American Economic Review 2025年 1月刊 目录与摘要

刊发卷期：Vol. 115, Issue 1

刊发时间：January 2025

期刊等级：ABS 4*

出版厂商：American Economic Association

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目录

1. Five Facts about MPCs: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

Johannes Boehm, Etienne Fize, and Xavier Jaravel

2. Universalism: Global Evidence

Alexander W. Cappelen, Benjamin Enke, and Bertil Tungodden

3. In Harm's Way? Infrastructure Investments and the Persistence of Coastal Cities

Clare Balboni

4. Price Floors and Employer Preferences: Evidence from a Minimum Wage Experiment

John J. Horton

5. Heterogeneity in School Value Added and the Private Premium

Tahir Andrabi, Natalie Bau, Jishnu Das, and Asim I. Khwaja

6. Organized Voters: Elections and Public Funding of Nonprofits

Camille Urvoy

7. The Global Financial Resource Curse

Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro, and Martin Wolf

8. Dying or Lying? For-Profit Hospices and End-of-Life Care

Jonathan Gruber, David H. Howard, Jetson Leder-Luis, and Theodore L. Caputi

9. Whatever It Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises

Valentin Haddad, Alan Moreira, and Tyler Muir

10. Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence from the Lab and Field

Rawley Heimer, Zwetelina Iliewa, Alex Imas, and Martin Weber

摘要

1. Five Facts about MPCs: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

Johannes Boehm, Etienne Fize, and Xavier Jaravel

We present five facts from an experiment on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of transitory transfers: (1) the one-month MPC on a cash-like transfer is 23 percent; (2) it is substantially higher (61 percent) on a transfer administered via a card where remaining funds expire after three weeks, inconsistent with money fungibility; (3) the consumption response is concentrated in the first three weeks; (4) MPCs vary with household characteristics but are high even for the liquid wealthy; (5) unconditional MPC distribution exhibits large variation. Our findings inform the design of stimulus policies and pose challenges to existing macroeconomic models.

2. Universalism: Global Evidence

Alexander W. Cappelen, Benjamin Enke, and Bertil Tungodden

This paper leverages nationally representative surveys across 60 countries and 64,000 respondents to present novel stylized facts about the relationship-specific nature of altruism. Across individuals, universalist preferences systematically vary with demographics such as age and religiosity and are predictive of many left-wing political views, albeit in culturally highly heterogeneous ways. Across countries, universalism is strongly linked to a broader radius of trust. Looking at origins, universalism varies with the economic, political, and religious organization of societies in ways that are consistent with the idea that the scope of altruism is partly shaped by economic incentives and democracy.

3. In Harm's Way? Infrastructure Investments and the Persistence of Coastal Cities

Clare Balboni

Coasts contain a disproportionate share of the world's population, reflecting historical advantages, but environmental change threatens a reversal of coastal fortune in the coming decades as natural disasters intensify and sea levels rise. This paper considers whether large infrastructure investments should continue to favor coastal areas. I estimate a dynamic spatial equilibrium framework using detailed geo-referenced data on road investments in Vietnam from 2000 to 2010 and find evidence that coastal favoritism has significant costs. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the dynamic effects of environmental change in deciding where to allocate infrastructure today.

4. Price Floors and Employer Preferences: Evidence from a Minimum Wage Experiment

John J. Horton

Firms posting job openings in an online labor market were randomly assigned minimum hourly wages. When facing a minimum wage, fewer firms hired, but those they did hire paid higher wages. Hours-worked fell substantially. Treated firms shifted to hiring more productive workers. Using the platform's imposition of a market-wide minimum wage after the experiment, I find that many of the experimental results also hold in equilibrium, including the substitution towards more productive workers. However, there was also a large reduction in the number of jobs posted for which the minimum wage would likely bind.

5. Heterogeneity in School Value Added and the Private Premium

Tahir Andrabi, Natalie Bau, Jishnu Das, and Asim I. Khwaja

We estimate and validate test score–based measures of school quality (school value added, or SVA) in Pakistan. We document substantial variation in SVA within villages and within the public and private sectors, leading to a wide range of possible estimates of the private premium. We also show that parents value SVA. Heterogeneity in parental demand for quality helps explain both the evolution of the market over time and cross-market variation in school quality. The supply side responds to parental demand for quality in the private sector, but there is no evidence it does so in the public sector.

6. Organized Voters: Elections and Public Funding of Nonprofits

Camille Urvoy

What makes politicians respond to civil society organizations' demands? I use new data on government transfers to French associations and exploit close elections to show that politicians grant more funds to ideologically close organizations when the local incumbent is a political ally and was elected by a small margin. The results are consistent with politicians and organizations exchanging financial support for electoral support. Organizations secure funding because of the votes they can deliver, not because of their campaign contributions; however, the fact that transfers appear to be conditioned on support may undermine their ability to help hold politicians accountable.

7. The Global Financial Resource Curse

Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro, and Martin Wolf

We provide a model connecting the global saving glut to productivity growth. The key feature is that the tradable sector is the engine of growth of the economy. Capital flows from developing countries to the United States boost demand for US nontradable goods, inducing a reallocation of US economic activity from the tradable sector to the nontradable one. In turn, lower profits in the tradable sector lead firms to cut back investment in innovation. Since innovation in the United States determines the evolution of the world technological frontier, the result is a drop in global productivity growth.

8. Dying or Lying? For-Profit Hospices and End-of-Life Care

Jonathan Gruber, David H. Howard, Jetson Leder-Luis, and Theodore L. Caputi

The Medicare hospice program is intended to provide palliative care to terminal patients, but patients with long stays in hospice are highly profitable, motivating concerns about overuse among the Alzheimer's and Dementia (ADRD) population in the rapidly growing for-profit sector. We provide the first causal estimates of the effect of for-profit hospice on patient spending using the entry of for-profit hospices over 20 years. We find hospice has saved money for Medicare by offsetting other expensive care among ADRD patients. As a result, policies limiting hospice use including revenue caps and antifraud lawsuits are distortionary and deter potentially cost-saving admissions.

9. Whatever It Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises

Valentin Haddad, Alan Moreira, and Tyler Muir

At the announcement of a new policy, agents form a view of state-contingent policy actions and impact. We develop a method to estimate this state-contingent perception and implement it for many asset-purchase interventions worldwide. Expectations of larger support in bad states—"policy puts"—explain a large fraction of the announcements' impact. For example, when the Fed introduced purchases of corporate bonds in March 2020, markets expected five times more price support had conditions worsened relative to the median scenario. Perceived promises of additional support in bad states alter asset prices, risk, and the response to future announcements.

10. Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence from the Lab and Field

Rawley Heimer, Zwetelina Iliewa, Alex Imas, and Martin Weber

We document a robust dynamic inconsistency in risky choice. Using a unique brokerage dataset and a series of experiments, we compare people's initial risk-taking plans to their subsequent decisions. Across settings, people accept risk as part of a loss-exit strategy—planning to continue taking risk after gains and stopping after losses. Actual behavior deviates from initial strategies by cutting gains early and chasing losses. More people accept risk when offered a commitment to their initial strategy. Our results help reconcile seemingly contradictory findings on risk-taking in static versus dynamic contexts. We explore implications for theory and welfare.