背景介绍：
全球飞机制造业由空中客车（空客）与波音公司双头垄断，两大巨头每年在世界知名航展上激烈竞争。今年7月，范堡罗航展上双方竞争氛围平和，均宣布获得小规模订单。然而，波音公司受737 MAX安全事件影响，生产放缓；空客亦面临供应链挑战，交付计划推迟。在此背景下，全球航空需求急剧攀升，未来20年将需大量新飞机。中国商飞C919的崛起对双头垄断格局构成挑战，但国际市场的接受度仍面临考验。
Can China
smash the Airbus-Boeing duopoly?
中国能打破空客-波音双头垄断吗?
It hopes to succeed where others have failed
它希望在别人失败的地方取得成功
Each year Airbus and Boeing, the two halves of the global aircraft duopoly, face off at the world’s most prestigious airshow, which alternates between Paris and Farnborough, in the countryside close to London.
每年，全球飞机制造业的双头垄断巨头——空中客车（空客）与波音公司，均会在世界最享盛名的航展舞台上展开激烈对决。这些航展在巴黎与伦敦近郊的范堡罗轮流举办。
This year’s event in Farnborough, which opened on July 22nd, was a more subdued clash than usual. Both firms announced some orders from airlines, but these were mostly small.
今年的盛会于7月22日在范堡罗盛大拉开帷幕，与前几届相比，此次的竞争氛围显得更为平和。两家公司均宣布斩获了来自航空公司的若干订单，但这些订单普遍规模较小。
Boeing is still reeling from the consequences of a panel blowing off a 737 MAX, its short-haul aircraft, in January. That model, which first flew in 2016, has been bedevilled with safety issues.
今年1月，波音公司的一架短途飞机737 MAX因面板脱落事件而紧急停飞，至今该公司仍未完全摆脱这一事故所带来的负面影响。该机型自2016年首飞以来，一直饱受安全问题的困扰。
The company has had to slow down production as regulators have investigated its safety procedures, enraging airlines whose deliveries have been delayed. Airbus, which had more planes on display at Farnborough than its chastened rival, has had troubles of its own.
由于监管机构对其安全程序展开了深入调查，波音公司不得不减缓生产节奏，这一举措令众多因交付延期而焦急的航空公司倍感不满。与此同时，空客公司在范堡罗航展上展出的飞机数量超过了其竞争对手，但空客亦面临着自身的挑战。
Snags in its supply chain have forced it to delay plans to ramp up deliveries of its short-haul jets. At current production rates it will take Airbus nearly 12 years to produce the 8,600 planes it has on its order books, and a similar time for Boeing to meet its 6,150 unfilled orders.
供应链上的重重阻碍迫使该公司推迟了增加短程飞机交付量的原定计划。按照当前的生产速率，空客需耗时近12年方能完成8600架飞机订单的生产，而波音公司亦需相仿的时间来满足其6150架未交货订单的需求。
The backdrop is one of soaring demand. Boeing reckons that over the next 20 years the global fleet of passenger planes will need to double to meet the world’s growing appetite for flying, requiring 44,000 new aircraft. That is roughly twice as many planes as the duopoly managed to deliver in the past 20 years.
这一背景之下，全球航空需求正急剧攀升。波音公司预测，在未来20年内，全球客机数量需翻一番，以满足全球日益增长的飞行需求，这将需要44,000架新飞机。这一数字约为过去20年间双头垄断企业所交付飞机数量的两倍。
Could this open the door to aviation’s twosome becoming a threesome? Rob Morris of Cirium, a consultancy, thinks “it is more a case of when, rather than if”. Yet the barriers to becoming a maker of large passenger planes remain formidable.
这是否预示着航空业将从双雄争霸转变为三足鼎立的格局？咨询公司 Cirium 的罗布·莫里斯认为，“这更多是一个时间早晚的问题，而非会不会发生的问题。”然而，成为大型客机制造商的门槛依然高不可攀。
It would cost Boeing and Airbus perhaps $20bn-30bn to develop a new plane. The expense would be even greater for any newcomer. They would need a decade or more to prepare designs, set up factories, establish a supply chain and obtain the blessing of regulators before any revenue rolled in.
波音与空客开发一款新飞机可能需要耗资200亿至300亿美元。对于新入行者而言，所需费用更是高昂。他们需花费10年甚至更长的时间来设计产品、建造工厂、构建供应链，并获得监管机构的批准，方能获得收入。
What they produce would need to match or beat the price and performance of the duopoly’s competing planes. They would then have to convince airlines, which benefit from lower costs when running a single-make fleet, to switch. And they would need to build the vast network of service technicians any customer would require before signing a cheque.
他们所生产的飞机必须在价格与性能上追平或超越双头垄断竞争对手的产品。随后，他们还需说服航空公司，使其相信从单一制造商机队的低成本运营中能够获益。此外，他们还必须建立一个庞大的服务技术人员网络，这是任何客户在支付款项之前都会考虑的重要因素。
China’s determination to become an aerospace superpower—and its willingness to throw fistfuls of yuan at the effort—presents the biggest threat to the duopoly.
中国成为航空超级大国的坚定决心，以及为此不惜投入巨额人民币的意愿，对现有的双头垄断格局构成了最大的挑战。
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies, an American think-tank, reckons that by 2020 China’s government had handed up to around $70bn in subsidies to COMAC, the country’s state-owned aerospace champion, to develop the C919, a narrowbody rival to the 737 MAX and A320 family.
美国智库战略与国际研究中心估计，至2020年，中国已向中国国有航空巨头中国商用飞机有限责任公司（中国商飞）提供了约700亿美元的补贴，用于开发C919窄体飞机，该机型可与737 MAX和A320系列展开竞争。
Conceived in 2006, it made its long delayed first flight in 2017. COMAC has now delivered six of the planes to customers, and has orders for over 1,000 more.
C919于2006年提出构想，并于2017年完成了期待已久的首次飞行。截至目前，中国商飞已向客户交付了六架飞机，并收获了超过1000架的订单。
The C919’s range and capacity, however, fall short of the competition. Christian Scherer, boss of Airbus’s commercial-aircraft business, regards COMAC as a serious competitor, but points out that the C919 offers no new technology or features. Attracting international buyers will be tough.
然而，C919在航程与运力方面均不及竞争对手。空客商用飞机业务负责人 Christian Scherer 将中国商飞视为一位重要的竞争对手，但他同时指出，C919并未带来任何新的技术或特色。吸引国际买家将是一项艰巨的任务。
Outside its home market, only a startup in Brunei with Chinese backers has ordered the C919. Western aviation regulators will be wary of approving a new jet from a new manufacturer, and Western politicians could grumble about domestic airlines purchasing Chinese planes.
在中国本土市场之外，仅有文莱一家由中国支持的初创公司订购了C919。西方航空监管机构在批准来自新制造商的新飞机时将持谨慎态度，而西方政界人士可能会对国内航空公司购买中国飞机表示不满。
重难点词汇：
duopoly [d(j)uˈɑpəli] n. 双头垄断
enrage [ɪnˈreɪdʒ] v. 激怒；触怒；惹恼
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