本周封面故事 | 中东火药桶:以色列多线冲突内幕

财富   2024-10-08 09:20   美国  

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写在前面

本文描述了以色列与黎巴嫩真主党、哈马斯以及伊朗之间持续升级的冲突。自2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以色列一周年以来,中东局势急剧恶化。以色列暗杀真主党领导人纳斯鲁拉,进军黎巴嫩,伊朗则发射导弹回击。文章分析了这场复杂冲突的多方面影响,并探讨了通过外交和威慑来寻求和平的可能性。同时,文章强调了解决巴勒斯坦问题对实现地区稳定的重要性。


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Cover Story

How we chose this week’s image

We had been planning for some time to produce a cover story marking the first anniversary of Hamas’s slaughter of Israelis on October 7th 2023. Our correspondents in the Middle East and our defence experts in London were preparing a package of articles analysing the terrible events that followed, asking how a year of bloodletting had affected Gaza, Israel and the wider region. What we did not expect was such a tornado of news just before our deadline.

Israel assassinated Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbullah, the militia-cum-political-movement that dominates Lebanon and had been firing rockets into northern Israel for the past year. Israel’s army advanced into Lebanon to destroy Hizbullah’s outposts near the border. Iran, which sponsors Hizbullah, fired 180 missiles directly at Israel in response. Everyone expects Israel to retaliate against Iran; many fear that the Middle East is sliding towards an all-out war.

How to illustrate such distressing complexity in a single cover image? One idea was to show a hawk with an olive twig in its beak. Since the hawk is so much bigger, the overriding impression is that the fighting will get worse. But the olive twig holds out hope that with a mixture of diplomacy and deterrence, as we describe in our cover leader, the region could find a path to peace. An alternative was to show an olive branch charred by fire, suggesting that the path will be perilous.


A more ominous idea was a bundle of explosives with connected fuses. The artist has labelled those in the foreground “Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Iran”, to signify how Iran’s theocratic regime makes mischief via its proxy militias in these countries. However, to represent the true tangle of burning fuses in the region, we would have had to add more names, beginning with Israel, Gaza and the West Bank. That would quickly have become too much to take in at a glance, and would have required an uncomfortably small typeface. So we tried a less direct approach: an array of matches, each one just close enough to the next to risk igniting it.


Our cover leader argues that the use of force will not, on its own, make Israel secure. Its army has shown tactical brilliance in its decapitation of Hizbullah, but its politicians need to show restraint, so as not to get sucked into a quagmire in Lebanon. America and Israel also need to offer Iran the right combination of sticks (to deter its regional troublemaking) and carrots (to encourage reformers in Iran to choose a less destructive path). Most of all, Israel needs to treat the Palestinians better. Unless there is a just solution to their plight, crushing Hamas will simply breed another generation of militants. We tried to convey the risks of relying only on force with a whirlpool design: a parade of tanks and warplanes spiralling towards calamity. However, there was no hope at all in this image. We tried a half-pen, half-bullet image to blend the ideas of diplomacy and deterrence.

None of these images seemed vivid enough to capture the shocking drama of the past week or year. So we tried some straightforward news photographs. On the left, a plume of black smoke rising from Beirut. On the right, an image of pure grief. Even images like these, tragically, have become all too familiar.


We tried a different approach, showing the eyes of four leaders who have shaped recent events: Israel’s prime minister, Iran’s supreme leader, Hamas’s commander and the late Mr Nasrallah. Another idea was to show three dramatic snapshots of the past year: Hamas’s attack on Israel, Israel’s attack on Gaza and its new incursion into Lebanon.

For a newsier take, we experimented with photographs of Iranian missiles lighting up the night sky over Israel. Some of us thought this was a suitably arresting image. Others thought it focused too much on a single (albeit dramatic) day, whereas our cover story spans a much broader time frame. So in the end we settled on a map of the Middle East, with cracks spreading outwards from Israel and Palestine. With a sharper headline and slight change of colouring, we had a grimly memorable cover.

一天一篇经济学人
现在很多人都不知道自己热爱什么,追求什么,只是找到一个标签后就认为找到了人生的意义。我们是谁不重要,我们想成为谁很重要!当你什么都没有的时候,你想尽可能多的包装自己;当你内心充盈足够自信的时候,你只想做你自己,而且是更好的自己。
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