背景介绍：
印度，作为全球经济增长最快的大国之一，正以年均6%至7%的速度崛起，逐步巩固其全球第五大经济体的地位，并有望在未来十年内跻身世界前三。在莫迪的领导下，印度正尝试在全球化逆流中探索独特的经济增长模式，通过庞大的基础设施建设计划、蓬勃的服务出口业以及创新的数字化福利体系，推动国家向繁荣迈进。面对诸多挑战，印度能否为世界经济版图带来新的变化？
How strong is India’s economy?
印度的经济实力有多强？
It isn’t the next China, but it could still transform itself and the world
它不是下一个中国，但仍可能改变自己和全世界
In six weeks’ time Narendra Modi is expected to win a third term as India’s prime minister, cementing his status as its most important leader since Nehru.
六月初，莫迪有望赢得第三个印度总理任期，巩固其作为尼赫鲁以来最重要的印度领导人的地位。
The electoral success of this tea-seller’s son reflects his political skill, the potency of his Hindu-nationalist ideology and his erosion of democratic institutions. But it also reflects a sense among ordinary voters and elites that he is bringing India prosperity and power.
这位茶商之子的选举胜利反映出他的政治手腕、他的印度教民族主义意识形态的强大影响力，以及他对民主制度的侵蚀。但这也反映了在普通选民和精英阶层中存在的一种看法——他正在为印度带来繁荣富强。
Mr Modi’s India is an experiment in how to get richer amid deglobalisation and under strongman leadership. Whether it can grow fast and avoid unrest over the next 10-20 years will shape the fate of 1.4bn people and the world economy.
莫迪治下的印度正在进行一场实验，探索如何让印度在去全球化和强人领导下变得更加富裕。印度能否在未来10到20年内实现经济的快速增长并避免动荡，将决定14亿印度人民和全球经济的命运。
As our special report explains, Mr Modi’s formula is working—up to a point. But there are questions over whether India’s success can last and whether it depends on him remaining in power.
莫迪的手段在一定程度上卓有成效。但印度的成功能否持续，以及这是否有赖于莫迪继续掌权，这些都是问题。
India, the world’s fastest-growing big country, is expanding at an annual rate of 6-7%. New data show private-sector confidence at its highest since 2010. Already the fifth-largest economy, it may rank third by 2027, after America and China. India’s clout is showing up in new ways.
印度是全球经济增长最快的大国，年增长率为6%至7%。最新数据显示，私营部门的信心达到了2010年以来的最高点。印度已经成为全球第五大经济体，到2027年可能成为美国和中国之后的第三大经济体。印度的影响力正在新的方面显现。
American firms have 1.5m staff in India, more than in any other foreign country. Its stockmarket is the world’s fourth-most-valuable, while the aviation market ranks third. India’s purchases of Russian oil move global prices.
美国公司在印度雇有150万名员工，比在其他任何一个国家都要多。印度股票市场的规模位居世界第四，航空市场位居世界第三。印度对俄罗斯石油的购买影响着全球油价。
Rising wealth means more geopolitical heft. After the Houthis disrupted the Suez canal, India deployed ten warships in the Middle East. Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump have courted it without disputing that it will remain an independent actor.
不断增长的财富意味着更大的地缘影响力。胡塞武装袭扰苏伊士运河后，印度在中东部署了十艘军舰。拜登和特朗普都曾向印度示好，而没有质疑它是否将继续保持独立性。
If you are looking for “the next China”—a manufacturing-led miracle—it isn’t India. The country is developing at a time of stagnating goods trade and factory automation. It therefore needs to pioneer a new model for growth.
如果你认为印度会是“下一个中国”——一个由制造业主导的奇迹那就错了。印度的发展恰逢商品贸易停滞和工厂自动化，因此它需要开创一种新的经济增长模式。
One pillar of this is familiar: a massive programme of infrastructure that knits together a vast single market. India has 149 airports, double the number a decade ago, and is adding 10,000km of roads and 15GW of solar-energy capacity a year.
这种模式的一个重要支柱并不让人陌生：一个连接起巨大单一市场的庞大基建计划。印度有149个机场，数量比十年前翻了一番，每年还新增一万公里道路和15GW的太阳能发电能力。
Some of this infrastructure is intangible, including digital payments, modern capital markets and banks, and a unified digital tax system. All this allows firms to exploit national economies of scale.
其中还有一些无形的基础设施，比如数字支付、现代资本市场和银行，以及统一的数字税收系统等。所有这些都让企业能够利用国家规模经济。
A second, more novel pillar is services exports, which have reached 10% of GDP. Global trade in services is still growing and Indian IT firms have marketed “global capability centres”—hubs that sell multinationals R&D and services such as law and accounting.
第二个支柱较为新颖，那就是服务出口，它已经占到印度GDP的10%。全球服务贸易仍然保持增长，印度的T公司也顺势推出了很多“全球能力中心”——向跨国公司提供研发能力以及法律、会计等服务。
Yet despite its slick tech campuses, India is still a semirural society. That explains the economic model’s final pillar, a new type of welfare system in which hundreds of millions of poor Indians receive digital transfer-payments.
然而，尽管印度拥有光鲜的科技园区，它仍然是一个半农村社会。这就解释了这种经济增长模式为什么还有最后一个支柱——一种新型的福利体系。在这种体系下，数以亿计的印度穷人通过数字化收到了转移支付。
New data suggest the share of the population living on less than $2.15 a day in 2017 prices, a global measure of poverty, has fallen below 5% from 12% in 2011.
最新数据显示，印度在全球贫困线以下、也就是每天生活支出不足2.15美元(2017年价格)的人口比例已从2011年的12%下降至5%以下。
How much credit does Mr Modi deserve? His most successful policies draw on the liberal agenda that emerged in India in the 1990s and 2000s, but there is nothing wrong with that. He deserves credit for forcing through stalled reforms, personally overseeing key decisions and browbeating laggards and opponents in the bureaucracy.
莫迪应该得到多少赞誉？他最成功的那些政策借力上世纪90年代和本世纪头十年在印度出现的自由主义议程，但这并没什么问题。莫迪强力推动了停滞不前的改革、亲自监督关键决策、打击官僚机构中的懒政者和反对者等，这些都值得赞扬。
Some say he has fostered crony capitalism. Yet although some big firms get favours, concentration in business is falling, corruption has waned and business boasts a rich diversity. A cross between a CEO and a populist, Mr Modi relishes PowerPoint presentations as much as rallies.
有人说他助长了裙带资本主义。不过，尽管一些大公司受到了偏袒，但行业集中度正在下降，腐败现象减少了，产业也呈现明显的多元化。莫迪集CEO和民粹主义者于一身，他喜欢举行集会，也喜欢PPT工作汇报。
If he wins five more years, India will continue to grow strongly. So will its middle class: 60m people earn over $10,000 a year; by 2027, 100m will, reckons Goldman Sachs, a bank that now has 20% of its staff in India.
如果他再干五年，印度经济会继续强劲增长。印度的中产阶级也会稳步扩大：目前印度有6000万人年收入超过一万美元，投行高盛估计，到2027年，这一群体将增加到一亿人。高盛自己就有20%的员工在印度。
The question for India and its heavyweight economy is not whether Mr Modi wins, but whether he will evolve. Aged 73, he may find his powers of management fade.
对于印度及其举足轻重的经济来说，问题不在于莫迪是否会胜选，而在于他是否会有所改变。现年73岁的他可能会发现自己的掌控力已不如从前。
To create a new reform agenda on a par with the one that emerged out of the 1990s, and to foster a thriving knowledge economy that rewards people for thinking for themselves, he will have to temper his autocratic impulses.
要制定出能媲美上世纪90年代的新改革议程，促进奖励人们独立思考的知识经济的蓬勃发展，他将必须抑制自己的独裁冲动。
To attract more local and foreign investment and to find a growth-minded successor, his party will need to curb its chauvinistic politics. If not, Mr Modi’s mission of national renewal will not live up to its promise.
同时为了吸引更多的国内外投资，并找到一个注重经济增长的继任者，他领导的印度人民党需要克制其政治上的沙文主义。否则，莫迪的民族复兴使命将无法兑现其承诺。
