魏尚进：国际投资者会对印度感到失望吗?

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■作者：魏尚进 复旦大学国际金融学院学术访问教授、哥伦比亚大学终身讲席教授、亚洲开发银行前首席经济学家

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标普全球去年年底发布的一份关于世界经济的报告，《中国放缓，印度增长》的标题反映了国际上一种日益普遍的情绪，也就是认为全球最大的两个发展中经济体相对实力正在发生逆转。印度股市近期的增长势如破竹，在印度国家证券交易所股票投资账户数在过去的三年半增长超过30%，从2020年的3000多万增加到如今的4000多万[1]。另外，国际媒体上关于跨国公司迁离中国进入印度的讨论也越来越多。

印度凭借每年7%到8%的GDP增长率，似乎在20年内可以稳超中国，成为全球最大的发展中经济体。如果印度真的实现超越，将是一个了不起的成就。虽然在20世纪80年代初，印度的人均收入和整体经济都领先于中国，但在过去40年里，由于中国的改革开放带来的高速增长，印度已经被甩在了后面（见图1）。不过，由于劳动力成本上升、劳动年龄人口减少、与美国地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及国内政策调整等综合因素，中国经济增长放缓，而印度已成为增长最快的大型经济体。

图1 印度与中国人均GDP比较（1980年~2025年）

在国际媒体对印度经济的描述是“到处莺歌燕舞”的时刻，值得反思一下，当前各界对印度经济的乐观情绪是否过头了？国际投资者会对印度经济在未来会感到失望吗？

可以肯定的是，印度的确有几个有利因素。首先是人口方面。印度刚刚超过中国成为人口最多的国家。根据2022年数据，印度有43.3%的人口在25岁以下，而中国只有28.5%。随着年轻人越来越多，印度原则上也应该有更多的劳动人口。由于其人均收入仅为中国的1/3左右，不到美国的1/10，印度有很大的快速追赶的增长空间。

第二个有利因素是地缘政治。随着美国对中国产品征收高额关税，以及美国和欧盟对中国电动汽车和其他产品征收额外关税的预期，许多以前将中国作为全球生产基地的跨国公司正在寻找替代国。从人口规模看，印度似乎天然是替代国。此外，印度人在许多主要国际组织中担任领导职务，数量上有明显优势，全球政治气候也对印度经贸发展有利。

第三个因素是国内政府对企业的支持。印度的莫迪政府宣布了许多旨在改善投资环境的政策。许多政府项目都有好听的话术，类似“印度制造”“自力更生的印度”“数字印度”，让商界领袖感觉悦耳动听。如果一家企业恰好处于政府推动的行业，它就可以从优惠政策中受益。

然而，如果说历史教会了我们什么，那就是投资者情绪可以在过度悲观与过度乐观之间摇摆。或许今天对印度的乐观情绪明天就被认为夸大了。这里有几个因素值得注意。

首先，印度的人口并不一定比中国有利太多。根据联合国人口统计，印度的生育率也有明显的下降趋势，或许很快就会越过低于人口替代率的门槛（见图2）。重要的是，由于印度的女性劳动力参与率比中国低得多（2023年印度为32.7%，而中国同年为60.5%），因此印度的实际劳动人口数量实际上比中国少（世界银行的世界发展指标，2022年）。

图2 印度与中国的总体生育率（1940年~2020年）

此外，由于印度劳动力的教育程度和技能水平较低，印度和中国在质量调整后的劳动力成本上的差距较小。根据联合国教科文组织统计研究所的数据，到2020年，97.6%的中国成年人（15岁及以上）识字，而印度2022年这一比例为76.3%。此外，由于中国拥有更好的道路、港口和其他基础设施，使得印度在生产商品并将其运往全球市场的总成本不一定比中国更低。

其次，尽管地缘政治对印度有利，但印度过度的保护主义政策很大程度上抵消了这一优势。印度的贸易壁垒和外国直接投资限制都比中国严重（见表1）。事实上，欧盟和日本都向世贸组织投诉印度对其产品不公平的贸易壁垒，并赢得了世贸组织的有利裁决。不幸的是，印度选择向世贸组织上诉机构提出上诉。由于美国使上诉机构无法运作，印度知道它的上诉意味着它不需要在短期内修改其壁垒[2]。另外，跨国公司难以在印度获得土地或调整劳动力，这一局面使得印度本身较低的工资水平没有形成吸引外国直接投资的强有力条件。因此，许多迁离中国的公司可能会选择越南和孟加拉国而不是印度。

第三，腐败是一个国家经商总成本的重要组成部分。根据总部位于欧洲、专门测量全球腐败情况的透明国际组织（Transparency International），印度的腐败情况一直比中国更严重。在英国政府网站上关于在印度做生意的指南中写道：“透明国际的全球腐败晴雨表亚洲部分显示，印度的贿赂率在亚洲最高（39%），而且（问卷结果表明）不得不利用个人关系获得公共服务的人数最多（46%）。尽管举报腐败是遏制腐败蔓延的关键，但大多数受访者（63%）担心举报腐败会遭到报复。而且很多人（89%）认为政府腐败是一个大问题[3]。”许多搬到印度的国际公司发现，做生意的隐性成本可能会大大超过公司必须支付的显性或官方税收。

图3 主要国家清廉指数（2005年~2023年）

当然，如果印度选择在减少腐败、建设更好的基础设施、提高教育水平、提高妇女的社会地位和劳动力参与率等方面进行持续的改革，它可以克服上面提到的许多挑战。不过，除非印度在这些方面取得足够的进展，我们不能认为这些变化会自动发生。我们还不能排除有一天国际投资者会像过去一样对印度经济大失所望。

Shang-Jin Wei

Editor-in-chief of Fudan Financial Review

Professor of Finance and Economics of Columbia University

Former Chief Economist of Asian Development Bank

“China slows, India grows,” the title of an S&P report on the world economy released late last year, neatly summarizes an increasingly common international sentiment about the shifting relative strengths of the world's largest two developing economies. The Indian stock market is booming, and the number of investment accounts that trade stocks on India's National Stock Exchange has grown by over 30% over the last 3 and half years from 30 million in 2020 to 40 million now[1].There is also increasing talks of global multinational firms moving out of China and into India. 

With 7 or 8% annual GDP growth, India seems to be on an unstoppable course to overtake China to be the biggest developing economy in two decades. This would be a remarkable feat if achieved. While both its per capita income and overall economy were ahead of China in the early 1980s, it has been left behind by China in the last 40 years due to China’s break-neck growth (see the graph below). But as the Chinese growth decelerated due to a combination of rising labor cost, shrinking working age cohort, and rising geopolitical tension with the United States, and domestic policy adjustments, India has become the fastest growing large economy.

Is the current euphoria about the Indian economy overblown? Could international investors be disappointed by the Indian economy?

To be sure, India enjoys several favorable factors. The first is demographics. India has just surpassed China to become the most populous country. 43.3% of India's population are under the age of 25 compared to only 28.5% for China (2022). With more young people overall in India, there should be more working people in the country as well. With a per capita income that is only about 1/3 of the Chinese level, and less than 1/10 of the US level, India has a lot of room for a rapid catch-up growth.

The second favorable factor is geopolitics. With high US tariffs on Chinese products, and a prospect of additional tariffs by the United States and European Union on Chinese electric vehicles and other products, many multinational firms previously use China as their production base for the world market are looking for an alternative location, and India looks like a natural substitute given its population scale. In addition, with many more Indians occupying leadership positions in major international organizations, global political climate is also more favorable to India's trade and international commercial relations.

The third factor is domestic government support for business. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has announced many policies that aim at improving the investment climate. Many government programs have nice sound bites, "Make in India," "Self-Reliant India," and “Digital India” that are music to the ears of business leaders. If a firm happens to be in a sector that the government promotes, it can benefit from favorable policies.

However, if history has taught us anything, it is that investor sentiment can swing between excessive pessimism and excessive optimism. The Indian euphoria could also be overblown.  Several factors deserve attention.

First, the Indian demographics may not be substantially more favorable than the Chinese as it first appears. According to the United National population statistics, the Indian fertility rate also experience a clear downward trend, and can soon cross the threshold of being below the replacement rate (see the graph below). Importantly, because India has a much lower female labor force participation rate (FLFP) than China (32.7% versus 60.5% in 2023), the number of working people is actually lower (29.1% lower, World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2022) in India than China.

Furthermore, because the education and skill level are lower in the Indian work force, the gap in quality adjusted labor cost between India and China is smaller. According to UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 97.6% of all Chinese adults (age 15 and above) are literate (2020) compared to 76.3% in India (2022). Furthermore, as China has better roads, ports, and other infrastructure, the overall cost of producing a good and shipping it to the world market is not necessarily lower in India. 

Second, while geopolitics is kinder to India, India's greater degree of protectionism offsets the advantage. Barriers to both trade and FDI are more severe in India than in China (see the table below). Indeed, both the European Union and Japan have complained to the World Trade Organization about Indian's unfair trade barriers on their product and won a favorable WTO ruling. Unfortunately, Indian has chosen to appeal the decision to the WTO Appellate Body. Because the Appellate Body has been rendered not functioning by the United States, India knows its action means that it does not need to modify its barriers any time soon. The difficulty for international firms to acquire land or adjust their work force have also made India a less attractive FDI destination than its low wage would have suggested on its own. As a result, many firms that leave China may choose Vietnam and Bangladesh over India.

Third, corruption, an important part of overall cost of doing business in a country, is consistently more severe in India than in China, according to Transparency International, a Europe based NGO dedicated in measuring and fighting corruption worldwide. On the guide on doing business in India, the British government website states: “TI's Global Corruption Barometer (GCB) Asia found that India has the highest bribery rate in Asia (39%) and the highest number of people who had to use personal connections to access public services (46%). Although reporting corruption is essential to curb the spread, a majority of those surveyed (63%) feared retaliation if they reported corruption. A large number of people (89%) felt government corruption was a big problem.”[3]Many international firms that have moved to India discover that the hidden cost of doing business can overwhelm the explicit or official taxes that firms have to pay. 

Of course, India can overcome many of these challenges if it chooses to wage consistent reforms at reducing corruption, building better infrastructure, raising education level, and improving women's social status and labor force participation rate. Unless and until India makes enough progress on these fronts, one cannot assume that these will happen automatically. Thus, we can yet rule out the possibility that international investors will be disappointed by the Indian economy.

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