Journal of Political Economy JPE 2025年 1月刊 目录与摘要

刊发卷期：Volume 133,Number 1

刊发时间：January 2025

期刊等级：ABS 4*

出版厂商：University of Chicago Press

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目录

1.Long-Term Care Insurance and the Family

Corina Mommaerts

2.College Attrition and the Dynamics of Information Revelation

Peter Arcidiacono, Esteban Aucejo, Arnaud Maurel, and Tyler Ransom

3.Bubble Necessity Theorem

Tomohiro Hirano and Alexis Akira Toda

4.Endogenous Liquidity and Capital Reallocation

Wei Cui, Randall Wright, and Yu Zhu

5.Disequilibrium Play in Tennis

Axel Anderson, Jeremy Rosen, John Rust, and Kin-Ping Wong

6.The Value of Information in Competitive Markets: Evidence from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Jose Enrique Galdon-Sanchez, Ricard Gil, and Guillermo Uriz-Uharte

7.Mobility for All: Representative Intergenerational Mobility Estimates over the Twentieth Century

Elisa Jácome, Ilyana Kuziemko, and Suresh Naidu

8.Occupational Choice, Matching, and Earnings Inequality

Eric Mak and Aloysius Siow

摘要

1.Long-Term Care Insurance and the Family

Corina Mommaerts

This paper examines whether informal care by family members influences the demand for long-term care insurance. Motivated by evidence that the availability of informal caregivers correlates with lower insurance demand and that informal care substitutes for formal care, I estimate a dynamic model of long-term care decisions between an elderly parent and her adult child. The availability of informal care lowers demand for insurance by 7 percentage points and suppresses Medicaid spending. A policy that provides equivalent cash benefits for informal care for such families can generate meaningful increases in insurance demand and family welfare and decreases in Medicaid spending.

2.College Attrition and the Dynamics of Information Revelation

Peter Arcidiacono, Esteban Aucejo, Arnaud Maurel, and Tyler Ransom

We examine how informational frictions impact schooling and work outcomes by estimating a dynamic structural model where individuals face uncertainty about their academic ability and productivity, which determine their schooling utility and wages. We account for different college types, majors, occupational search frictions, and work hours. Individuals learn from grades and wages, which may affect their choices. Removing informational frictions would increase graduation by 4.4 percentage points and by an additional 2 points without search frictions. Providing students with full information about their abilities would increase the college and white-collar wage premia while reducing the graduation gap by family income.

3.Bubble Necessity Theorem

Tomohiro Hirano and Alexis Akira Toda

Asset price bubbles are situations where asset prices exceed the fundamental values defined by the present value of dividends. This paper presents a conceptually new perspective: the necessity of bubbles. We establish the bubble necessity theorem in a plausible general class of economic models: with faster long-run economic growth (G) than dividend growth (Gd) and counterfactual long-run autarky interest rate (R) below dividend growth, all equilibria are bubbly with nonnegligible bubble sizes relative to the economy. This bubble necessity condition naturally arises in economies with sufficiently strong savings motives and multiple factors or sectors with uneven productivity growth.

4.Endogenous Liquidity and Capital Reallocation

Wei Cui, Randall Wright, and Yu Zhu

This paper studies economies where firms acquire capital in primary markets and then, after idiosyncratic productivity shocks, retrade it in secondary markets that incorporate bilateral trade with search, bargaining, and liquidity frictions. We distinguish between full or partial sales (one firm gets all or some of the other’s capital) and document several long- and short-run empirical patterns between these variables and the cost of liquidity, as measured by inflation. Quantitatively, the model can match these patterns plus the standard business cycle facts. We also investigate the impact of search frictions, monetary and fiscal policy, persistence in shocks, and returns to scale.

5.Disequilibrium Play in Tennis

Axel Anderson, Jeremy Rosen, John Rust, and Kin-Ping Wong

Do the world’s best tennis pros play Nash equilibrium mixed strategies? We answer this question using data on serve-direction choices (to the receiver’s left, right, or body) from the Match Charting Project. Using a new approach, we test and reject a key implication of a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium: that the probability of winning the service game is identical for all possible serve strategies. We calculate best-response serve strategies by dynamic programming (DP) and show that for most elite pro servers, the DP strategy significantly increases their win probability relative to the mixed strategies they actually use.

6.The Value of Information in Competitive Markets: Evidence from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Jose Enrique Galdon-Sanchez, Ricard Gil, and Guillermo Uriz-Uharte

We empirically investigate how the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) changes when gaining access to market information. To do so, we evaluate the impact of an information program diffused by a bank among its SME customers. Adopting firms gained access to reports with rich information about their own clientele and that of nearby establishments. While we find that adoption is associated with a 4.5% revenue increase, our instrumental variable results indicate that adoption increases revenue by 9%. The main mechanism driving our result is that the new information prompted adopting establishments to target gender-age customer groups underserved before adoption.

7.Mobility for All: Representative Intergenerational Mobility Estimates over the Twentieth Century

Elisa Jácome, Ilyana Kuziemko, and Suresh Naidu

We estimate long-run trends in intergenerational relative mobility for representative samples of the US-born population. Harmonizing all surveys that include father’s occupation and own family income, we develop a mobility measure that allows for the inclusion of nonwhite individuals and women for the 1910s–1970s birth cohorts. We show that mobility increases between the 1910s and 1940s cohorts and that the decline of Black-white income gaps explains about half of this rise. We also find that excluding Black Americans, particularly women, considerably overstates the level of mobility for twentieth-century birth cohorts while simultaneously understating its increase between the 1910s and 1940s.

8.Occupational Choice, Matching, and Earnings Inequality

Eric Mak and Aloysius Siow

We combine classic occupational choice (Roy model) and frictionless matching (following Sattinger) to explain earnings by occupation and firm in a way that is consistent with double assignment. In our model, within-firm inequality is globally nonzero whenever there is asymmetry in the revenue function or the occupational skill distribution across occupations. Occupational earnings overlap each other, and, unlike in the Roy model, the distributions of potential earnings are endogenous. In line with recent empirical findings on earning decomposition, skill-biased technical change increases within-firm inequality mostly among high-wage firms and not among low-wage firms.