International Economic Review 2024年 11月刊 目录与摘要
刊发卷期：Volume 65, Issue 4
刊发时间：November 2024
期刊等级：ABS 4
出版厂商：Wiley-Blackwell
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目录
1.2020 Klein Lecture—Investment and Subjective Uncertainty
Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Lucia Foster, Scott Ohlmacher, Itay Saporta-Eksten
2.RAZOR‐THIN MASS ELECTIONS WITH HIGH TURNOUT
David K. Levine, Cesar Martinelli
3.THE IMPACT OF A LARGE DEPRECIATION ON THE COST OF LIVING OF RICH AND POOR CONSUMERS
Anatoli Colicev, Joris Hoste, Jozef Konings
4.MIDDLEMEN IN SEARCH EQUILIBRIUM WITH INTENSIVE AND EXTENSIVE MARGINS
Grace Xun Gong, Randall Wright
5.SPOUSAL LABOR SUPPLY, CAREGIVING, AND THE VALUE OF DISABILITY INSURANCE
Siha Lee
6.TRADE SHOCKS AND HIGHER‐ORDER EARNINGS RISK IN LOCAL LABOR MARKETS
Tomás R. Martinez, Ursula Mello
7.FRICTIONAL SORTING: THE IMPACTS OF DUAL CONSTRAINTS ON MOBILITY AND HOUSING SUPPLY IN CHINA
Wenquan Liang, Ran Song, Christopher Timmins
8.CORPORATE EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Mirela S. Miescu, Haroon Mumtaz
9.ASSET‐MARKET SENTIMENTS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS
Xuewen Liu, Pengfei Wang, Sichuang Xu
10.FIGHTING COLLUSION: AN IMPLEMENTATION THEORY APPROACH
Helmuts Āzacis, Péter Vida
11.TORT LIABILITY AND UNAWARENESS
Surajeet Chakravarty, David Kelsey, Joshua C. Teitelbaum
12.HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY
Sami Alpanda, Melissa Hyunji Song, Sarah Zubairy
13.SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE IN INCOMPLETE‐INFORMATION BARGAINING: THEORY AND WIDESPREAD EVIDENCE FROM THE FIELD
Daniel Keniston, Bradley J. Larsen, Shengwu Li, J.J. Prescott, Bernardo S. Silveira, Chuan Yu
14.A MODEL OF GROSS CAPITAL FLOWS: RISK SHARING AND FINANCIAL FRICTIONS
Hyunju Lee
15.SOVEREIGN UNCERTAINTY
Edgar Silgado-Gómez
16.ADD‐ON PRICING OVER REGIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES: EVIDENCE FROM EXTENDED WARRANTIES
Branko Bošković, Sacha Kapoor, Agnieszka Markiewicz, Barry Scholnick
摘要
1.2020 Klein Lecture—Investment and Subjective Uncertainty
Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Lucia Foster, Scott Ohlmacher, Itay Saporta-Eksten
A longstanding challenge in evaluating the impact of uncertainty on investment is obtaining measures of managers’ subjective uncertainty. We address this challenge by using a detailed survey measure of uncertainty collected by the U.S. Census Bureau for approximately 25,000 manufacturing plants. We find three key results. First, investment is negatively associated with higher uncertainty. Second, uncertainty is also negatively related to employment growth and overall shipments growth, which highlights the damaging impact of uncertainty. Third, rental capital and temporary workers are positively correlated with uncertainty, demonstrating that businesses switch from less flexible to more flexible inputs under uncertainty.
2.RAZOR‐THIN MASS ELECTIONS WITH HIGH TURNOUT
David K. Levine, Cesar Martinelli
We argue that traditional voting models fail to fully explain the frequency of very close mass elections with high turnout. Instead, we model elections as a competition between incentive schemes to mobilize voters. We elucidate conditions under which parties might prefer close elections, as the potential to be pivotal motivates voters instead of exclusively costly incentives as in nonclose elections. We show that, under those conditions, better voter targeting results in tighter races and increased turnout. Furthermore, the smaller party often has a strong incentive to commit to strategies that ensure a close election.
3.THE IMPACT OF A LARGE DEPRECIATION ON THE COST OF LIVING OF RICH AND POOR CONSUMERS
Anatoli Colicev, Joris Hoste, Jozef Konings
Using retailer scanner data, we investigate how a sharp and abrupt depreciation of the exchange rate affects consumers' cost of living. We find that the marginal cost of imported goods increased, whereas their retail markups decreased compared to domestic products. There was also a surge in the entry and exit of both foreign and local product varieties post-depreciation. Wealthier consumers, who spend more on imports, are hit harder by higher marginal costs but benefit from reduced markups and increased product diversity, unlike their less affluent counterparts.
4.MIDDLEMEN IN SEARCH EQUILIBRIUM WITH INTENSIVE AND EXTENSIVE MARGINS
Grace Xun Gong, Randall Wright
We study endogenous intermediation activity, the implied transaction pattern—direct trade, indirect trade, or both—and implications for efficiency. Related papers have agents exchanging indivisible goods or assets, capturing only extensive margins (trade frequency). To capture intensive margins, we incorporate divisibility representing quantity or quality. We characterize equilibrium, show how it depends on bargaining powers and costs, and how intensive margins matter—for example, middlemen with high bargaining power may charge more but offer higher quantity/quality, thus improving welfare. A tax-subsidy policy is designed to achieve efficiency. A monetary version lets us compare money and middlemen and further discuss policy.
5.SPOUSAL LABOR SUPPLY, CAREGIVING, AND THE VALUE OF DISABILITY INSURANCE
Siha Lee
This article evaluates the insurance value of the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program among married households when wives face a trade-off between market hours and spousal care following their husbands' disability. Event study analyses show that wives' labor supply responses to their husbands' disability are small, and instead, a considerable amount of time is spent in spousal care. Using a dynamic structural model, I find that incorporating time loss due to spousal care increases the insurance value of SSDI relative to its costs. Finally, budget-neutral policy reforms that subsidize the cost of care can improve social welfare.
6.TRADE SHOCKS AND HIGHER‐ORDER EARNINGS RISK IN LOCAL LABOR MARKETS
Tomás R. Martinez, Ursula Mello
This article investigates the relationship between international trade and asymmetrical labor income risk. Using the case study of Brazil, we inspect how an increase in import penetration following the China shock impacted the distribution of idiosyncratic earnings changes across the country's local labor markets. We find that an increase in import penetration leads to a more dispersed and negatively skewed distribution. These effects can be explained by an increase in the volatility of hours worked following job and industry transitions, particularly from involuntary job separations.
7.FRICTIONAL SORTING: THE IMPACTS OF DUAL CONSTRAINTS ON MOBILITY AND HOUSING SUPPLY IN CHINA
Wenquan Liang, Ran Song, Christopher Timmins
Using an equilibrium sorting model and microdata from China, we evaluate the impacts of dual constraints on mobility and housing supply on workers’ sorting behavior, quantifying the welfare and distributional consequences. Counterfactual simulations show that lowering migration costs associated with institutional restrictions and migrant-specific amenities would increase welfare and reduce inequality by moving workers from inland to coastal regions in China. These impacts depend on the housing supply elasticity in coastal regions. Similarly, the impacts of relaxing housing supply restrictions depend on mobility constraints. Results highlight the policy complementarities between reducing the two kinds of frictions.
8.CORPORATE EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Mirela S. Miescu, Haroon Mumtaz
Are corporate earnings (CE) announcements important for economic activity? We address this question using a novel identification method that combines the valuable information from CE announcements with the heteroscedasticity of shocks experienced on these particular days. Our results demonstrate that CE announcements have a significant impact on the macroeconomy, exhibiting dynamics similar to traditional financial disruptions. We establish that CE announcements' shocks can be classified as financial shocks, highlighting their critical role in the financial system.
9.ASSET‐MARKET SENTIMENTS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS
Xuewen Liu, Pengfei Wang, Sichuang Xu
We present a tractable model that accommodates asset-market sentiment in a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) setting, allowing us to quantitatively evaluate sentiment-driven macroeconomic fluctuations. In our model, changes in households' perceived uncertainty about housing prices lead to self-fulfilling fluctuations in housing prices, which then impact investment and output through entrepreneurs' collateral constraints. Household sentiment shocks hence are transmitted and propagated to the macroeconomy, generating boom–bust cycles. Uncertainty, housing prices, and the real economy are linked. Quantitatively, the sentiment shock in the form of risk–panic is a crucial driver of business cycle fluctuations despite the presence of various competing shocks.
10.FIGHTING COLLUSION: AN IMPLEMENTATION THEORY APPROACH
Helmuts Āzacis, Péter Vida
A competition authority (CA) has an objective, which specifies what output profile firms need to produce as a function of production costs. These costs change over time and are only known by the firms. The objective is repeatedly implementable if the firms cannot collude and deceive the CA in equilibrium. We identify necessary and sufficient conditions for repeated implementation when firms can only announce prices and quantities. We use these conditions to study when the competitive output is implementable. We extend the analysis to the case when the firms can also supply hard evidence.
11.TORT LIABILITY AND UNAWARENESS
Surajeet Chakravarty, David Kelsey, Joshua C. Teitelbaum
We explore the implications of unawareness for tort law. We study cases where injurers and victims initially are unaware that some acts can yield harmful consequences, or that some acts or harmful consequences are even possible, but later become aware. We model unawareness by Reverse Bayesianism. We compare the two basic liability rules of Anglo-American tort law, negligence and strict liability, and argue that negligence has an important advantage over strict liability in a world with unawareness—negligence, through the stipulation of due care standards, spreads awareness about the updated probability of harm.
12.HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY
Sami Alpanda, Melissa Hyunji Song, Sarah Zubairy
We examine how the effects of government spending shocks depend on the balance sheet position of households. Employing U.S. household survey data, we find a large, positive consumption response for households with mortgage debt, smaller response for renters, and an insignificant response for outright homeowners, in response to a positive government spending shock. We consider a model with three types of households and show that it can successfully account for these findings. Liquidity constraints and wealth effects play a crucial role in shock propagation. Our findings suggest the importance of household mortgage debt position in the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy.
13.SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE IN INCOMPLETE‐INFORMATION BARGAINING: THEORY AND WIDESPREAD EVIDENCE FROM THE FIELD
Daniel Keniston, Bradley J. Larsen, Shengwu Li, J.J. Prescott, Bernardo S. Silveira, Chuan Yu
This article documents a robust pattern from diverse sequential bargaining settings: agents favor offers that split the difference between the previous two offers. Our empirical settings include used cars, insurance claims, home sale, trade tariffs, a TV game show, eBay, and auto-rickshaws. These even-split offers are more likely to be accepted, less likely to spur exit by the opponent, and more likely to be followed by subsequent split-the-difference offers if bargaining continues. We propose several theoretical frameworks to explain this behavior, including an inference argument under which split-the-difference offers can be viewed as an equal split of the potential surplus.
14.A MODEL OF GROSS CAPITAL FLOWS: RISK SHARING AND FINANCIAL FRICTIONS
Hyunju Lee
This article builds a two-country model of gross capital flows where agents share tradable output risk using two bonds, subject to stochastic collateral constraints. Equilibrium portfolios are short in domestic bonds and long in foreign bonds because the endogenous movements of the real exchange rate provide a hedge against domestic output shocks. Under negative domestic shocks, these external positions transfer wealth from home to abroad. During the Great Recession, the model shows that such wealth transfer from the United States mitigated the consumption drop abroad. Quantitatively, financial frictions account for about half of the collapse in U.S. gross flows in 2008.
15.SOVEREIGN UNCERTAINTY
Edgar Silgado-Gómez
This article investigates the impact and transmission of uncertainty regarding the future path of government finances on economic activity. Employing a data-rich approach, I introduce a novel proxy that captures uncertainty surrounding public finances, which I refer to as sovereign uncertainty. In an application to Spain, sovereign uncertainty shocks persistently dampen the economy in the medium run, whereas macro-financial uncertainty shocks originating in the private sector induce a negative short-lived response in real activity. In addition, a New Keynesian model rationalizes the empirical results, emphasizing the role of financial frictions and monetary policy decisions in transmitting the effects of sovereign uncertainty shocks.
16.ADD‐ON PRICING OVER REGIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES: EVIDENCE FROM EXTENDED WARRANTIES
Branko Bošković, Sacha Kapoor, Agnieszka Markiewicz, Barry Scholnick
Add ons are features or services that can enhance the functionality or quality of base goods. They are pervasive. Yet we know little about the behavior of add-on prices over the business cycle. We use 10 years of data from a nationwide Canadian retailer to investigate the local cyclicality of extended warranty prices, a classic add on. We find base prices are acyclical. Warranty prices are procyclical because local stores use warranties to make demand for durable goods less price-elastic. We show add ons amplify responses to national business cycles and study the implications for inflation rate bias.
