魏尚进：中国经济刺激方案对世界经济的影响

点击 复旦金融评论 > 点击右上角“···” > 设为星标⭐

■作者：魏尚进 复旦大学国际金融学院学术访问教授、哥伦比亚大学终身讲席教授、亚洲开发银行前首席经济学家

■公众号：复旦金融评论

中国新的经济刺激计划的推出时机并非偶然。在中华人民共和国成立75周年前夕推出，可以被视为对国庆的献礼。经济刺激方案的消息，促使中国股市的几个主要股票指数大幅上涨超过了15%，表明其受到了股市投资者的热烈欢迎。

这次新推出的一揽子计划让人回想起2008年底中国为应对2008至2010年全球金融危机而实施的四万亿（约合5600亿美元）刺激计划。当时的“四万亿计划”成功地使中国成为极少数未陷入严重衰退的主要经济体之一，并在2010年将中国的实际GDP增长率推高至10%。

在全球多数地区深陷衰退之际，四万亿刺激计划还为其他国家提振了迫切需要的全球需求。美国、日本、韩国，东南亚诸国，拉美需要大宗商品的出口国都因此受益，缩短了它们需要忍受经济萧条的时间，有些国家（比如澳大利亚）甚至因此避免了经济萧条。

中国这一次的刺激计划到底能有多大的全球影响将取决于几个关键因素，其中包括刺激计划的规模和范围、其在促进国内增长方面的成效，以及中国与全球其他国家当下经济联系的紧密程度。

这轮的刺激计划不仅是9月24日人民银行宣布的措施，具体说来有三个组成部分。首先，在货币政策部分，它通过下调基准利率20个基点、房贷利率50个基点，商业银行存款准备金率50个基点来大大增加市场流动性。其次，它试图通过减少新房购买的最低首付要求来提振房地产行业。地方政府也实施了其他措施以促进购房需求。第三，市场普遍预期不久将出台新的财政措施，很可能包括向低收入家庭和有子女的家庭提供现金转移支付。

逻辑上说，中国近期股价的飙升可能既反映了对更高通货膨胀的预期——这将提升名义利润，也反映市场对企业实际和整体经济基本面增强的预期。这两个因素对中国经济乃至全球其他地区的影响各有不同。

在此时刻，中国经济需要略多一些通胀。在2023年9月，我曾主张中国应该实施大规模刺激计划，以避免陷入债务-通缩螺旋的的恶性循环[1]。换句话说，当前的刺激计划若能在一年前推出的话就更为理想。但迟做要比不做好。

从金融市场的反应来看，刺激计划的出台缓解了人们对于政府是否愿意并有能力采取果断措施刺激经济增长的疑虑。股市投资者的信心似乎得到了增强，他们现在更加相信中国有能力扭转当前的经济局势，并预计在2024年最后一个季度以及2025年实现更加强劲的增长。

中国和世界都需要拭目以待，看看这种乐观情绪是否会在未来几个月和几年转化为消费者信心的增强、各类所有制企业的实际投资增长，包括外国直接投资的回暖。如果这波股价的上涨最终证明是由中国经济基本面的强劲复苏所驱动，而不仅仅是名义价格的上涨，那么其对全球经济的正面溢出效应将会更加显著。

在发达经济体中，澳大利亚和韩国预计将从中国经济的复苏中获得最大的利益。尤其是如果中国房地产市场也出现部分回暖，这将刺激对澳大利亚铁矿石和其他原材料的需求。韩国作为中国区域和全球价值链中的关键上游行业参与者，其工业出口可能会因中国需求上升而大大受益。

如果中国家庭增加消费意愿，那么生产奢侈品或吸引中国游客的国家，例如法国和意大利，可能在未来几个月内，尤其是在2025年1月底的中国新年期间，获得显著的经济利益。

相比之下，虽然美国曾经从中国上一波2008的四万亿经济刺激中大大获益，由于其近年来对中国实施了多项贸易限制和技术出口禁令，预计美国从中国经济这次复苏中获得的收益将相对有限。

日本是中国2008年刺激计划的主要受益者之一，许多日本公司与韩国同行一样，是中国公司的关键供应商。同时，日本也是中国游客青睐的旅游目的地。不过中国这次刺激计划的推出在东京股市没有引起明显的兴奋。究其原因可能有其他巧合的因素。据媒体报道指出，当下日本股市投资者对日本新任首相石原茂的经济政策的担忧可能对冲掉了关于中国经济刺激政策消息的影响。

在发展中国家，泰国和马来西亚等东南亚国家作为中国企业产业链的组成部分，以及智利和阿根廷等主要大宗商品生产国，可能会因中国对大宗商品和工业原材料需求的增长而获益。

宏观刺激计划是中国恢复增长的重要第一步。为了释放中国的长期增长潜力，中国还必须实施进一步的结构性改革。这将包括继续优化所有企业的营商环境，包括对非国有企业和外资企业的支持。这样的改革将激励更多企业家增加投资和创新，同时鼓励家庭增加消费。中国更强劲的增长不仅将提升本国公民的生活水平，还将为世界其他地区带来更显著的正面溢出效应。 

  推荐阅读  

The Global Implications of China’s Stimulus Package

Shang-Jin Wei

Editor-in-chief of Fudan Financial Review

Professor of Finance and Economics of Columbia University

The timing of China’s new stimulus package is not coincidental. Arriving just before the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic, the announcement was well-received by stock market investors, leading to a surge by more than 15% in the country’s main stock indices.

The new package is reminiscent of the CN¥4trillion ($560 billion) stimulus China introduced in late 2008 to shield its economy from the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2010. That earlier package successfully made China one of the very few major economies that did not fall into a severe recession and in fact raised China’s real GDP growth to 10% in 2010.

It also provided a much-needed boost to global demand for other countries at a time when much of the world was in the grip of a severe recession. The United States, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asian nations, and many commodity exporters all benefited from China’s stimulus, and endured a shorter recession than it otherwise would. Some countries such as Australia even avoided a recession altogether partly because of China’s large stimulus package.

This time, the global impact of China’s stimulus package will hinge on several key factors, including its size and reach, its success in enhancing domestic growth, and the strength of the country’s economic ties to other countries.

The current stimulus package goes beyond what was announced by the Governor of the People’s Bank of China and consists of three main components. First, in terms of monetary policy, it increases liquidity by cutting baseline interest rates by 20 basis points, reducing mortgage rates by 50 basis points, and lowering commercial banks’ required reserve ratio by 50 basis points. Second, it seeks to revive the real-estate sector by lowering the minimum down payment on new home purchases. This is complemented by additional measures from local governments to boost demand for home purchases. Third, there is a strong anticipation of new fiscal measures to be rolled out soon, that will likely include cash transfers to low-income households and families with young children.

The recent surge in Chinese stock prices could logically reflect both expectations of higher inflation, which would raise nominal profits, and anticipation of a strengthening of real corporate and economy-wide fundamentals. The two components have different implications for China’s economy and the rest of the world.

At this point, the Chinese economy could benefit from a bit of rise in inflation. In September 2023, I argued that China should have implemented a large-scale stimulus package to pull itself back from the brink of a debt-deflation spiral[1]. In other words, the current stimulus should have come one year earlier. But better late than never.

Judging from financial market reactions, the stimulus package is believed to have alleviated concerns about the government’s willingness and ability to take bold steps to stimulate economic growth. Stock market investors now seem more confident that China could turn its economy around and achieve stronger growth in the last quarter of this year and into 2025.

Both China and the world will need to wait and see if this optimism translates into increased consumer confidence, real investment by both private companies and state-owned firms, and a resurgence in foreign direct investment in the months and years ahead. The positive spillovers to the global economy would also be greater if driven by stronger Chinese economic fundamentals than just higher nominal prices.

Among developed economies, Australia and South Korea stand to benefit the most from an economic rebound in China, especially if it includes even a partial recovery in the real-estate sector, which would fuel demand for Australian iron ore and other raw materials. South Korea, home to key suppliers within China’s regional and global value chains, would likely experience higher demand for its industrial exports.

If Chinese households become more willing to spend, countries that produce luxury products or attract Chinese tourists, such as France and Italy, could benefit significantly in the coming months such as around the next Chinese New Year in late January 2025.

By contrast, the United States is expected to experience more limited gains this time, owing to the many trade restrictions and technology export bans that it has imposed on China in recent years.

Japan was a major beneficiary of China’s 2008 stimulus package, with many Japanese firms – like their South Korean counterparts – serving as key suppliers to Chinese companies. Japan is also a popular destination for Chinese tourists. While China’s stimulus announcement has elicited little visible excitement on the Tokyo stock market, media reports suggest that concerns over the economic policies of Japan’s new Prime Minister, Ishiba Shigeru, may have overshadowed any expected gains.

In the developing world, Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Malaysia as a part of Chinese firms’ supply chains, and major commodity producers like Chile and Argentina could benefit from an increase in Chinese demand for commodities and industrial inputs.

The stimulus package is a great first step in reviving Chinese growth. For China to unlock long-term growth potential, it must also implement more structural reforms. This will include further improvements in the business climate for all firms, especially non-state-owned firms and foreign invested firms. Such reforms would encourage entrepreneurs to invest and innovate more, and motivate households to spend more. A stronger Chinese growth will not only make its citizens better off, but also generate greater positive spillover to the rest of the world.

-END-

↙↙点击“阅读原文”，购买《寻找经济最优解》