普已经“破旧”，那么他将如何“立新”？旧时代的美国倡导自由贸易，而特朗普将推动加速回归战前重商主义。他极力推崇加征关税，认为美国发生贸易逆差是外国将美国当作“傻子和失败者”的证据。在他执政期间，美国很有可能变得挥霍无度，因为他和他的政党所推行的减税政策将进一步扩大预算赤字。特朗普已承诺将大规模放宽监管，这可能会带来好处。但这位候任总统渴望得到阿谀奉承，因此存在一种风险，即他可能会借此为他的支持者（如全球首富埃隆·马斯克）谋取特殊利益。注释：
1.Mercantilism is aneconomic practice by which governments used their economies to augment state power at the expense of other countries. Governments sought to ensure that exports exceeded imports and to accumulate wealth in the form of bullion (mostly gold and silver). In mercantilism, wealth is viewed as finite and trade as a zero-sum game.重商主义
2.be on one's watch: under one's supervision; while one is in a position of power, authority, or responsibility.在某人监管下
3.spendthrift: someone who spends too much money.花钱无度的人
4.Deregulation is the removal of controls and restrictions in a particular area of business or trade.撤销监管，放松管制
5.sycophancy: obsequious behaviour towards someone important in order to gain advantage谄媚Our hope is that Mr Trump will manage to avoid these pitfalls, and we acknowledge that in his first term he mostly did. Our fear is that during this presidency he will be at his most radical and unrestrained, especially if, as America’s oldest-ever president, his mental powers begin to fail him. Having learned from Trump 1, his team will set out to ensure that no one who is likely to restrain him will be appointed to the administration. Mr Trump will therefore be able to put his control of Congress and his popular mandate to maximum use.我们希望特朗普能够设法避开这些陷阱，并且我们也不得不承认，他在第一任期内大体上做到了这一点。我们担忧的是，在第二次任期内，他可能会变得更加激进且毫无顾忌。作为美国历史上最年长的总统，特朗普的心智能力一旦开始衰退，就尤为可能出现这种情况。在吸取第一任期的教训后，他的团队会确保不会让任何可能对他构成约束的人进入政府。因此，特朗普将能够最大限度地利用他对国会的掌控力和民众赋予他的权力。In the decades after FDR American foreign policy worked through long-standing alliances. By contrast, Mr Trump’s instincts are to treat every encounter like a deal where money is to be made. He likes to say he is so unpredictable that America’s adversaries will be too cowed to try anything. He may indeed be able to strike a deal with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine...
在罗斯福总统之后的几十年里，美国的外交政策依赖于长期的盟友关系。相比之下，特朗普倾向于把每一次接触都当作是一笔可以赚钱的交易。他总是说他难以揣测，让美国的对手害怕到不敢轻举妄动。或许他确实能与普京就乌克兰问题达成协议。
What is certain is that his unpredictability will impose costs on America’s allies, especially in Europe. If they fear they cannot depend on Mr Trump to support them if they are threatened, they will take steps to protect themselves. At the very least America’s allies will need to spend more on their own defence. If they cannot muster enough conventional weapons to deter the local aggressor, more of them, besides Britain and France, may get nuclear weapons.毫无疑问，他的不可揣测将使美国盟友付出代价，尤其是欧洲。如果盟国担心，自己遭遇威胁时，特朗普指望不上，那它们就会采取措施自保。至少，美国的盟友将需要在自身国防上投入更多。如果它们无法部署足够的常规武器，来威慑当地的侵略者，那不止是英国和法国，还会有更多盟国可能会发展核武器。
Part of America’s global leadership was through the power of example. In its own politics and in its international conduct it was mindful of the precedents it was setting. What was remarkable was not that American presidents sometimes broke the rules, but how much they stuck by them. Under Mr Trump the converse will be true. His victory will have a demonstration effect elsewhere. In Brazil Jair Bolsonaro was elected two years after Mr Trump won in 2016. In France Marine Le Pen now seems a more likely president in 2027. The international movement of nationalist populists that seemed to be waning after 2020 will be revived, and Mr Trump will inspire new imitators. If he uses the justice system against his opponents, as he has vowed, it will set a dangerous example.美国的全球领导力一定程度上源于其榜样作用。无论是国内政治，还是国际行为，美国始终牢记自己开创的先例。美国的总统通常以遵守规则著称，即便偶尔打破规则也是例外。但在特朗普的领导下，情况恰恰相反。他的胜利将在全球产生示范效应。在巴西，雅伊尔·博索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）在特朗普2016年获胜两年后当选。在法国，现在看来玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）似乎很有可能在2027年当选总统。民族主义民粹主义运动似乎在2020年后逐渐式微，未来将再次抬头，特朗普会激发新的效仿者。如果如他誓言所说，他要利用司法系统对付对手，这样的榜样恐怕极为危险。The old order in the new worldMr Trump’s victory has changed America, and the world will need to grasp what that means. America remains the pre-eminent power. Despite the debasement of its politics, its economy remains world-beating—at least for now. It dominates artificial intelligence. It is rich and its armed forces are second-to-none...特朗普的胜利改变了美国，而全球需要领会这意味着什么。美国仍然是世界上无可匹敌的强国。尽管美国政治地位有所衰落，但其经济依旧举世无双——至少目前如此。它主宰了人工智能领域，它国力雄厚，它的武装力量也首屈一指。However, without American enlightened self-interest as an organising principle, it will be open season for bullies. Countries will be more able to browbeat their neighbours, economically and militarily, without fear of consequences. Their victims, unable to turn to America for relief, will be more likely to compromise or capitulate. Global initiatives, from tackling climate change to arms control, have just got harder.然而，如果美国不再把“开明的利己主义”作为全球秩序的指导原则，世界将进入一个弱肉强食的时代。各国可以在经济、军事上更加肆意地威胁邻国，无需担心后果。受害者由于无法向美国求助，更有可能被迫妥协或屈服。推进应对气候变化、军备控制等全球倡议也将变得更加困难。Mr Trump would no doubt retort that this is the world’s problem, not America’s. Under him, Americans can get on with their lives free from the weight of foreign responsibilities. However, two world wars and the ruinous collapse of trade in the 1930s say that America does not have that luxury. For a time—possibly for years—America may do fine. Eventually, the world will catch up with it.毫无疑问，特朗普会反驳说，这是世界的问题，不是美国的问题。在他的领导下，美国人可以摆脱外部责任的重压，继续过好自己的生活。然而，两次世界大战和上世纪30年代的毁灭性贸易崩盘表明，美国并没有这种奢侈的选择。短时间内，或许是数年之内，美国可能会过得很好。但最终，还是甩不开整个世界。翻译组：
Ryan，学海无涯，译无止境
Leon，男，驻外民工，经济学人读者
校对组：
Vince，语言是前进路上的一道光
Hannah，女，做个废柴，保持愉快
感想
本期感想作者
Neil，男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉
这个世界是由疯子推动的，马斯克和特朗普都是疯子，马斯克改变了整个汽车行业，提出了很多疯狂的想法，基本都实现了。特朗普也疯狂，不满美国的现状，想让美国更加强大，处处以美国利益为先，第一任任期也基本实现了。两个疯狂的人加一起，整个世界更疯狂了。
近看几年，疯子们在各地形成相当态势。欧疯们可能在2027年大选中获胜。想想这些年，世界各地人民的日子也是苦哈哈的，生活在严重通胀或战火中。先前的领导者，扛着为人民谋福祉的大旗，疯狂大撒币，搞得物价飞涨。特别是拜登老先生，国内玩“阳谋”，国际玩阴谋，妥妥一阴阳大师。民主党不是玩疯了，而是着魔了。在俄乌、中东问题上，口号喊得响，为了世界和平，核心价值观很正，实际是把世界变成严重对立的两级。和这样有所为“价值观”的人相处是最累的。
别看特朗普是个疯子，其实跟他相处反而简单。他是个成功的商人，以利益为重，懂得为了利益可以相互交换。他的政策看似荒唐，相比民主党，对美国的发展更有利。一天结束战争，虽然是个吹牛的话，但是有战略眼光。与其到处战争树敌，还不如化敌为友。加关税也是一个谈判的筹码，多买点美国货，利益交换就可以。不是移民有问题，而是科技带来性价比，管理人的难度比管理机器难多了。
当然所有的政策并不都是完美的，治国如烹小鲜，能照顾大多数的利益就属不容易。有一点是肯定的，特朗普并非是个完美的选择，但如果选择哈里斯延续民主党以往的政策害人害己，还不如让特朗普来搅局。最起码过去的4年任期，特朗普还算交了一个不错的成绩，接下来四年是否能真的MAGA，还是让人期待啊。打造
独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习
01 经济学人打卡营 ![]()
每周一到周六阅读经济学人
并在群里以及小鹅通内写分享
分享是文章的总结或者观点或者语音打卡
字数不少于100字，中英文都可以
群里每周免费分享最新外刊合集
点击下图，即可了解打卡营详情！
![]()
02 早起打卡营 ![]()
![]()
