Why have markets grown more captivated by data releases?
为什么市场愈发对数据披露感兴趣？
英文部分选自经济学人20241012期财经板块
Finance & economics | Buttonwood
Why have markets grown more captivated by data releases?
Especially when the quality of statistics is deteriorating
Eight-thirty in the morning on the first Friday of every month is a special time for bond traders: it’s when America’s Bureau of Labour Statistics usually releases its monthly jobs data. Despite the vast sums that some hedge funds spend on alternative data, landmark releases like the employment report or the consumer-price index (cpi) can still convulse markets. When the September payrolls numbers, released on October 4th, blew past expectations, bond yields jumped by eight basis points (0.08 percentage points). Stocks spiked, too, though the move was short-lived.对债券交易员来说，每月第一个周五的早上八点半是一个特殊时刻：美国劳工统计局通常在此时发布月度就业数据。尽管一些对冲基金在其他数据上投入了大量资金，但就业报告或消费者价格指数（CPI）等标志性数据一经发布，仍然可能震荡市场。10月4日发布的9月就业数字远超预期，债券收益率跃升8个基点（0.08百分点）。股票也因此飙升，尽管只是昙花一现。News has always driven markets, but curiously the importance of big data releases has grown substantially in recent years. Analysis byThe Economist finds that, over the past year, bond-market moves in America have been twice as large on days with major data releases or Federal Reserve decisions as on other days, while equity-market moves have been two-thirds larger (see chart). In both cases, these were substantially above the historical norm.市场走势往往受新闻消息牵动，但有趣的是，近几年，重要数据发布所产生的影响愈发显著。本刊分析发现，过去的一年中，关键数据发布或美联储决定公布时，美国债券市场波动幅度达到平时的两倍，而股市的波动幅度则上升了三分之二（见图表）。无论是债券市场还是股市，波动都远高于历史常态。Why, then, have markets decided to take hard facts much more seriously? Part of the story is probably that the global economy has been so bizarre in recent years: a pandemic, vast fiscal stimulus, a war-fuelled spike in commodity prices. When events are so far outside the historical norm, the impulse to latch on to the certainty of new data is understandable.那么，为什么市场现在开始对客观事实做出更大反应呢？部分原因在于近几年全球经济风谲云诡：突如其来的疫情、大规模财政刺激、战争导致的大宗商品价格飙升。当事件如此偏离历史常态，也难怪市场不禁迷恋上新鲜出炉的数据，急于从中抓住丝丝缕缕的确定性。Another spur has been higher inflation. Inflation is easy to ignore when it is bouncing around 2% or so, as it was for most of the 2010s. Doing so is harder when it has only just come down from a 40-year high. That puts more attention on data directly related to inflation, such ascpi releases or wage numbers, but also changes how all other data is interpreted. Over the past few years markets have see-sawed between seeing strong jobs and growth numbers as reassuring indicators of a strengthening economy, or as troubling signs of an overheating and inflation-prone one.另一个刺激因素是剧烈的通货膨胀。当通胀保持在2%上下时，其影响很容易被忽视，就像本世纪第二个十年里大部分时间一样。但如果通胀刚从40年来的高点回落，情况就不一样了：市场更加关注与通胀直接相关的数据，例如CPI 或工资数据，人们解读其他数据的方式也会发生变化。强劲的就业和增长究竟是经济正在变好的好兆头，亦或是经济过热、容易出现通胀问题的警告，在过去几年里，市场举棋不定。Another, more recent shift has been growing recession angst. Over the summer America triggered two well-known indicators of recession: the Sahm Rule (a sharp rise in unemployment) and the un-inversion of the yield curve (when the interest rate on short-term bonds falls back below the rate on long-term bonds). The differences between decent and underwhelming economic news, often fine, start to matter a lot more to those looking closely for early signs of a crash. Those fears have abated slightly as some firmer growth numbers in America have come through more recently.最近出现的另一个变化是对衰退的担忧日益加剧。今年夏天，美国触发了两个著名的经济衰退指标：萨姆法则（失业率大幅上升）和收益率曲线倒挂的解除（短期债券利率回落至长期债券利率之下）。有关经济消息一出，这些消息到底算尚可还是不咋地，搁平时可能无所谓，但如今对于那些密切关注崩盘早期迹象的人来说，那些原本看似细微的差异变得愈加重要。随着近期美国出现一些较为强劲的增长数据，这种恐慌情绪有所缓解。注释：
1.Sahm rule: The Sahm rule states: When the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage point or more above its low over the prior twelve months, we are in the early months of recession. 该法则指出，当美国失业率的三个月移动平均值比12个月低点高出至少半个百分点时，经济衰退的初始阶段就开始了。
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahm_rule
2.Abate: vi. to decrease in force or intensity
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/abate
《野村答一财：“萨姆规则”未必奏效， 12个月内美国衰退概率25%》
Source:https://finance.sina.cn/usstock/mggd/2024-08-09/detail-inchymyy3025905.d.htmlOne irony is that markets have decided to lean harder on economic data just as the quality of statistics has started to fall. Response rates to many government surveys have been plummeting since the pandemic. In America, high and disputed rates of illegal migration have messed with the quality of some jobs numbers. Britain’s data problems may be even worse. Some of its central bankers, in more candid moments, admit to largely ignoring the unemployment data; it’s now simply too choppy to be helpful.讽刺的是，就在统计数据质量开始下降之际，市场却变得更加依赖经济数据。自疫情爆发以来，许多政府调查的回复率直线下降。在美国，非法移民比例很高，且具体数字存在争议，使得一些就业数据的准确性受到影响。英国的数据问题甚至可能更严重。英国央行官员们在个别场合层承认，他们基本上已经无视失业数据，因为这些数据现在波动过大，几乎没有参考价值。注释：
1.Plummet：vi. to drop sharply and abruptly
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/plummet
2.Candid: adj. marked by honest sincere expression 率直的；坦白的
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/candidIf Buttonwood had to guess, markets’ current obsession with totemic data releases probably won’t last. The most plausible route for the American economy over the next year or so is a gradual normalisation to a dull, slow but still-growing baseline. That’s the sort of environment in which fine gradations in economic news tend to matter less.如果一定要猜测，市场当前对标志性数据发布的痴迷可能不会持续太久。未来一年左右，美国经济最有可能的路径是逐渐回归到一个平淡、缓慢但仍在增长的基准。这种环境下，经济新闻的细微差别往往变得不那么重要。Plausible:superficially fair, reasonable, or valuable but often deceptively soSource: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/plausible
There are other reasons to expect interest in big data drops to fade. Third-party data is often already nearly as good as the official stuff, and released much faster. There are a few exceptions—the jobs numbers fromadp, a payrolls manager, have tended to be a pretty poor guide to the real thing—but the quality of alternative data is generally getting better. For the moment, though, traders are stuck waiting at their Bloomberg terminals for the 8.30am news. Late risers in America can at least take solace that they don’t live in Britain, which puts out economic data at 7am. 还有一些因素可能会使人们对关键数据发布的关注逐渐消退。第三方数据往往已经接近官方数据的质量，且发布速度更快。例外自然是有的，例如薪资管理公司ADP的就业数据通常与官方数据相差较大，但整体来看，替代数据的质量正在不断提高。不过，目前交易员们仍然只能守在彭博终端机前，等待早上8:30的新闻。美国的“晚起族”至少庆幸自己不住在英国，因为那里的经济数据早上7点就发布了。注释：
Solace: to give comfort to in grief or misfortune : console
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/solaceMartina，想做REST的I人
Ithil，Ithil, or be more cruel, love, and so be kind.
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