![]()
Chen Weidong, Director Fellow of Asian
Financial Cooperation Association Think Tankers Committee, General Manager of
the Research Institute, Bank of ChinaLiao Shuping, Xiong Qiyue and Cao Hongyu also contributed to this article.![]( "分割线")
Review of Asian Economic Development from 2023 to Mid-2024The Asian economy maintained a high
growth rate. In 2023, the global geopolitical conflicts intensified, trade
protectionism continued to impact the international economic order, interest
rates in developed economies remained high, and debt pressures in some
developing economies increased. The world economy has not returned to its
pre-epidemic growth track. In 2023, the global real GDP realized a growth rate
of 3.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from 2022 (Figure 1). Despite the
challenging external environment, the Asian economy maintained a rapid growth
rate. The real GDP growth rate in 2023 was 4.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from
2022, higher than the level of developed economies in the world, Europe and the
United States. Among them, real GDP growth rate in emerging markets and
developing economies in Asia was 5.6%, the best performance among all emerging
markets and developing economies (Figure 2). Since 2024, the Asian economy is
expected to continue its strong growth momentum against the backdrop of a
recovery in global consumption of goods and services. The real GDP growth rate
is expected to be around 4.5% in 2024.
Inflation was low in Asia. Inflation
in Asia has generally declined in 2023, driven by falling commodity prices and
tighter monetary policy. In contrast, CPI in the US and Eurozone rose by 4.1%
and 6.3% year on year, respectively, significantly higher than CPI growth in
Asia (Figure 3). Since 2024, inflation in Asia has continued its downward trend
as a whole. However, inflation in some economies has shown strong stickiness
and remains at a high level, such as Turkey, Laos, Lebanon, Iran, Bangladesh
and Pakistan.
![]()
Source: IMF, UNCTAD.
Figure 1 Growth rate of
real GDP in Asia, Europe and the United States
![]()
Source: IMF.
Figure 2 Real GDP
growth in emerging markets and developing economies
![]()
Source: IMF.
Figure 3 Inflation in
Asia vs. the United States and Europe
East Asian economies recovered and
prices remained stable. The real GDP growth rate in East Asia was 4.3% in 2023,
significantly higher than the 2.5% growth rate in 2022. China and Japan, the
two largest economies in the region, grew their real GDP by 2.2 and 0.9
percentage points, respectively, from 2022, supporting regional growth. South
Korea's economic growth has slowed significantly due to the trade downturn,
with real GDP growing by just 1.4% in 2023, falling to its lowest level since
2020. Taiwan, China was also suffering from sluggish international trade
activity, with real GDP growth slowing from 2022. Economic growth in Hong Kong,
China and Macao, China has recovered significantly, and the liberalization of
the movement of people has helped the two economies rebound rapidly. In the
first half of 2024, East Asia's economic performance was divided. China's real
GDP grew by 5.0% YoY, and the quarter-on-quarter growth rate was positive for
the eighth consecutive quarter, with consumption continuing its recovery and
driving real GDP growth by 3.0 percentage points. Japan's economy fell before
rising, with real GDP growth in the first and second quarters at an annualized
rate of -2.3% and 3.1% respectively. Driven by exports, South Korea's economy
achieved a rapid recovery. Its real GDP grew by 2.8% in the first half of the
year, while exports grew by 9.1% YoY. Exports drove GDP growth by 4.3 and 2.4
percentage points in the first two quarters, respectively. However, domestic
demand performed poorly, dragging GDP growth by 1.0 and 0.1 percentage points
in the two quarters. With the exception of Mongolia's CPI growth rate of more than
10%, the overall inflation level in East Asia was low. In 2023, Japan's CPI
grew by 3.3%, and core CPI growth rate after removing fresh food was 3.1%, a
41-year high (Table 1).Table 1 Economic
Performance of East Asian Economies[1]![]()
Source: IMF.
Economic growth in Southeast Asia
slowed and inflation eased. Due to adverse factors such as the slowdown in
trade activity growth and geopolitical turmoil, the economic growth of
Southeast Asian countries in 2023 generally slowed down compared with 2022. Southeast
Asia's real GDP growth slowed to 4.1%, down 1.4 percentage points from 2022. In
2023, real GDP growth rates in the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia were
5.5%, 5.1% and 5.0% respectively, leading the region in terms of economic
growth. Compared to 2022, real GDP growth in the six large economies in the
region (hereinafter referred to as the "ASEAN-6") slowed. Malaysia,
Vietnam, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia saw real GDP growth
declines of 5.0, 3.0, 2.7, 2.1, 0.6 and 0.3 percentage points respectively,
while Brunei and Myanmar returned to positive growth from negative growth in
2022.(Table 2) The slowdown in trade growth has had a significant negative
impact on the regional economic growth performance. In 2023, Southeast Asia's
foreign trade generally showed a downward trend and then an upward trend.
Exports of the ASEAN-6 decreased by 6.9% YoY and imports decreased by 8.4% YoY,
of which the import and export value of the second and third quarters have seen
a double-digit decline or more, and began to recover in the fourth quarter.
Since 2024, the gradual recovery of manufacturing and tourism has pushed the
regional economy to maintain rapid growth. Southeast Asia's real GDP growth is
expected to be around 4.6% for the full year, up 0.5 percentage points from the
previous year. In terms of inflation, the overall inflation in Southeast Asia
showed a downward trend in 2023. Inflationary pressure in the Philippines among
the ASEAN-6 was relatively high, with CPI growth of 6.0% for the year. In
addition, Laos and Myanmar were also facing greater inflationary pressure, with
CPI growth exceeding 20% in 2023.Table 2 Economic performance of South East Asian
economies![]()
Source: IMF.
Economic performance in South Asia
was fragmented, with inflation falling overall. India's economic growth rate
led South Asia. India's real GDP grew by 8.2% in FY2023 (April 2023-March
2024), up from 7.0% in FY2022. The secondary sector was strong, with
manufacturing and construction both growing by 9.9%. In the first quarter of
2024, India's real GDP grew by 7.8% YoY, continuing to grow strongly. India's
real GDP growth in FY2024 is expected to be around 6.5%-7.0%, slower than in
FY2023, according to the Indian Ministry of Finance's economic survey. The
economies of Bangladesh and Bhutan have performed well, with real GDP growth
rate of 6.0% and 4.6% respectively in 2023. However, economic growth will be
adversely impacted by political instability in Bangladesh in 2024, when
manufacturers in some manufacturing sectors (such as textiles) have experienced
shutdowns and severely disrupted production and trade activities. Sri Lanka's
economy continued to experience negative growth, but the decline narrowed, from
-7.8% in 2022 to -2.3% in 2023. The year-on-year growth rate of real GDP in the
four quarters of 2023 was -10.7%, -3.0%, 1.6% and 4.5% respectively, with the
economy gradually stabilizing (Table 3).Table 3 Economic performance of South Asian
economies![]()
Source: IMF.
The Central Asian economy maintained
a high growth rate and high inflation levels. In 2023, the overall economy of
Central Asia maintained a rapid growth trend. The real GDP growth rate in
Kazakhstan, the region's largest economy, rose 1.8 percentage points to 5.1%;
Tajikistan's economic growth rate increased slightly, and its real GDP
maintained a high growth rate of 8.3%; Turkmenistan's economic growth was under
great downward pressure, with real GDP growth falling to 2.0% from 5.3% in
2022. Compared with the rest of Asia, price increases in the five Central Asian
countries were relatively high, with CPI growth rates in all economies except
Tajikistan and Turkmenistan above double-digit YoY (Table 4).Table 4 Economic performance of Central Asian
economies![]()
Source: IMF, the World Bank.
Economic growth in West Asia slowed
down and inflationary pressures were under control. Due to fluctuations in
international oil prices and other factors, the economic growth of major oil
and gas exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and
Qatar has slowed sharply. Turkey, Lebanon and Iran were facing high inflation,
capital outflows and depreciation of their currencies. In addition, events such
as the earthquake in Turkey and the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict
have had a serious impact on the regional economy (Table 5). Economic growth in
West Asia is expected to pick up to around 3.5% in 2024, but it is still among
the lowest among major Asian regions.Table 5 Economic performance of West Asian economies![]()
Source: IMF、UNCTAD.
[1] GDP growth rate of each region is calculated from the weighted
average of GDP size data, similarly hereinafter.
【This article is AFCA Working Paper No. 2024-25/188】
Expert Biography
Chen Weidong, Director
Fellow of Asian Financial Cooperation Association Think Tankers Committee,
General Manager of the Research Institute, Bank of China. Dr. Chen joined the
Bank in 1999, and was closely involved in the IPO of Bank of China Hong Kong
Limited and the restructuring and IPO of the Bank. From 2005 to 2011, Dr. Chen
was the Deputy General Manager of the Strategic Development, Bank of China.
From 2011 to 2014, he served as the Vice President of Bank of China Liaoning
Branch. From 2014 to 2019, Dr. Chen served as the Executive Deputy Director and
the Director of the Institute of International Finance, Bank of China. Dr. Chen
is also the Secretary General of the China International Finance Society since
February 2015, and the chief editor of the journals of Studies of International
Finance and International Finance since July 2014.He graduated from the
International Economy Department, Renmin University of China with a Ph.D. in
economics in 1997.
Liao Shuping, Xiong Qiyue
and Cao Hongyu also contributed to this article.
About AFTTC
Asian Financial Cooperation
Association(AFCA) was founded in May 2017. It is the first international
financial social organization initiated by China. Asian Financial Cooperation
Association Think Tankers Committee (AFTTC) is composed of over a hundred domestic
and foreign experts from more than forty countries and regions. With the philosophy of
"market location, global perspective, problem orientation, in-depth
observation, and smart solution", AFTTC has developed AFCA working paper,
Asian Financial Observation, Financial Development Report for the
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and other bilingual products,
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