背景介绍：
贵州茅台，作为中国白酒界的龙头，其市值曾一度超越科技巨头腾讯，但近年来却经历了剧烈波动。反腐运动的推进使茅台酒作为贿赂媒介的形象受损，市值大幅下跌。然而，近期股价的持续下滑似乎与反腐无直接关联，反而引发了市场对其背后原因的广泛猜测。一方面，房地产市场的低迷影响了茅台的主要消费群体；另一方面，一种新兴的纸牌游戏“掼蛋”逐渐在商务晚宴中占据重要位置，可能正悄然改变着中国商务宴请的文化，进而影响茅台等传统酒品的消费需求。同时，茅台自身产量扩张与分销控制问题也加剧了市场对其未来发展的担忧。
Who shaved
$250bn from Kweichow Moutai’s market value?
谁削去了贵州茅台2500亿美元的市值？
Hint: it wasn’t one’s anti-corruption drive
提示：这不是反腐行动导致的
The role of Kweichow Moutai in Chinese society is complex. The state-owned company’s fiery, translucent baijiu is by far China’s favourite booze. Vintage cases fetch tens of thousands of dollars.
贵州茅台在中国社会中的角色颇为复杂。这家国有企业生产的烈性透明状白酒，至今仍是中国人最为钟爱的酒品。一箱陈年茅台酒的价格可高达数万美元。
In 2021 it was briefly worth a throat-scorching $500bn and in 2022 it eclipsed Tencent, a digital giant, to become for a time the most valuable Chinese listed company.
2021年，贵州茅台的市值一度飙升至惊人的5000亿美元；2022年，其市值甚至超越了数字巨头腾讯，成为中国市值最高的上市公司。
Today its market capitalisation is half that. Some of the decline has to do with one’s crackdown on graft, before which prized bottles of the sorghum-based firewater would often change hands in place of cash. When in 2020 state TV accused Moutai of benefiting from bribery, $25bn instantly evaporated from its market capitalisation.
然而，时至今日，其市值已缩水至当年的一半。市值下降的部分原因与反腐运动有关。在此之前，这种以高粱为原料的烈酒常被用作现金的替代品进行交易。2020年，当国家电视台指责茅台受益于贿赂行为时，其市值瞬间蒸发了250亿美元。
Yet the most recent slide in the company’s share price, which is down by 14% since early May, does not appear to be related to anti-corruption campaigns. Moutai has not been subject to a recent state media hit-piece or government investigation.
然而，该公司股价最近一次下跌（自5月初以来已下跌14%）似乎与反腐运动无关。茅台近期并未受到官方媒体的批评或政府的调查。
Its revenues grew by nearly a fifth in the first quarter, year on year, to 46bn yuan ($6bn). Net profit jumped by 16%, to 24bn yuan. Its margins remain as eye-watering as its booze. What is going on?
其第一季度收入同比增长近五分之一，达到460亿元人民币（约合60亿美元），净利润增长16%，达到240亿元人民币。其利润率仍然如同其酒水一样令人瞩目。那么，究竟发生了什么呢？
The mystery of Moutai has captivated equity analysts, businesspeople and baijiu aficionados alike. Two colourful theories are making the rounds.
茅台之谜吸引了众多股票分析师、商人和白酒爱好者的关注。目前有两种不同的理论正在流传。
One has to do with the woes of formerly prodigious Moutai buyers. Property tycoons, said to have been among the biggest, are in the midst of a particularly severe dry spell.
一种理论与曾经庞大的茅台买家群体所面临的困境有关。据说，最大的买家群体中包括房地产大亨，而他们目前正陷入特别严重的困境。
It may be no coincidence that bottle prices and house prices both peaked around the same time in early 2021, as Merchant Securities, a local broker, points out. Moutai’s flagship 106-proof firewater now goes for 2,200 yuan a bottle, from 2,700 yuan at the beginning of the year and 3,100 yuan three years ago.
正如当地一家经纪公司 Merchant Securities 所指出的那样，茅台酒价格和房价在2021年初几乎同时达到峰值，这可能并非巧合。茅台主打的53度（106-proof）飞天茅台现在的价格是每瓶2200元，而今年年初还是2700元，三年前更是高达3100元。
An even quirkier explanation concerns a card game. Over the past few years guandan (which translates as “egg tossing” or “bomb tossing”) has become a fixture at banquets across the country.
另一种更为古怪的解释则与一种纸牌游戏有关。在过去的几年里，“掼蛋”已成为全国各地宴会上的一个固定项目。
It is rumoured that even some of China’s most senior officials enjoy the game, in which two teams of two players attempt to empty their hands by playing high combinations of cards. Richard Liu, who founded JD.com, a large e-merchant, is a self-professed fan.
据传，甚至连国内一些最高级官员也喜欢玩这种游戏。在游戏中，两组玩家（每组两人）试图通过打出强力组合牌来清空手中的牌。大型电商企业京东的创始人刘强东就自称是掼蛋爱好者。
As a result, guandan skills have become indispensable for business dinners. Just as executives around the world have learned to play golf in order to entertain business partners, many Chinese businesspeople are practising the card game in order to make an impression at banquets.
因此，“掼蛋”技巧已成为商务晚宴中不可或缺的技能。正如世界各地的高管们为了招待商业伙伴而学习打高尔夫球一样，许多中国商人也在练习这种纸牌游戏，以便在宴会上给人留下深刻印象。
Bloggers in China have speculated that playing cards is replacing competitive drinking as the single most important banquet activity. They note that serious guandan players tend to stay sober. This might be keeping Moutai off more and more banquet bills.
中国一些博主猜测，打牌正在取代竞争性饮酒，成为宴会上最重要的活动。他们注意到，认真的“掼蛋”玩家往往保持清醒，这可能会让茅台越来越多地被排除在宴会之外。
There are more mundane explanations for Moutai’s declining market value. The firm is ramping up production at a time when consumer sentiment is weakening. It has poor control over its distribution.
对于茅台市值的不断下跌，还有更多世俗的解释。在消费者信心减弱的时期，该公司却正在加大产量，且对分销的控制力较弱。
But if one’s new economy features fewer property magnates and more young tech founders who view winning at guandan rather than getting sloshed as a prerequisite to signing deals, then this could really stick the knife into Moutai’s future growth.
然而，如果新经济中少了地产大亨，而多了年轻的科技创业者，他们把赢得“掼蛋”比赛而非喝得酩酊大醉作为签署交易的先决条件，那么这确实可能会阻碍茅台未来的发展。
重难点词汇：
translucent [trænzˈluːsnt] adj. 半透明的；透光的
eclipse [ɪˈklɪps] n. 日食；月食；减弱 v. 使黯然失色；掩盖；遮蔽
aficionado [əˌfɪʃəˈnɑdoʊ] n. 爱好者；狂热迷
prodigious [prəˈdɪdʒəs] adj. 巨大的；庞大的；惊人的；非凡的
mundane [mʌnˈdeɪn] adj. 世俗的；平凡的；乏味的
magnate [ˈmæɡˌneɪt] n. 巨头；大亨；权贵；要人
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