American Economic Review 2024年 10月刊 目录与摘要

刊发卷期：Vol. 114, Issue 10

刊发时间：October 2024

期刊等级：ABS 4*

出版厂商：American Economic Association

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目录

1. The Social Costs of Keystone Species Collapse: Evidence from the Decline of Vultures in India

Eyal Frank and Anant Sudarshan

2. Public Discourse and Socially Responsible Market Behavior

Björn Bartling, Vanessa Valero, Roberto A. Weber, and Lan Yao

3. Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts

Rava Azeredo da Silveira, Yeji Sung, and Michael Woodford

4. Monitoring in Small Firms: Experimental Evidence from Kenyan Public Transit

Erin M. Kelley, Gregory Lane, and David Schönholzer

5. Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Urban Transportation Policies with Equilibrium Sorting

Panle Jia Barwick, Shanjun Li, Andrew Waxman, Jing Wu, and Tianli Xia

6. Sufficient Statistics for Nonlinear Tax Systems with General Across-Income Heterogeneity

Antoine Ferey, Benjamin B. Lockwood, and Dmitry Taubinsky

7. Rising Top, Falling Bottom: Industries and Rising Wage Inequality

John Haltiwanger, Henry R. Hyatt, and James R. Spletzer

8. Dynamic Outside Options and Optimal Negotiation Strategies

Andrew McClellan

9. The Price of Power: Costs of Political Corruption in Indian Electricity

Meera Mahadevan

10. Women Left Behind: Gender Disparities in Utilization of Government Health Insurance in India

Pascaline Dupas and Radhika Jain

摘要

1. The Social Costs of Keystone Species Collapse: Evidence from the Decline of Vultures in India

Eyal Frank and Anant Sudarshan

Scientific evidence has documented we are undergoing a mass extinction of species, caused by human activity. However, allocating conservation resources is difficult due to scarce evidence on damages from losing individual species. This paper studies the collapse of vultures in India, triggered by the expiry of a patent on a painkiller. Our results suggest the functional extinction of vultures—efficient scavengers that removed carcasses from the environment—increased human mortality by over 4 percent because of a large negative shock to sanitation. We quantify damages at 69.4 billion per year. These results suggest high returns to conserving keystone species such as vultures.

2. Public Discourse and Socially Responsible Market Behavior

Björn Bartling, Vanessa Valero, Roberto A. Weber, and Lan Yao

We investigate the causal impact of public discourse on socially responsible market behavior. Across three laboratory experiments, having market participants engage in public discourse generally increases market social responsibility. These positive impacts are robust to variation in several characteristics of the discourse. We provide evidence that discourse strengthens beliefs that others support socially responsible exchange. However, relaxing requirements to engage in discourse sharply reduces its effectiveness. Our findings suggest that campaigns encouraging discussion of appropriate market behavior can have sizable impacts on addressing inefficiencies due to market failures but that policies encouraging broad public engagement may be important.

3. Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts

Rava Azeredo da Silveira, Yeji Sung, and Michael Woodford

We propose a model of optimal decision-making subject to a memory constraint in the spirit of models of rational inattention. Our theory differs from that of Sims (2003) in not assuming costless memory of past cognitive states. The model implies that both forecasts and actions will exhibit idiosyncratic random variation; that average beliefs will exhibit a bias that fluctuates forever; and that more recent news will be given disproportionate weight in forecasts. The model provides a simple explanation for the overreaction to news observed in the laboratory by Afrouzi et al. (2023).

4. Monitoring in Small Firms: Experimental Evidence from Kenyan Public Transit

Erin M. Kelley, Gregory Lane, and David Schönholzer

Small firms struggle to grow beyond a few employees. We introduce monitoring devices into commuter minibuses in Kenya and randomize which minibus owners have access to the data using a novel mobile app. We find that treated vehicle owners modify the terms of the contract to induce higher effort and lower risk taking from their drivers. This reduces firm costs and increases firm profitability. There is suggestive evidence that some firms expand. These results suggest that small firms may be able to utilize monitoring technologies to overcome problems of moral hazard and enhance their profitability.

5. Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Urban Transportation Policies with Equilibrium Sorting

Panle Jia Barwick, Shanjun Li, Andrew Waxman, Jing Wu, and Tianli Xia

We estimate an equilibrium sorting model of housing location and commuting mode choice with endogenous traffic congestion to evaluate urban transportation policies. Leveraging fine-scale data from travel diaries and housing transactions identifying residents' home and work locations, we recover rich preference heterogeneity over both travel mode and residential location decisions. While different policies produce the same congestion reduction, their impacts on social welfare differ drastically. In addition, sorting undermines the congestion reduction under driving restrictions and subway expansion but strengthens it under congestion pricing. The combination of congestion pricing and subway expansion delivers the greatest congestion relief and efficiency gains.

6. Sufficient Statistics for Nonlinear Tax Systems with General Across-Income Heterogeneity

Antoine Ferey, Benjamin B. Lockwood, and Dmitry Taubinsky

This paper provides empirically implementable sufficient statistics formulas for optimal nonlinear tax systems in the presence of across-income heterogeneity in preferences, inheritances, income-shifting capabilities, and other sources. We characterize optimal smooth tax systems on income and savings (or other commodities), as well as simpler tax systems. We use familiar elasticity concepts and a novel sufficient statistic for heterogeneity correlated with earnings ability: the difference between across-income variation in savings and the causal effect of income on savings. We apply these formulas to the United States and find that the optimal savings tax is mostly positive and progressive.

7. Rising Top, Falling Bottom: Industries and Rising Wage Inequality

John Haltiwanger, Henry R. Hyatt, and James R. Spletzer

Most of the rise in overall earnings inequality from 1996 to 2018 is accounted for by rising between-industry dispersion. The contribution of industries is right-skewed with the top 10 percent of four-digit NAICS industries dominating. The top 10 percent are clustered in high-paying high-tech and low-paying retail sectors. In the top industries, high-wage workers are increasingly sorted to high-wage industries with rising industry premia. In the bottom industries, low-wage workers are increasingly sorted into low-wage industries, with rising employment and falling industry wage premia.

8. Dynamic Outside Options and Optimal Negotiation Strategies

Andrew McClellan

We study the design of negotiation strategies when a principal and agent must decide how to split a pie while the agent's outside option changes over time. The principal's optimal strategy under commitment demonstrates a new, but intuitive, set of negotiation dynamics. When the agent is tempted to leave, the principal gradually promises a larger share (decreasing demands) and more time to explore the outside option (decreasing pressure), illustrating a complementarity between these two tools. Although the principal's expected utility is decreasing in the outside option, his expected utility and demands are increasing in the outside option's drift and volatility.

9. The Price of Power: Costs of Political Corruption in Indian Electricity

Meera Mahadevan

Politicians may target public goods to benefit their constituents, at the expense of others. I study corruption in the context of Indian electricity and estimate the welfare consequences. Using new administrative billing data and close-election regression discontinuities, I show that billed electricity consumption is lower for constituencies of the winning party by almost 40 percent, while actual consumption, measured by nighttime lights, is higher. I document the covert way in which politicians subsidize constituents by manipulating bills. These actions have substantial welfare implications, with an efficiency loss of US$0.9 billion, leading to unreliable electricity supply and significant negative consequences for development.

10. Women Left Behind: Gender Disparities in Utilization of Government Health Insurance in India

Pascaline Dupas and Radhika Jain

We document large gender disparities within a government program that entitles 46 million poor individuals to free hospital care. We show that care is not free in practice and higher costs are associated with larger disparities. Lowering care costs increases female utilization but does not reduce gender disparities because marginal beneficiaries are as likely to be male as inframarginals. Long-term exposure to local female leaders reduces disparities by addressing factors lowering female care. In the presence of gender bias, subsidizing social services may fail to address gender inequalities without actions that specifically target females.