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上海区域国别学会会长、清华大学战略与安全研究中心（CISS）中国论坛特约专家姜锋近日在《中国日报》发表题为“系好安全带（Buckle Up）”的英文评论文章，对特朗普对外政政策特性及其对中美和美欧关系的影响进行分析。
CISS中国论坛特此转发文章中英文版，以飨读者。
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（编译：北京对话 韩桦）
美国当选总统特朗普，一个特立独行者，已使自己成为建制派的“敌人”。特氏规则与世界其他规则大相径庭：以挑战和改变现有体系为核心，包括西方体系。特朗普带入白宫的，不仅仅是家具和工作人员，还包括一种与传统完全不同的政治文化和治理方式。
特朗普的对外关系将以美国利益为标准重新塑造，而这一标准主要是明确以美元计价指标为核心。与美国存在巨额贸易逆差或成为美国安全负担的国家，将被课以赤裸裸的标价。美元，将是唯一的决定性因素。过去所谓的价值观共同体或作为全球唯一超级大国对全球稳定的特殊责任，将不再重要。而这些曾是特朗普第一任期内，欧洲和中国试图说服美国“合作”的原因。然而，这些努力无法改变特朗普的态度。如今，特朗普卷土重来，满怀怒火与报复心理，专注于最大化美国利益。欧洲和中国需要系好安全带，为一段崎岖不平的旅程做准备。
在布鲁塞尔，一些外交官正在进行非常特别的准备。他们似乎希望通过支付更多费用来满足特朗普，以维持过往的商业往来。更为奇怪的是，他们似乎在考虑如何与美国结盟，在对华问题上表现得更强硬，以此让美国看到欧洲在与中国进行战略竞争中的独特价值。布鲁塞尔显然尚未意识到，时代已经改变，现在是一场完全不同的“游戏”。
欧洲对华盛顿权力更迭感到忧虑是有充分理由的。特朗普多次对欧盟在安全、贸易和气候等领域的政策表达不满。他对德国的冷淡态度，不仅体现在与德国领导人（如默克尔）的个人关系上，还体现在对德国外交所秉持的价值观原则的强烈反感。对欧洲而言，特朗普的存在无异于公牛眼中的红布，压力将是巨大的。
欧洲笃信的“北大西洋价值观联盟”，实际上正面临定价考验，尤其是在安全服务方面，特朗普政府将期待欧洲支付高昂代价。然而，欧洲并不确定这笔交易会使其更安全还是更缺乏自主性。此外，欧洲人对于“24小时解决乌克兰危机”的构想仍感到困惑。无论如何，他们很难相信特朗普的方法会符合欧洲的利益。
特朗普重返白宫对中国来说也是一个挑战，但并非未知的挑战。早在2017年，特朗普就通过一系列遏制措施对中国发起了贸易战，而他在第二个任期内很可能会采取更为激进的行动。一个更严重的误判是，美国认为可以像对付苏联那样对付中国，并期望像当初战胜苏联那样战胜中国。然而事实是，苏联的失败是其自身造成的，经济实力的丧失和社会活力的匮乏导致了它的崩溃。相比之下，美国当时是一个蓬勃发展的国家，被许多国家的人民视为道德榜样，“美国梦”是许多人的梦想。
中国已被卷入与美国的“战略竞争”，压力将成倍增加。确实，中国面临的形势非常艰难。尽管美国仍是中国最大的贸易伙伴，但中国与其他地区的贸易关系不断加强，一个多元化的贸易结构正在形成，包括“一带一路”倡议。必须认识到，中美贸易关系是互利的。如果美国破坏这一关系，不仅会伤害中国，也会损害自身利益，并对全球贸易造成破坏。如果未来的特朗普政府未能意识到这一点，将是一个致命的误判。要在这场竞争中生存下来，中国必须在经济上更加强大，社会生活更加充满活力和生机。
时代已经改变。加速的全球气候变化是全人类共同的威胁，只有各国共同努力，特别是主要国家，才能应对这些人类面临的共同挑战。
目前，《联合国气候变化框架公约》、《巴黎协定》等合作机制已经奠定了具有约束力的基础，并为人类提供了希望。然而，美国的权力更迭可能会对这一基础构成挑战。美国可能再次退出《巴黎协定》，甚至放弃《联合国气候变化框架公约》。作为世界最大的经济体，美国还可能重新加大化石燃料的使用力度，放缓风能、太阳能等可再生能源以及电动车等新兴技术的本地化发展，这些技术正受到各国的大力推动。这无疑是对减碳努力的坏消息。中国、欧洲以及世界其他国家应对此保持警惕，并肩负起应尽的责任。
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姜锋参加北京对话活动（图源：北京对话）
The US president-elect Donald Trump has made himself an enemy of the political establishment, and a maverick whose rules differ from the rest of the world, centered on challenging and changing all the existing systems, including those of the Western countries. What he brings to the White House will not just be his furniture and staff, but a fundamentally different political culture and governing behavior from the traditional one.
Externally, international relations will be reshaped by placing them on the scale of US interests, on which there will be primarily clear, dollar-denominated markers. Huge deficits in trade with the United States or the burden of security costs will be judged in naked dollar terms. The dollar, and the dollar alone, will be the determining factor. What used to be called the community of values or the special responsibility of the world's only superpower for global stability will no longer count. This is precisely why Europe and China tried to convince the US to be "cooperative" in his first term. Such efforts won't sway Trump. Trump is back, full of anger and a desire for revenge, and focusing on maximizing interests and profit. Europe and China should fasten their seat belts and prepare themselves for a bumpy ride.Some diplomats in Brussels are making very peculiar preparations. As a matter of fact, they wish to pay more to satisfy Trump for business as before. More peculiarly, they seem to be pondering how to be tougher on China in alliance with the US, so that the US can see the unique value of Europe in its strategic competition with China. Brussels still hasn't recognized that the times have changed. It's a different game now.Europe has good reasons to be anxious about the power shift in Washington. Trump has repeatedly expressed his dissatisfaction with the EU's policies in the fields of security, trade and climate, among others. The impression is that Trump has no enthusiasm for Germany, and this is not just manifested in his personal relationship with German leaders such as Angela Merkel. The principle of values espoused by German diplomacy is like a matador's red cape to a bull to him. The pressure on Europe will be immense.![]()
The North Atlantic value alliance, in which Europe firmly believes, is realistically subject to a pricing test, especially for security services, where the Trump administration will expect Europe to pay a high price, and Europe is not sure if it will be more secure or less autonomous as a result of the deal. Europeans are still unclear about the idea of a 24-hour solution to the Ukraine crisis. Whatever the case, it is hard for them to imagine that Trump's approach will be in the interests of Europeans.Trump's return to the White House is also a challenge for China, but it's not an unknown one. Trump started a trade war with a series of containment measures against China initiated in 2017, and he is likely to do it even more aggressively in his second term. An even more serious miscalculation is that Washington believes it can deal with China as it did with the Soviet Union and expects to defeat China as it did the Soviet Union. The truth is that it was the Soviet Union that defeated itself. The loss of economic strength and lack of social dynamism led to its collapse. In contrast, the US was at that time a thriving country, seen as a moral example by peoples in many countries, and the American dream was the dream of many.China has been drawn into a "strategic competition" with the US, and the pressure will be exponentially increased. It's going to be very difficult for China indeed. Although the US remains China's largest trading partner, China's trade relations with other regions have strengthened and a diversified structure is taking shape, including the Belt and Road Initiative. It is important to understand that the trade relations between the US and China are mutually beneficial. And if the US harms this relationship, it will inflict harm on itself, as well as damage global trade. Failure to recognize this would be a fatal miscalculation of the future Trump administration. To survive this competition, China must be better economically, more dynamic and vital in its social life.Times have changed. The accelerated climate change across borders is a common threat to all mankind. It can only be countered by the joint efforts of all countries, who, especially the major countries, should endeavor to address such common challenges facing mankind.So far, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Paris Agreement and other cooperation mechanisms have laid a binding foundation for this and offered hope for humanity. The change of power in the US may challenge this foundation. The US may once again withdraw from the Paris Agreement or even abandon the UNFCCC. And the world's largest economy may once again step up the use of fossil fuels and slow down local development of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, as well as electric vehicles, which have been vigorously promoted by various countries. This is undoubtedly bad news for decarbonization endeavor. China and Europe, as well as the rest of the world, should be keeping an eye on this and take on their due responsibilities.本文2024年12月22日首发于“北京对话Beijing Club”
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