背景介绍：
含羞草鸡尾酒，以其简单的香槟与橙汁配方，一直备受喜爱。然而，近年来橙汁市场的动荡正悄然改变这一局面。自2021年末，浓缩橙汁期货价格在纽约市场急剧上涨，引发广泛关注。全球主要橙子产区如佛罗里达州、巴西等地，遭受虫害、飓风、干旱及病害等多重打击，导致橙子产量大幅下降。加之巴西圣保罗等地干旱加剧及柑橘绿化病肆虐，橙汁市场供应愈发紧张。在此背景下，含羞草鸡尾酒中的橙汁成分或将成为奢侈之选，全球果汁市场亦面临严峻挑战。
Why orange juice has never been
more expensive
为什么橙汁价格贵的离谱
Pity those who rely on the breakfast staple
可怜那些早餐爱喝橙汁的人了
Mimosas have a simple recipe: one part champagne, one part orange juice. Soon, though, the tipple may be even less affordable—and not because sparkling wine is ever more expensive.
含羞草鸡尾酒的配方简洁明了：仅需一份香槟与一份橙汁调和而成。然而，不久的将来，这款佳酿或许将不再是轻易可享的奢侈，而这并非源于香槟价格的攀升。
Concentrate orange-juice futures in New York, which soft-drink producers use to hedge against price swings, have quadrupled since late 2021. They hit an intraday high of $5.80 a pound on September 9th, their fifth record in a week.
自2021年末以来，纽约市场上的浓缩橙汁期货价格已激增三倍有余。软饮料制造商们常借助浓缩橙汁期货来抵御价格波动。9月9日，其价格盘中一度触及每磅5.80美元的高位，这已是当周内第五次刷新纪录。
The problem is that the market for oranges to make concentrate is very concentrated. Growth of the fruit in Florida, once the world’s second-biggest producer, has wilted by 92% in the past 20 years after being hit by pests, hurricanes and rising costs.
问题在于橙汁市场的高度集中性。佛罗里达州，昔日世界第二大橙子产区，在过去的二十年里，受虫害、飓风及价格上涨的多重打击，橙子产量锐减了92%。
Other growers, such as Mexico and Spain, largely supply the fresh-fruit market. That leaves Brazil, which accounts for 70% of the world’s production and a similar share of exports. And now it, too, is in trouble.
墨西哥与西班牙等其他种植国则主要供应新鲜水果市场。至于巴西，作为全球70%橙子产量的掌控者，其出口份额亦相去不远，但如今亦面临困境。
At the start of the year the market already faced bitter prospects. After yet another cataclysmic harvest in Florida—the worst since before the second world war—global stocks looked bare.
今年初，市场已笼罩在一片阴霾之下。佛罗里达州再次遭遇了二战前以来最为严重的歉收，全球库存显得尤为紧俏。
Then, in May, growers from São Paulo, Brazil’s main orange-producing state, forecast that the year’s crop would fall by 24% compared with the year before, after an ultra-hot flowering season. Farmers also faced a resurgence in citrus greening, an untreatable bacterial disease that turns oranges sour before killing the tree.
随后，五月间，巴西主要橙子产区圣保罗的种植户预测，受异常炎热花期的影响，本年度产量将比去年下滑24%。此外，农民们还不得不应对柑橘绿化病的再度肆虐，这是一种无法治愈的细菌性病害，令橙子在成熟前酸化变质。
But now even that gloomy forecast looks optimistic, says Andrés Padilla of Rabobank, a Dutch lender. Brazil’s drought is getting worse—parts of São Paulo have seen no rain for four months. Greening is out of control: in swathes of the state two-thirds of trees are infected.
荷兰合作银行的安德里亚·帕迪拉指出，即便是当前的悲观预测，亦显得过于乐观。巴西的干旱日益加剧，圣保罗部分地区已逾四月未见雨滴。柑橘绿化问题失控：该州大片区域内，三分之二的果树均遭感染。
Bigger farmers can afford to protect groves by using nets or insecticides. For smaller ones the only fix is to root out potentially diseased trees. High prices mean many prefer to keep their groves in the ground, so infections persist.
规模较大的种植户或许能负担得起使用网帐或杀虫剂保护果树林的费用。但对于规模较小的种植户而言，唯一的解决办法便是砍伐可能染病的植株。高昂的价格导致许多人宁愿让林地荒废，从而导致病害持续蔓延。
In many fields damage has already been done, meaning this year’s harvest is doomed. The next few could be just as bad. New trees take four years to bear fruit; they too could be exposed to greening. Droughts could sap yields again.
众多田地已遭破坏，预示着今年的收成注定惨淡。而接下来的几季收成同样不容乐观。新树需四年方能挂果，且同样面临柑橘绿化病的威胁。干旱可能再次削弱产量。
Planting in other regions may help, but suitable areas lack water access and are too far away from juice plants, which means that progress is very slow. Some farmers may opt to plant less risky crops than oranges, such as sugar cane.
在其他地区种植虽或有助缓解，但适宜地区既缺水又远离果汁加工厂，进展极为缓慢。部分农民或许会转种风险较低的作物，如甘蔗。
Despite high prices, global demand for juice remains strong, because consumers are affluent enough to pay more. This may lift producers’ profits a little, but not by much, for they also face higher costs.
尽管价格高涨，全球对果汁的需求依旧强劲，因消费者财力充裕，足以支付更高价格。这或许能为生产商带来些许利润增长，但增幅有限，因为他们同样面临着成本上升的压力。
Shortages may start to occur soon, probably outside America and Europe, which will be prioritised by retailers as the largest orange-juice markets. Barring a miracle, things look rotten for seekers of Vitamin C.
短缺现象可能很快就会显现，且更可能发生在美欧以外的地区，而美欧正是零售商优先供应的两大橙汁市场。除非奇迹发生，否则对于渴望维生素C的消费者而言，前景堪忧。
苏格拉底有一句名言：我知我无知。说的是，当你认识到的东西越多就越发现自己无知。苏格拉底认为，人对于客观世界的认识是有限的，且不可能完全认识客观世界，并且不应对客观世界刨根究底。神对于世界的规划自有安排，若人一意孤行地探索世界和自然的奥秘，则最终将亵渎甚至触怒神明。正因为人对神所构建的世界不可能实现完全认知，因此那些宣称自己能够认识和改造世界的人，本身便是无知的代言。尽管苏格拉底的关于“ 我知我无知”的观念的解读，在现在看来有失客观科学。但至少苏格拉底告诫人们，人的认知是有限的，现有的知识甚至可能存在错误和疏漏。同样地，我们在求学之路上也要报以我知我不知的心态，才能走得更远。最后，祝愿莘莘学子都能终有所成！
