双语外刊
素材来源：FT
美国大选的第二天会发生什么？
What will happen the day after the US election?
历史上最紧张的总统竞选之一可能不会在晚上结束，随后可能会出现多重危机。
Late on election night four years ago, Donald Trump saw the so-called “red mirage” and pounced. His vote count was still ahead of Joe Biden in several swing states. Around 2.30am he appeared before White House cameras to declare victory. Any ballots counted after then would be fraudulent, Trump said.
四年前大选之夜的深夜，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)看到了所谓的“红色海市蜃楼”，并扑了上去。在几个摇摆州，他的得票数仍然领先于乔•拜登(Joe Biden)。凌晨两点半左右，他出现在白宫的摄像机前宣布胜利。特朗普说，在此之后计算的任何选票都是伪造的。
His aim was to exploit the fact that far more Democrats than Republicans had voted by mail, which meant the “blue shift” would take time to show up. It was another three days before Pennsylvania completed its tally and Biden was declared the winner.
他的目的是利用更多民主党比共和党通过邮寄投票的事实，这意味着“蓝色转变”需要时间才能显现。宾夕法尼亚完成计票并宣布拜登获胜还需另外三天。
So began Trump’s “stolen election” crusade that erupted two months and more than 60 failed lawsuits later in the January 6 storming of Capitol Hill. The crusade is still going. Trump’s 2024 campaign is based explicitly on the claim that he was cheated of the presidency four years ago. Should we brace ourselves for another contested election — or worse?
特朗普的“被盗选举”运动始于两个月前，之后进行了60多次失败的诉讼，最终在1月6日冲击国会山(Capitol Hill)。这场运动仍在继续。特朗普的2024年竞选明确基于他四年前被剥夺总统职位的主张。我们是否应该为另一场有争议的选举——甚至更糟的情况做好准备？
History does not repeat itself, as Mark Twain quipped; but it often rhymes. According to constitutional lawyers, this election is likely to yield one of two “day after” crises. The first possibility, if Kamala Harris is pronounced winner, would trigger a legal and information war to stop her victory from being certified. Only an improbable Harris victory of at least five of the seven swing states might pre-empt that.
正如马克•吐温(Mark Twain)所说，历史不会重演，但常常会押韵。根据宪法律师的说法，这次选举可能会引发两种“次日”危机。第一种可能性是，如果卡玛拉•哈里斯(Kamala Harris)被宣布为获胜者，将引发一场法律和信息战，以阻止她的胜利被认证。只有在七个摇摆州中至少五个中卡玛拉•哈里斯的胜利，才可能预防这种情况发生。
The other scenario, in the event of a Trump victory, would begin on January 21, the day after he was sworn in. Constitutional experts are far more worried about what Trump 2.0 would do with his renewed grip on power than on his ability to overturn a Harris win.
另一种情况是，如果特朗普获胜，将从他宣誓就职的第二天1月21日开始。宪法专家更担心特朗普2.0在重新掌握权力后会做出什么，而不是他有能力推翻哈里斯的胜利。
“If Harris wins even by a small margin, there is very unlikely to be a repeat of January 6,” says Rosa Brooks of Georgetown Law Center. “This time Trump will not be president, the certification process is much stronger and Biden won’t tolerate violence.”
“如果哈里斯即使以微弱优势获胜，发生1月6日的事件的可能性非常小，”乔治城大学法学中心的罗莎•布鲁克斯(Rosa Brooks)说道。“这一次特朗普将不再是总统，认证程序更加严格，拜登也不会容忍暴力。”
Yet there would still be real danger in a narrow Harris win. In contrast to Biden’s 2020 victory, which had been telegraphed in poll averages for months, Trump and Harris are within decimal points of each other in most critical states. Biden took 6mn more votes than Trump and won the electoral college by a margin of 306-232. Even so, it still took nine days for the Arizona result to be declared and 16 days in Georgia. And Biden’s clean victory did nothing to stop Republican election denialism from taking hold.
然而，即使哈里斯险胜，仍然存在真正的危险。与拜登在2020年的胜利形成鲜明对比，拜登的胜利在民意调查中已经几个月来被预示，特朗普和哈里斯在大多数关键州的得票率相差不到百分之一。拜登比特朗普多得了600万张选票，并以306-232的优势赢得了选举团。即便如此，亚利桑那州的结果仍然花了九天才宣布，佐治亚州则花了16天。而拜登的干净胜利并没有阻止共和党对选举的否认主义蔓延。
With such thin margins, this year’s counting could take longer and be far more fraught. Any gap of less than 0.5 per cent will trigger automatic recounts in several swing states, which could take days or even weeks. Aided by Trump-adjacent conservative groups, such as True the Vote and the Election Integrity Network, the Republican National Committee has already filed more than 100 lawsuits challenging ballot procedures and the eligibility of voter rolls. At this point four years ago, no cases had been filed.
由于利润微薄，今年的计票可能需要更长时间，也更加艰难。在几个摇摆州中，任何少于0.5%的差距都将引发自动重新计票，这可能需要数天甚至数周。在特朗普附近的保守团体的支持下，如True the Vote和选举诚信网络(Election Integrity Network)等，共和党全国委员会(Republican National Committee)已经提起了100多起诉讼，挑战选票程序和选民名册的资格。四年前的这个时候，还没有任何案件被提起诉讼。
“Most of these suits are frivolous and won’t get anywhere,” says Ian Bassin, head of Protect Democracy, a not-for-profit group that monitors election malfeasance. “But they show that Trump’s legal game is far better organised this time.”
“大多数这些诉讼都是无聊的，不会有任何结果，”保护民主(Protect Democracy)的负责人伊恩•巴辛(Ian Bassin)说道。“但它们表明特朗普这次的法律游戏组织得更好。”
But America’s electoral machinery is also more robust. Two years ago, Congress passed a law that makes it harder for legislatures to submit alternative slates of electors to vie with their state’s popular result. “It is really hard to see how Republican legislatures could pull that off,” says Bassin.
但美国的选举机制也更为健全。两年前，国会通过了一项法律，使立法机构更难提交替代选举人名单，以与其州的普选结果竞争。"很难想象共和党立法机构如何能够成功实现这一目标，" 巴辛说。
A graver fear is the public order effect from an avalanche of disinformation — AI-generated deepfake videos of ballot stuffing that could bring out private militias, for example, or bomb hoaxes that close polling stations.
更严重的担忧是来自大量虚假信息的公共秩序影响——例如，人工智能生成的深度伪造视频显示选票篡改可能会引发私人武装力量，或者炸弹恐吓导致投票站关闭。
This time, Conservative networks such as Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News, are so far steering clear of recycling 2020-style fraud rumours. Fox was ordered to pay $787.5mn in damages to Dominion Voting Systems last year for airing baseless claims that its machines were involved in electoral fraud.
这一次，像鲁珀特•默多克(Rupert Murdoch)的福克斯新闻(Fox News)这样的保守派网络迄今为止避免了重提2020年风波式欺诈传言。去年，福克斯因播放毫无根据的言论，声称Dominion投票系统公司的机器参与了选举舞弊，被判赔偿7.875亿美元给Dominion。
Most of the disinformation comes from what is now X, Elon Musk’s social media platform. The world’s richest man is also Trump’s most powerful new weapon. Unlike conventional media publishers, Musk’s X has near total immunity from whatever fake claims, however dangerous, are spread on his platform. Musk, who has more than 200mn followers, has been manically reposting stories about Democrats importing hordes of illegal migrants to vote for Harris on Tuesday. There is no basis to that claim.
大部分虚假信息来自埃隆•马斯克(Elon Musk)的社交媒体平台X。这位世界上最富有的人也是特朗普最强大的新武器。与传统媒体发行商不同，马斯克的X几乎完全免疫于其平台上传播的任何虚假主张，无论其有多么危险。拥有超过2亿粉丝的马斯克一直在疯狂地转发有关民主党人在周二引进大批非法移民投票给哈里斯的报道。这种说法没有根据。
“Musk talks about millions of illegal voters but they can’t even provide evidence for dozens,” says Barton Gellman, senior adviser at the Brennan Center for Justice. “He is going flat-out to promote the lie that this election will be rigged.”
“马斯克谈论数百万非法选民，但他们甚至无法提供几十个证据，”布伦南司法中心(Brennan Center for Justice)的高级顾问巴顿•盖尔曼(Barton Gellman)说。“他正在全力推动这场选举将被操纵的谎言。”
So far this year Musk has posted on immigration and voter fraud 1,300 times and garnered about 10bn views, according to a Bloomberg study. Since early September, he has posted on that topic five times a day. Both Musk and Trump this week endorsed allegations that two counties in Pennsylvania were adding illegal voters to their rolls and turning legal applicants away. Each claim is being investigated by Al Schmidt, Pennsylvania’s secretary of state, the state’s chief election official, who is a Republican. “Sharing social posts filled with half-truths or even outright lies is harmful to our representative democracy,” said Schmidt.
根据彭博社的一项研究，今年到目前为止，马斯克已经就移民和选民欺诈问题发布了1300次信息，获得了约100亿次浏览量。自9月初以来，他每天都会就这一话题发帖五次。本周，马斯克和特朗普都认可了宾夕法尼亚州两个县将非法选民加入名册并将合法申请者拒之门外的指控。宾夕法尼亚州州务卿阿尔•施密特(Al Schmidt)是该州的首席选举官员，他是共和党人，目前正在对每项指控进行调查。施密特说：“分享充满半真半假甚至彻头彻尾谎言的社交帖子对我们的代议制民主是有害的。”
Musk, who last year was accused of instructing X’s employees to boost the algorithm to promote his posts, has also created the Orwellian-named “election integrity community” on X, which asks users to report “potential instances of voter fraud and irregularities”.
马斯克去年被指控指示X公司员工操纵算法以推广他的帖子，他还在X上创建了一个以奥威尔式命名的“选举诚信社区”，要求用户举报“潜在的选民欺诈和违规行为”。
It is almost impossible for monitoring groups to keep up with the velocity of X’s falsehoods, let alone correct them. Were Harris to win, the share of America rejecting her legitimacy would likely dwarf what Biden has experienced.
监测组织几乎不可能跟上X的谎言速度，更不用说纠正它们了。如果哈里斯获胜，拒绝她合法性的美国人比拜登经历的可能要多得多。
“It is hard to exaggerate Musk’s role in poisoning trust,” says a Washington-based election lawyer. “If this election crashes, the black box will be Musk’s algorithm.” Unless X’s algorithm is subpoenaed in court, or it is leaked, its settings will remain secret.
“很难夸大马斯克在破坏信任方面的作用，”一位驻华盛顿的选举律师说道。“如果这次选举失败，黑匣子将是马斯克的算法。”除非X的算法在法庭上被传唤，或者被泄露，否则其设置将保持秘密。
And what if Trump wins? There is no parallel Democratic narrative of Trumpian vote rigging. He could lose the popular vote and win the electoral college, as happened in 2016 when he beat Hillary Clinton. Were his win to arise from a Supreme Court ruling, along the lines of the court’s decision to halt Florida’s vote count in 2000, liberal America’s backlash would be of far greater magnitude now. Then, Democratic contender Al Gore quickly conceded to George W Bush. Pressure on Harris not to fold would be intense.
如果特朗普赢了会怎样？没有民主党关于特朗普操纵选票的类似说法。他可能会输掉普选，但赢得选举人团，就像2016年击败希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)时那样。如果他的胜利源自最高法院(Supreme Court)的裁决，类似于2000年法院决定停止佛罗里达的计票，那么自由派美国的反弹将会更加剧烈。当时，民主党竞争者阿尔•戈尔(Al Gore)迅速承认了小布什的胜利。对哈里斯不要屈服的压力将会非常巨大。
The same would apply if the electoral college is tied, or a contested state’s verdict, were thrown to the House of Representatives. Under the constitution, the House would pick the winner on the basis of one vote per state, which would virtually guarantee Trump’s victory. All this would be within the rules.
如果选举团出现平局，或者有争议的州的裁决被提交给众议院，情况也将如此。根据宪法，众议院将根据每个州一票的基础选择获胜者，这几乎可以保证特朗普的胜利。所有这些都将在规则范围内。
It is what Trump threatens on “day one” of his presidency that keeps his political foes and their lawyers up at night.
特朗普在总统任期的“第一天”威胁的内容让他的政治对手和他们的律师们晚上睡不好觉。
“WHEN I WIN, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long-term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again,” Trump said in a post on his own social media platform last week.
“当我赢得胜利时，那些作弊的人将受到法律的最严厉起诉，其中将包括长期监禁，以确保这种对正义的亵渎不再发生，”特朗普在上周在自己的社交媒体平台上发帖说。
Those seen as having betrayed him, such as Liz Cheney, the former Republican lawmaker who broke with Trump after the January 6 assault, or Mark Milley, former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, who blocked Trump’s attempts to use the military as a political tool, would likely be at most risk. He often calls Milley a traitor. Others he often names include “the Biden crime family”, former speaker Nancy Pelosi and Harris.
那些被视为背叛他的人，如1月6日袭击后与特朗普决裂的前共和党议员利兹•切尼(Liz Cheney)，或阻止特朗普将军队用作政治工具的前参谋长联席会议主席马克•米利(Mark Milley)，可能面临最大的风险。他经常称米利为叛徒。他经常提到的其他人包括“拜登犯罪家族”、前议长南希•佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)和哈里斯。
Trump’s “day one” vows also include mass pardon for the “patriots” who were jailed for storming Capitol Hill in 2021, firing Jack Smith, the special counsel who, among other cases, is leading the investigation into Trump’s attempted 2020 election overthrow, and ordering the US Department of Justice to drop all cases against him. If you take Trump at his word, the DoJ would then pivot to his enemies. Several legal defence funds have already been created to help those targeted by Trump.
特朗普的“第一天”誓言还包括对因2021年冲击国会山而被监禁的“爱国者”进行大赦，解雇了杰克•史密斯(Jack Smith)，这位特别顾问正在领导对特朗普企图推翻2020年选举的调查，命令美国司法部(US Department of Justice)撤销针对他的所有案件。如果你相信特朗普的话，那么司法部将转向他的敌人。已经成立了几个法律辩护基金来帮助那些被特朗普针对的人。
It is hard to know which threats he would carry out. In 2016, he threatened to lock up Clinton but in practice did nothing about it. “I don’t think Trump could simply throw people in jail,” says Georgetown’s Brooks. “But he could bury them in legal bills from criminal investigations and tax audits and generally make their lives hell.”
很难确定他会实施哪些威胁。2016年，他曾威胁要关押克林顿，但实际上并未采取任何行动。乔治城大学的布鲁克斯表示：“我认为特朗普不可能简单地把人投进监狱。但他可以通过刑事调查和税务审计让他们背负巨额法律费用，总体上让他们的生活变得糟糕。”
He has also promised on his first day to invoke the 1807 Insurrection Act, which would let him put troops on American streets. Trump’s impulses to issue such orders last time were often stymied by senior appointees, like his former chief of staff, John Kelly, and public servants at the Pentagon and DoJ. The kinds of people he would select for his second term would be likelier to amplify his instincts.
特朗普还承诺在上任第一天就启用1807年的起义法案，允许他在美国街头部署军队。特朗普上次下达这类命令时，经常受到像他的前幕僚长约翰•凯利(John Kelly)以及五角大楼和司法部的公务员等高级任命官员的阻挠。他在第二个任期中可能会选择那些更有可能放大他的本能的人。
“Trump has learned that he cannot trust establishment Republicans to carry out his whims if they are wildly outside the norm,” says the Brennan Center’s Gellman. “He won’t be hiring those types again.”
“特朗普已经意识到，如果他的想法过于超出常规，他不能信任共和党的主流派系来执行他的心血。”布伦南中心(Brennan Center)的盖尔曼说。“他不会再雇佣那种类型的人了。”
Largely because of Trump’s judicial appointments, this Supreme Court would be far less of a bulwark against presidential lawlessness than any previous court. In a historic ruling in June, it voted 6-3 to scrap almost any limit on executive authority, saying that the president has criminal immunity from almost any “official acts” they take in office. Trump’s legal team argued this could even include killing political opponents.
很大程度上是因为特朗普的司法任命，这个最高法院将远不如以前任何一个法院那样成为反对总统无法无天的堡垒。在6月份的一项历史性裁决中，它以6比3的投票结果废除了对行政权力的几乎任何限制，称总统对他们上任后的几乎任何“官方行为”都享有刑事豁免权。特朗普的法律团队辩称，这甚至可能包括杀害政治对手。
How a punchdrunk US system would cope with that spectre is hard to forecast. The irony is that an unrestrained Trump would only be happening because he had been elected in a free and fair election. “Trump has made clear he plans to try — again — to overturn a free and fair election if he loses, but I feel confident that once again he will fail at that,” says Bassin. “What I’m far less confident in is the ability of our constitutional order to survive an actual Trump win. He would have far fewer guardrails this time.”
我们很难预测，醉醺醺的美国体制将如何应对这一幽灵。具有讽刺意味的是，不受约束的特朗普之所以会出现，只是因为他是在自由公正的选举中当选的。巴辛说：“特朗普已经明确表示，如果他落选，他计划再次尝试推翻自由公正的选举，但我相信他将再次失败。我对我们的宪法秩序在特朗普获胜后的生存能力信心不足。这一次，他将面临更少的限制。”
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