AEJ: Macroeconomics 2024年 10月刊 目录与摘要
刊发卷期：Vol. 16, Issue 4
刊发时间：October 2024
期刊等级：ABS 3
出版厂商：American Economic Association
目录
1. Labor Substitutability among Schooling Groups
Mark Bils, Bariş Kaymak, and Kai-Jie Wu
2. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a Model with Low Interest Rates
Jianjun Miao and Dongling Su
3. Labor Market Effects of Workweek Restrictions: Evidence from the Great Depression
Price Fishback, Chris Vickers, and Nicolas L. Ziebarth
4. Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?
Terry Fitzgerald, Callum Jones, Mariano Kulish, and Juan Pablo Nicolini
5. A Simple Explanation of Countercyclical Uncertainty
Joshua Bernstein, Michael Plante, Alexander W. Richter, and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
6. The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy
Lorenzo Burlon, Manuel A. Muñoz, and Frank Smets
7. Population, Productivity, and Sustainable Consumption
Robert S. Pindyck
8. Entrepôt: Hubs, Scale, and Trade Costs
Sharat Ganapati, Woan Foong Wong, and Oren Ziv
9. Idiosyncratic Income Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations
Davide Debortoli and Jordi Galí
10. Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations
Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu
11. International Friends and Enemies
Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu, and Stephen J. Redding
12. New Facts on Consumer Price Rigidity in the Euro Area
Erwan Gautier, Cristina Conflitti, Riemer P. Faber, Brian Fabo, Ludmila Fadejeva, Valentin Jouvanceau, Jan-Oliver Menz, Teresa Messner, Pavlos Petroulas, Pau Roldan-Blanco, Fabio Rumler, Sergio Santoro, Elisabeth Wieland, and Hélène Zimmer
13. When Interest Rates Go Low, Should Public Debt Go High?
Johannes Brumm, Xiangyu Feng, Laurence Kotlikoff, and Felix Kubler
14. The Elasticity of Aggregate Output with Respect to Capital and Labor
Dietrich Vollrath
摘要
1. Labor Substitutability among Schooling Groups
Mark Bils, Bariş Kaymak, and Kai-Jie Wu
Given worldwide trends in education, wage premium for schooling, and real GDP, we derive a lower bound for the long-run elasticity of labor substitution across schooling groups of around 4, which is far higher than values commonly used in the literature. We exploit our bound to reexamine the importance of human capital in cross-country income differences, including the roles of school quality versus the skill bias of technology in the greater efficiency gains from schooling in richer countries.
2. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a Model with Low Interest Rates
Jianjun Miao and Dongling Su
We provide a new Keynesian model where entrepreneurs face uninsurable idiosyncratic investment risk and credit constraints. Government bonds provide liquidity services. Multiple steady states with positive values of public debt can be supported for a given permanent deficit-to-output ratio. The steady-state interest rates are lower than the economic growth rate, and public debt contains a bubble component. We analyze the determinacy regions of policy parameter space and find that a large set of monetary and fiscal policy parameters can achieve debt and inflation stability given persistent fiscal deficits both away from and at the zero interest rate lower bound.
3. Labor Market Effects of Workweek Restrictions: Evidence from the Great Depression
Price Fishback, Chris Vickers, and Nicolas L. Ziebarth
We study the effects of restrictions on the length of the workweek under the President's Reemployment Agreement (PRA) of July 1933 and the National Industrial Recovery Act. We construct a model in which the equilibrium without such a workweek restriction has an inefficiently low level of employment. We find that employment rose by about 24 percent in the month following the imposition of the workweek restriction. Industries with longer workweeks pre-PRA experienced 9.4 percent faster growth in hourly earnings post-PRA, but this increase was not sufficient to prevent a relative fall in weekly earnings in these industries.
4. Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?
Terry Fitzgerald, Callum Jones, Mariano Kulish, and Juan Pablo Nicolini
Evaluating the stability of the Phillips curve using aggregate data is challenging due to the bias that endogenous monetary policy imparts on estimated Phillips curve coefficients. We argue that regional data can be used to identify the structural relationship between unemployment and inflation. Our analysis, using city- and state-level data from 1977 to 2017, is consistent with the notion that both the reduced-form and the structural parameters of the Phillips curve are, to a substantial degree, quite stable.
5. A Simple Explanation of Countercyclical Uncertainty
Joshua Bernstein, Michael Plante, Alexander W. Richter, and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
This paper documents that labor search and matching frictions generate countercyclical uncertainty because the inherent nonlinearity in the flow of new matches makes employment uncertainty increasing in the number of people searching for work. Quantitatively, this mechanism is strong enough to explain uncertainty and real activity dynamics, including their correlation. Through this lens, uncertainty fluctuations are endogenous responses to changes in real activity that neither affect the severity of business cycles nor warrant policy intervention, in contrast with leading theories of the interaction between uncertainty and real activity dynamics.
6. The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy
Lorenzo Burlon, Manuel A. Muñoz, and Frank Smets
We show that the estimated effect of digital euro news on bank stock valuations and lending depends on the bank's deposit reliance and the central bank digital currency (CBDC) design features. Using a quantitative DSGE model calibrated to the euro area economy that replicates such evidence, we find that CBDC issuance yields nontrivial welfare trade-offs between, on one side, the positive expansion of liquidity services and the improved stabilization of deposit funding and lending and, on the other side, a negative bank disintermediation effect. The optimal amount of CBDC lies between 15 and 45 percent of quarterly GDP.
7. Population, Productivity, and Sustainable Consumption
Robert S. Pindyck
How does sustainable consumption depend on productivity growth, the size and growth rate of the population, and uncertainty over these growth rates? I address these questions using a model in which productivity and population growth are stochastic and human lives can have (positive or negative) intrinsic social value. I show how sustainable consumption depends on expected rates of productivity and population growth, the volatility of those rates, and the dependence of welfare on population. For plausible parameter values, sustainable consumption is well below the optimal welfare-maximizing level. This raises a question: given its cost, should sustainability be a social objective?
8. Entrepôt: Hubs, Scale, and Trade Costs
Sharat Ganapati, Woan Foong Wong, and Oren Ziv
We study the global trade network and quantify its trade and welfare impact. We document that the trade network is a hub-and-spoke system where 80 percent of trade is shipped indirectly and largely via entrepôts—major hubs that facilitate trade between many origins and destinations. We estimate indirect-shipping-consistent trade costs using a model where shipments can be sent indirectly through an endogenous transport network and develop a geography-based instrument to estimate scale economies in shipping. Network and scale effects propagate local trade cost changes globally. Counterfactual infrastructure improvements at entrepôts generate ten times the global welfare impact relative to nonentrepôts.
9. Idiosyncratic Income Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations
Davide Debortoli and Jordi Galí
We study how the presence of idiosyncratic income risk affects aggregate fluctuations in the absence of binding borrowing constraints and/or cyclical income risk. Its impact is shown to be captured by the response of a consumption-weighted average of individual consumption risk to aggregate shocks. We analyze two example economies—an endowment economy and a New Keynesian economy—and show that, under plausible calibrations, the impact of idiosyncratic income risk on aggregate fluctuations is quantitatively small since most of the changes in consumption risk are concentrated among poorer (low-consumption) households.
10. Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations
Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu
We argue that the threat of automation weakens workers' bargaining power in wage negotiations, dampening wage adjustments and amplifying unemployment fluctuations. We make this argument based on a business cycle model with labor market search frictions, generalized to incorporate automation decisions. In the model, procyclical automation threats create endogenous real wage rigidity that amplifies labor market fluctuations. The automation mechanism is consistent with empirical evidence. It is also quantitatively important for explaining the large volatilities of unemployment and vacancies relative to that of real wages, a puzzling observation through the lens of standard business cycle models.
11. International Friends and Enemies
Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu, and Stephen J. Redding
We examine whether, as countries become more economically dependent on a trade partner, they realign politically toward that trade partner. We use network measures of economic exposure to foreign productivity growth derived from the class of trade models with a constant trade elasticity. We establish causality using two different sources of quasi-experimental variation: China's emergence into the global economy and the reduction in the cost of air travel over time. In both cases, we find that increased economic friendship causes increased political friendship and that our theory-based network measures dominate simpler measures of trading relationships between countries.
12. New Facts on Consumer Price Rigidity in the Euro Area
Erwan Gautier, Cristina Conflitti, Riemer P. Faber, Brian Fabo, Ludmila Fadejeva, Valentin Jouvanceau, Jan-Oliver Menz, Teresa Messner, Pavlos Petroulas, Pau Roldan-Blanco, Fabio Rumler, Sergio Santoro, Elisabeth Wieland, and Hélène Zimmer
Using CPI micro data for 11 euro area countries over 2010–2019, we document new findings on consumer price rigidity in the euro area: (i) the average frequency of price changes is 12 percent; (ii) the distribution of price changes is highly dispersed, with frequent large and small changes; (iii) price changes are more frequent in January; and (iv) the overall size of price changes rises with inflation, but their frequency does not; these changes in the size are driven by movements in the fraction of price changes that are increases, not by the absolute size of price increases or decreases.
13. When Interest Rates Go Low, Should Public Debt Go High?
Johannes Brumm, Xiangyu Feng, Laurence Kotlikoff, and Felix Kubler
Is deficit finance free when real borrowing rates are routinely lower than growth rates? Specifically, can the government make all generations better off by perpetually taking from the young and giving to the old? We study this in stochastic closed- and open-economy OLG models. Unfortunately, Pareto gains are predicted only for implausible calibrations. Even then, the gains reflect improved intergenerational risk sharing, improved international risk sharing, and beggaring thy neighbor—not intergenerational redistribution, per se. As we show, theoretically and quantitatively, low government borrowing rates suggest state-contingent bilateral transfers between generations—not unconditional, unilateral redistribution from future to current generations.
14. The Elasticity of Aggregate Output with Respect to Capital and Labor
Dietrich Vollrath
It is often assumed that the elasticity of GDP with respect to capital is one-third, but this assumes zero markups and an aggregate production function. I estimate the elasticity allowing markups to vary by industry and with a rich input-output structure. Assumptions about capital costs provide bounds on elasticity. In the United States from 1948–1995, the capital elasticity ranged from 0.19–0.32 and shifted to 0.24–0.37 by 1996–2018. Excluding housing or decapitalizing intellectual property lowers bounds to as low as 0.11–0.26. Based on these elasticities, common estimates of total factor productivity growth represent a lower bound.
