背景介绍：
随着美国经济强劲增长和投资者预期美联储维持高利率，美元持续走强，对全球金融市场及各国经济产生深远影响。美元升值不仅加剧了美国贸易逆差问题，还引发了输入型通胀，对依赖出口的国家和借美元企业构成挑战。多国政府尝试通过抛售美元或国际合作来遏制美元升值，但面临全球经济利益分歧和利率差异的复杂局面，这些措施效果有限，全球金融稳定面临考验。
Battles to
come
It has risen by 4% this year, measured against a trade-weighted basket of currencies; the fundamentals point to further appreciation. With a presidential electionlooming, and both Democrats and Republicans determined to promote American manufacturing, the world is on the verge of a new period of strong-dollar geopolitics.
与一篮子贸易加权货币相比，今年美元升值了4%；基本面表明美元会进一步升值。随着总统大选临近，加上民主党和共和党都决心振兴美国制造业，世界即将进入一个强势美元地缘政治的新时期。
This situation is made still more difficult by the fact that the currency’s strength reflects weakness elsewhere. By the end of 2023, America’s economy was 8% larger than at the end of 2019. Those of Britain, France, Germany and Japan each grew by less than 2% during the same period.
美元的强势反映出其他地区的疲软，这让形势变得更加严峻。2023年底，美国经济相比2019年底增长了8%。同期，英国、法国、德国和日本的经济增长都不到2%。
The yen is at a 34-year low against the dollar. The euro has dropped to $1.07 from $1.10 at the start of the year. Some traders are now betting that the pair will reach parity by the beginning of next year.
日元兑美元汇率跌至34年来的最低点。欧元兑美元已从年初的1.10跌至1.07。一些交易员现在押注欧元和美元将在明年年初持平。
Should Donald Trump win in November, the scene is therefore set for a fight. A strong dollar tends to raise the price of American exports and lower the price of imports, widening the country’s persistent trade deficit—a bugbear of Mr Trump’s for many decades.
如果特朗普在11月赢得大选，那么一场恶战一触即发。强势的美元往往会让美国出口商品的价格上涨，压低进口商品的价格，从而扩大美国长久的贸易逆差——几十年来这一直是特朗普的心头大患。
Robert Lighthizer, the architect of tariffs against China during Mr Trump’s time in the White House, wants to weaken the dollar, according to Politico, a news website. President Joe Biden has made no public pronouncements on the currency, but a strong dollar complicates his manufacturing agenda, too.
据新闻网站 Politico 报道，特朗普执掌白宫期间主导对中国征收关税的罗伯特·莱特希泽想要让美元走弱。美国总统拜登没有就汇率问题发表公开声明，但强势美元也让他的制造业议程更加复杂艰难。
Elsewhere, a mighty greenback is good for exporters that have costs denominated in other currencies. But high American interest rates and a strong dollar generate imported inflation, which is now exacerbated by relatively high oil prices.
在其他地方，强势美元对以其他货币计算成本的出口商来说是件好事。但美国的高利率和强势美元产生了输入型通胀，而目前相对较高的油价又加剧了这一问题。
In addition, companies that have borrowed in dollars face steeper repayments. On April 18th Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, warned about the impact of these developments on global financial stability.
此外，借入美元的公司面临更大的偿债压力。4月18日，国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃警告说这种形势会影响全球金融稳定。
Many countries have ample foreign-exchange reserves that they could sell to bolster their currencies: Japan has $1.3trn, India $643bn and South Korea $419bn. Yet any relief would be temporary.
许多国家拥有充足的外汇储备，可以通过抛售美元来支撑本国货币：日本有1.3万亿美元，印度有6430亿美元，韩国有4190亿美元。不过，任何缓解都是暂时的。
Although sales slowed the strengthening of the dollar in 2022, when the Fed began raising interest rates, they did not stop it. Central banks and finance ministries are loth to waste their holdings on fruitless fights.
在2022年美联储开始加息时，抛售尽管减缓了美元走强，但没能阻止这一趋势。各国央行和财政部都不愿在毫无结果的战斗中浪费家当。
Another option is international co-ordination to halt the greenback’s climb. The beginnings of this were on display on April 16th, when the finance ministers of America, Japan and South Korea issued a joint statement expressing concern about the slump of the yen and won.
另一个选择是通过国际合作阻止美元的攀升。4月16日，美国、日本和韩国的财政部长发表了一份联合声明，表达了对日元和韩元贬值的担忧。
This may be the precursor to more intervention, in the form of joint sales of foreign-exchange reserves, to prevent the two Asian currencies from weakening further.
这可能是通过联合出售外汇储备进行更多干预的预兆，以防止这两种亚洲货币进一步贬值。
But as much as these countries may want to be on the same page, economics is unavoidably pulling them apart. After all, yen and won weakness is driven by the gap in interest rates between America and other countries.
不过，尽管这些国家可能希望彼此协调一致，但经济运作难免会让它们产生分歧。毕竟，日元和韩元的疲软是由美国和其他国家之间的利率差推动的。
South Korea’s two-year government bonds offer a return of around 3.5%, and Japan’s just 0.3%, while American Treasuries maturing at the same time offer 5%. If interest rates stay markedly higher in America, investors seeking returns face a straightforward choice—and their decisions will buttress the dollar.
韩国两年期国债的回报率约为3.5%，日本仅为0.3%，而同样期限的美国国债的回报率为5%。如果美国的利率继续明显高于其他国家，寻求回报的投资者将面临一个简单直接的选择——而他们的决定将支撑美元。
重难点词汇：
formidable [ˈfɔːrmɪdəbl] adj. 令人敬畏的；强大的
parity [ˈpærəti] n. 平等；同等；相等
bugbear [ˈbəɡˌbɛr] n. 使人过分害怕的东西；臆造的怪物
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