黔南民族师范学院 a.数学与统计学院;b.贵州省高等学校复杂系统与智能优化重点实验室摘要：为研究SEIQRDP传播模型的状态，通过引入隔离控制策略，构建SEIQRDP_G传播模型；通过引入疫苗控制策略，构建四种不同修正SEIQRDP传播模型；采用基本再生数、决定系数和中位数绝对误差作为评价指标，模型在长春市的真实疫情数据进行实证分析。实验结果表明，SEIQRDP_G传播模型最贴合实际的疫情数据；SEIQRDP_Y_1和SEIQRDP_Y2_2的基本再生数最少；SEIQRDP_Y2_1与SEIQRDP传播模型的决定系数最少。关键词: 传染病；SEIQRDP传播模型；疫苗控制；隔离控制；修正SEIQRDP传播模型基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目（12361102）; 贵州省自然科学基金资助项目（黔教合KY字[2019]202）;贵州省自然科学基金资助项目(黔教合KY字[2019]067); 贵州省黔南州科技计划（2019XK04ST）;贵州省黔南州科技计划（2020XK03ST）; 黔南民族师范学院高层次人才项目（qnsyrc202204）;黔南民族师范学院教育质量提升工程项目（2021xjg029）;黔南民族师范学院大学生创新创业训练计划项目（S202210670024）; 河南省高等学校重点科研项目(23B110018); 贵州省教育厅2023年度普通本科高校科学研究项目（黔教技[2022]377号）; 贵州省科技计划项目（贵黔科合基础-ZK[2022]一般549）![]()
Construction and Analysis of a Modified SEIQRDP Propagation ModelYANG
Zhongbao1,2，Liu Zeshan1，Pan Chuoyan1，Zhang Dalin1 a. School of Mathematics and Statistics; b.Key Laboratory of Complex Systems and
Intelligent Optimization of Guizhou Province, Qiannan Normal University for NationalitiesAbstract : The SEIQRDP propagation model has seven types of
states: susceptible state, non susceptible state, exposed state, confirmed
state, isolated state, cured state, and dead state. By introducing isolation
control strategies, it was constructed a SEIQRDP_G transmission model, the
number of susceptible populations that infected individuals come into contact
with will decrease per unit time, protecting the population of susceptible
individuals,which can better than a comprehensive open strategy. By introducing
vaccine control strategies, four different modified SEIQRDP transmission models
were constructed to improve the immune capacity of susceptible populations and
reduce mortality rates. The model use the basic reproduction number, and the
decision coefficient and median absolute error as evaluation indicators, the
real epidemic data of the model in Changchun City were empirically analyzed.
The experimental results indicate that the SEIQRDP_G transmission model is most
suitable for practical epidemic data; the SEIQRDP_ Y_ 1 and the SEIQRDP_ Y2_ 2
propagation model have the lowest basic regeneration number; the determination
coefficients of the SEIQRDP_Y2_1 and SEIQRDP propagation models are the least.
Through the introduction of control strategies, the transmission mechanism of
the epidemic was further characterized.Keywords: infectious diseases;
SEIQRDP transmission model; vaccines control; isolation control; modified
SEIQRDP propagation model作者介绍:
第一作者：杨忠保（1988-），男，贵州从江人，硕士，讲师，主要研究方向复杂网络及建模。
杨忠保,刘泽山,潘春燕,等.修正SEIQRDP传播模型的构建与分析[DB/OL]2024-12-30].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/37.1402.n.20231016.1444.005.html.![]()
