【双语阅读】经济学人：钻石真的是一场骗局吗？

Why diamonds are losing their allure

钻石为何失去了魅力

As an investment category, at least

至少作为一种投资类别确实如此

The appeal of a diamond, for a ring on a finger or to string on a necklace, rests on its sparkle. Its precise value is determined by how well the stone is cut, its colour, its size (also called its “carat”) and whether it contains flaws. The clearer, heavier, closer to colourless and more perfectly cut the rock, the better.

无论是镶嵌在戒指上，还是串在项链上，钻石的魅力都来自于它闪烁的光芒。一颗钻石究竟价值几何，取决于其切割工艺、色泽、大小（以“克拉”衡量）以及是否有瑕疵。越透亮、越重、越接近无色、切工越完美，钻石的价值就越高。

The appeal of a diamond for an investor is that, in addition to being nice to look at, it has historically offered a steady return on investment. Given the opacity of the market, and the broad variety of gems that are available, long-run price data are scarce. 

除了好看之外，钻石对投资者的吸引力在于，它过去带来了稳定的投资回报。鉴于市场的不透明性以及钻石的种类繁多，长期价格数据十分稀缺。

But a paper by Luc Renneboog of Tilburg University, which was published in 2015, analysed thousands of auctions each year, finding that the average return between 1999 and 2012 rivalled those of stocks and property. Holders of diamonds would have earned a handsome 8% or so a year.

但蒂尔堡大学的吕克·伦尼博格在2015年发表的一篇论文分析了从1999年到2012年间每年的数千场拍卖会，发现钻石在此期间的平均回报率堪比股票和房地产。钻石持有者可以获得8%左右可观的年回报率。

Recently, though, these steady returns have given way to enormous volatility. De Beers, a consortium that has long monopolised the supply of diamonds, has reduced the price of two-to-four carat uncut stones—a popular category because they can be made into one-to-two carat engagement rings—by 40%, according to Bloomberg, a news service. 

不过近来，稳定的回报已不复存在，取而代之的是巨大的波动。据彭博社报道，长期垄断钻石供应的戴比尔斯公司已将2至4克未经切割的原石（这一规格的原石很受欢迎，因为它们可以切割成1至2克拉的钻石用于订婚戒指）的价格下调了40%。

On September 13th the company announced that it would re-run its iconic “a diamond is forever” advertising campaign in an attempt to boost demand.

9月13日，该公司宣布将重新打出其标志性的广告语“钻石恒久远，一颗永流传”，以刺激需求。

Stable returns in the past were partly brought about by steady demand. Just as with the investment case for gold, another rare and precious commodity, the logic for holding diamonds tends to be strongest during periods of economic uncertainty. At the same time, the main use of diamonds is in jewellery, which means that prices have tended to do well during periods of prosperity, too.

过去的稳定回报在一定程度上是由稳定的需求带来的。就像投资黄金（另一种稀缺且高价的大宗商品）一样，在经济不稳定时期，持有钻石的理由往往最充分。同时，钻石的主要用途是制作珠宝首饰，这意味着在繁荣时期，其价格往往也会保持得很不错。

But the most important factor was monopolistic supply. For more than a century De Beers managed to dominate the production of gems. This market structure facilitated steady price increases in two ways, as Mr Renneboog has noted. First, by stockpiling supplies De Beers created scarcity. 

但最重要的因素是垄断性供应。一个多世纪以来，戴比尔斯公司一直在钻石生产领域占据主导地位。正如伦尼博格所指出的，这样的市场结构从两个方面促使钻石价格稳步攀升。首先，戴比尔斯公司通过限制供应来制造稀缺性。

Second, the firm curbed speculation, and the volatility it brings. Although De Beers controlled some 80% of the global supply of diamonds in the 1980s, since then its share has been eaten into by competitors, which include Alrosa, a Russian rival. The company now produces just a third of supply.

其次，该公司抑制投机，从而限制了投机造成的价格波动。尽管戴比尔斯公司在20世纪80年代控制了全球约80%的钻石供应，但自那以后其份额一直被竞争对手蚕食，其中包括俄罗斯对手阿尔罗萨公司。现在，戴比尔斯公司只控制了全球三分之一的钻石供应。

Another problem is emerging from laboratories. They are producing artificial gems, which are made by applying pressure to carbon, rather than digging stones from the ground, and are identical to the naked eye. 

另一个问题来自实验室。人们在实验室通过对碳加压来制造人造钻石，而不是从地下挖石头，而且肉眼并不能对二者加以区分。

Such stones have been available since the 1980s, but even as recently as 2018 made up a tiny fraction of the market, at just a few percentage points. In the years since, more lab-grown jewels have entered the market—and their market share has risen to around a tenth.

人造钻石早在20世纪80年代就出现了，但直到2018年才在市场占有一席之地，也只有几个百分点。此后几年，越来越多的人造钻石进入了市场，其市场份额已上升至大约10%。

De Beers argues that, as the supply of lab-grown gems accelerates, the price gap between the two types of stone will continue to widen, making the newcomers unappealing for engagements. If recent price movements are anything to go by, though, the tactic appears likely to backfire—after all, mined prices are plunging in the wake of lab-grown ones.

戴比尔斯公司认为，随着人造钻石供应的加速增长，其与天然钻石之间的价格差距将继续拉大，导致人们不愿意将其用于订婚。不过，从最近的价格走势来看，这种策略很可能要事与愿违——毕竟，随着人造钻石的降价，天然钻石的价格也在暴跌。

(红色标注词为重难点词汇) 

重难点词汇：

monopolistic [məˌnɑpəˈlɪstɪk] adj. 垄断的；独占性的

speculation [ˌspekjuˈleɪʃn] n. 推测；推断；思索；投机