Trump vow on new trade war sends shockwaves through supply chain, importers scramble to move up orders
特朗普对新贸易战的誓言在供应链上引发冲击波，进口商争相增加订单
Retailers and manufacturing companies have been increasingly calling logistics partners, both in the days leading up to presidential election and on Election Night, about “front loading” shipments ahead of any changes in tariff policy to be pursued by President-elect Donald Trump, who campaigned on an aggressive expansion of existing U.S. tariffs on cross-border trade.
无论是在总统大选前夕还是在选举之夜，零售商和制造公司都越来越多地给物流合作伙伴打电话，要求他们在当选总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）推行的关税政策发生任何变化之前“提前装载”货物。特朗普在竞选时曾宣称要积极扩大美国现有的跨境贸易关税。
Trump has vowed across-the-board tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports arriving into the United States and a 60%-100% tariff on Chinese imports.
特朗普誓言对所有进入美国的进口商品征收10%至20%的全面关税，对中国进口商品征收60%至100%的关税。
“This is 2018 all over again,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, referring to the year during which Trump first imposed sweeping tariffs in his first term. “The calls expand beyond shippers who have Chinese imports. The global tariff threat is fueling calls for frontloading from all around the globe,” he said.
“这是2018年的重演，”ITS Logistics全球供应链副总裁保罗·布拉希尔（Paul Brashier）说，他指的是特朗普在第一个任期内首次全面征收关税的那一年。这些呼声不仅限于从中国进口商品的货主。全球关税威胁正在推动全球各地提前发货的需求，”他说。
Brashier expects Trump’s election to result in increased container demand and vessel bookings, which will then fuel freight rates, trucking and warehouse rates. Trucking stocks, such as J.B. Hunt Transport Services and XPO, were in rally mode on Wednesday, as were freight rails including Norfolk Southern and CSX.
Brashier预计，特朗普的当选将导致集装箱需求和船舶预订量的增加，从而推高运费、卡车运输和仓储费用。J.B. Hunt Transport Services和XPO等卡车类股周三涨势强劲，Norfolk Southern和CSX等货运类股亦是如此。
Among many major market moves on Wednesday as traders and investors digested the Republican wins, the U.S. dollar surged against key international currencies tied to trade on Wednesday, such as the euro and Mexican peso.
随着交易商和投资者消化共和党的胜选，周三市场出现许多重大波动，其中美元兑欧元和墨西哥比索等与周三交易相关的主要国际货币大涨。
Ocean shipping stocks hit on market fears of trade decline
The knee-jerk reaction in shares of ocean carriers, was negative, with a big slump led by Maersk, even though consumer demand remains strong in the U.S. and frontloading of imports would raise ocean rates, at least in the short-term.
由于市场担心贸易下滑，海运类股受到冲击
海运公司股价的本能反应是负面的，马士基领跌，尽管美国消费者需求依然强劲，且进口货物提前装船至少在短期内会推高海运费率。
Shipping analysts described the reaction in Maersk and its peers as excessive. But they added it is based on the belief is tariffs increase the costs of trade, in turn lowering demand and volumes. They noted that did not occur in 2018 and 2019, with volumes growing an average of 12% during those two years.
航运分析师称，马士基及其同行的反应过度。但他们补充说，这是基于这样一种信念，即关税增加了贸易成本，从而降低了需求和数量。他们指出，这在2018年和2019年没有发生，这两年的产量平均增长了12%。
“It speaks to the uncertainty of the situation, rather than the imminent doom,” wrote analyst Ben Slupecki of Morningstar in an email.
Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, said in the short-term there will be a surge in import demand for containerized goods as U.S. companies stock up ahead of any new tariffs. “Especially related to goods which are not time sensitive, said Jensen. “This will create upward pressure on freight rates in the coming months.”
晨星公司（Morningstar）分析师本·斯鲁佩基（Ben Slupecki）在电子邮件中写道，“这说明了形势的不确定性，而不是即将到来的厄运。”
Vespucci Maritime首席执行官Lars Jensen表示，短期内，由于美国公司在任何新关税之前囤积货物，对集装箱货物的进口需求将激增。詹森说：“特别是那些对时间不敏感的商品。“这将在未来几个月给运费带来上行压力。”
According to spot ocean freight rate data tracked by ocean and air freight intelligence platform, Xeneta, the frontloading of freight during the Trump trade war on Chinese imports in 2018 fueled a rise in ocean container shipping freight rates by more than 70%.
根据海运和空运情报平台Xeneta跟踪的现货海运运价数据，2018年特朗普对中国进口商品的贸易战期间，货物的预先装载推动了海运集装箱运输运价上涨超过70%。
Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Xeneta, tells CNBC that shippers will be fearing more of the same with this latest tariff threat. “Shipping is a global industry feeding on international trade, so another Trump presidency is a step in the wrong direction,” said Sand. “The knee-jerk reaction from U.S. shippers will be to frontload imports before Trump is able to impose his new tariffs.”
Xeneta首席航运分析师彼得·桑德（Peter Sand）对CNBC表示，托运人将对最新的关税威胁感到担忧。桑德说：“航运业是一个依赖于国际贸易的全球性行业，所以特朗普再次当选总统是朝着错误的方向迈出的一步。”“美国托运人的本能反应将是在特朗普能够征收新关税之前预先装载进口货物。”
He added that fears of an increase to a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, compared to 25% in 2018, would make the incentive to frontload “even greater.”
他补充说，对中国进口商品的关税从2018年的25%提高到100%的担忧，将使预先装运的动机“更大”。
Slupecki said via email the drop in ocean carriers could present a buying opportunity, but he hesitated to say Maersk will profit from front-loading the election, as there are many other issues in global trade to weigh. He continues to hold a fair value weighting on Maersk and described the drop as an overreaction.
Slupecki通过电子邮件表示，远洋航运公司股价下跌可能带来买入机会，但他不愿说马士基是否会从提前大选中获利，因为全球贸易中还有许多其他问题需要权衡。他继续持有马士基的公允价值权重，并将其描述为反应过度。
“Potential tariffs cause uncertainty but not certain poor performance, as evidenced by performance of these names during the prior tariffs of 2018.”
“A wave of pre-ordering by retailers” ahead of new tariffs would be good for ocean carrier earnings power, according to Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta. However, he said overall volume gains are uncertain and longer-term, the issue is the potential significant slowdown in trade volumes in the coming years.
“潜在的关税会带来不确定性，但不会带来确定的糟糕表现，这些公司在2018年之前的关税期间的表现就证明了这一点。”
杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师奥马尔•诺克塔（Omar Nokta）表示，在新关税出台之前，“零售商的一波预购潮”将有利于海运公司的盈利能力。不过，他表示，整体贸易量的增长是不确定的，从长远来看，问题是未来几年贸易量可能大幅放缓。
“Global trade volumes have risen by 2x the rate of GDP growth this year, and are likely moderate to 1x in 2025, but could fall below that should tariffs impact trade patterns, which would be negative for ocean carrier earnings,” he wrote.
他写道：“今年全球贸易量增长了GDP增长率的两倍，到2025年可能会放缓至GDP增长率的1倍，但如果关税影响贸易模式，可能会低于GDP增长率，这将对海运公司的盈利产生负面影响。”
Republican tariff policy remains difficult to predict Trump has vowed to move fast on tariffs, with Robert Lighthizer, former U.S. Trade Representative during the first Trump term, telling Wall Street money managers in recent weeks that if Trump was reelected, he could start implementing his sweeping tariff proposals quickly after taking office, according to policy analysts at Piper Sandler.
共和党的关税政策仍然难以预测。特朗普誓言要在关税问题上迅速采取行动。派珀·桑德勒（Piper Sandler）的政策分析师表示，特朗普第一个任期内的前美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽（Robert Lighthizer）最近几周告诉华尔街的基金经理，如果特朗普再次当选，他可能会在上任后迅速开始实施他的全面关税提案。
But trade experts expressed caution on reading too much into Trump’s tariff threats right now when attempting to analyze where policy ends up. Matthew Rubel, who served on the Advisory Committee for Trade Policy Negotiation for the White House and USTR for both Presidents Obama and Trump, tells CNBC he does not see a global tariff as an outcome. In negotiations, everything will be on the table.
但贸易专家表示，在试图分析政策最终结果时，不要过度解读特朗普的关税威胁。曾在白宫贸易政策谈判咨询委员会和奥巴马总统和特朗普总统的美国贸易代表办公室任职的马修·鲁贝尔告诉CNBC，他不认为全球关税是结果。在谈判中，一切都将摆在桌面上。
“Tariffs are a tool to be used as an offense to ensure we can trade freely and can build jobs domestically strategically in appropriate categories,” said Rubel. “Lighthizer, under Trump brought to life a policy which negotiated from strength and focused on bilateral agreements. The deals will be crafted to ensure we gain economically. It is nuanced and not one size fits all. Trump’s administration will be clear on a business case,” he said.
鲁贝尔说：“关税是一种用来进攻的工具，以确保我们能够自由贸易，并在适当的类别中战略性地在国内创造就业机会。”“在特朗普的领导下，莱特希泽实施了一项从实力出发谈判、专注于双边协议的政策。这些协议将确保我们获得经济利益。这是微妙的，并不是一刀切的。特朗普政府将在一个商业案例上表明立场。”
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group, said the impact of the tariffs will depend on the execution.
“Depend a lot on whether there will be selective tariffs on certain products/industries or will it be a scattershot approach that sprays them on all imports,” said Boockvar. “The former the market can tolerate, the latter I don’t believe it will.”
布莱克利金融集团（Bleakley Financial Group）首席投资官彼得·布克瓦尔（Peter Boockvar）表示，关税的影响将取决于执行情况。
布克瓦尔说：“这在很大程度上取决于是否会对某些产品/行业征收选择性关税，还是会对所有进口产品征收分散的关税。”“前者市场可以容忍，而后者我不相信。”
“It is an open question what level of tariffs will be imposed,” Jensen said. “Trump has mentioned anything between 100-500% and it is therefore completely unknown what will actually transpire. But, again, that means significant uncertainty for U.S. importers, and the only way to reduce the uncertainty will be to import goods earlier.”
詹森说：“将征收多少关税是一个悬而未决的问题。”“特朗普提到了100%到500%之间的事情，因此完全不知道实际会发生什么。但是，这对美国进口商来说意味着巨大的不确定性，而减少不确定性的唯一方法就是尽早进口商品。”
Steven Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, said he expects Trump to announce new tariffs “in the first few days of his presidency.”
“Companies are deploying a range of strategies to mitigate the inflationary impact these import taxes will soon have. Unfortunately, there are no good tariff mitigation strategies; the challenge is to find the one that is least bad,” Lamar said.
美国服装和鞋类协会（American Apparel and Footwear Association，简称AAFA）的首席执行官Steven Lamar表示，他预计特朗普在上任的最初几天就会宣布新的关税政策。 他还提到，各公司正在部署一系列策略来减轻这些进口税很快将带来的通胀影响。不幸的是，没有好的关税缓解策略；挑战在于找到相对不那么糟糕的一个（策略）。
He added that bringing in product before the inauguration is one approach, but it only provides temporary relief and the import surge this will create is further complicated by upcoming freight issues, including the threat of another labor strike at East Coast ports, and the Lunar New Year, both in the second half of January.
他补充说，一种方法是在就职典礼之前提前进口产品，但这只能提供短期的缓解。此外，这种做法可能会引发进口量的激增，而这种情况将因一月下旬即将出现的货运问题而变得更加复杂。具体来说，这些问题包括东海岸港口可能发生的另一次劳工罢工，以及农历新年假期。
“We will be working with the new Administration and Congress to make sure any new tariffs do not add to the regressive, misogynistic burden hard-working Americans already feel as a result of the existing tariff structure,” Lamar said.
Steven Lamar，美国服装和鞋类协会的首席执行官，表示他将与新政府和国会合作，确保任何新关税不会加剧勤劳的美国人民已经感受到的、由于现行关税结构而产生的倒退和性别歧视的负担。
Mexico trade boom could be target
In addition to the tariffs, the future of the three-country free trade agreement that replaced NAFTA, USMCA, will also be a subject of renegotiation in 2026. President-elect Trump has already said he wants to renegotiate the USMCA deal he made in 2020. One key provision was a requirement for the countries to begin reviewing the trade deal after six years, a process that will begin in July 2026. Chinese manufacturing in Mexico to circumvent the Trump/Biden tariffs will be a likely part of the trade renegotiation.
墨西哥的贸易繁荣可能成为新关税的目标。除了关税之外，取代NAFTA的三国自由贸易协定USMCA的未来也将在2026年成为重新谈判的主题。当选总统特朗普已经表示，他希望重新谈判他在2020年达成的USMCA协议。其中一个关键条款是要求各国在六年后开始审查贸易协议，这个过程将在2026年7月开始。中国在墨西哥的制造业为了规避特朗普/拜登的关税，将成为贸易重新谈判的可能部分。
Logistics companies serving the Mexico to U.S. cross-border trade tell CNBC new Trump tariffs can have a negative impact on historic cross-border truck trade. Through September, year-to-date cross-border trade between Mexico and the U.S. rose around 52%, a record.
Jordan Dewart, CEO of Redwood Mexico, which specializes in cross-border logistics, said leading up to and immediately after the election, his firm fielded many concerns from customers about the immediate proposed tariff changes that would impact northbound goods already in process to be shipped to the US.
为美国和墨西哥之间跨境贸易提供物流服务的公司告诉CNBC，新的特朗普关税可能会对历史上的跨境卡车贸易产生负面影响。截至9月，墨西哥和美国之间的跨境贸易量同比增长了约52%，创下了记录。
Redwood Mexico的首席执行官Jordan Dewart表示，在选举前后，他的公司收到了许多客户关于即将提出的关税变化的担忧，这些变化将影响已经计划运往美国的北向货物。
“Clearly this would have a huge impact on both U.S. and Mexican companies,” said Dewart. “With over $2 billion crossing the border daily even a short term change would have huge repercussions and could cause companies to get ahead of these changes by importing their goods ahead of schedule.”
德瓦特说：“很明显，这将对美国和墨西哥公司产生巨大影响。”“每天有超过20亿美元通过边境，即使是短期的变化也会产生巨大的影响，并可能导致公司通过提前进口商品来提前应对这些变化。”
He added it will create a short term need for storage at the U.S.-Mexico border and may increase overall trade volumes in Q4. “The short-term impact of pulling freight forward will increase freight rates, especially in Mexico, where the driver shortage and fuel prices are already causing upward pressures,” Dewart said. “The Peso, devalued 2.5% overnight, will provide some relief as most rates are negotiated in U.S. dollars.”
他补充说，这将在美墨边境产生短期仓储需求，并可能增加第四季度的总体贸易量。Dewart称：“短期内，货运提前的影响将提高运费，尤其是在墨西哥，司机短缺和燃油价格已经造成了上涨压力。”“比索在一夜之间贬值了2.5%，这将带来一些缓解，因为大多数利率都是以美元协商的。”
Proposed tariffs would cause some companies to further delay their investment in Mexico, according to Dewart, which has been booming. Many European and Asian-based companies have been investing heavily in Mexico as a way to shore up trade strategy. Companies including John Deere, which had been a target of Trump, and Tesla, have both announced recent pullbacks in manufacturing plans within Mexico.
Dewart表示，拟议中的关税将导致一些公司进一步推迟在墨西哥的投资，这些公司一直在蓬勃发展。许多欧洲和亚洲公司一直在墨西哥大举投资，以此作为支撑贸易战略的一种方式。包括曾是特朗普目标的约翰迪尔（John Deere）和特斯拉（Tesla）在内的公司最近都宣布撤回在墨西哥的制造计划。
「CNBC」
