美国经济为何一团糟 | 经济学人社论

1

经济学人社论 | 经济衰退叫人惊慌

美国经济为何一团糟

暂莫惊慌

Don’t blame American investors for feeling seasick. The past few weeks have brought a swirl of contradictory economic news: stock prices sank and then rebounded; jobs figures were weaker than predicted but retail sales were much stronger. Chatter about an immediate emergency interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve built up and then died down. After the exuberance of the first half of 2024, economy-watchers are anxiously poring over each new data release. The utterances of Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, at the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers on August 23rd, after we published this, will be examined even more closely than usual.

过去几周，美国经济形势起伏不定，美国投资者感到一阵眩晕其实情有可原。股市一度大跌，随后反弹；就业数据低于预测水平，零售额却远远超出预期。市场对于美联储或将紧急降息的预期不断升温，随后又逐渐减弱。2024年上半年经济发展势头迅猛，经济观察者如今紧张地研究着每次新发布的数据。本文发布后，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）将于8月23日在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表讲话，此番言论必将受到比往常更密切的关注。

source: https://www.yicai.com/news/102246020.html

What is going on? Economic data can often be volatile around turning-points, and several oddities are obscuring the picture. Take a step back, though, and America’s economy seems poised for a gradual slowdown, not a crash.

究竟发生了什么？美国处于转折时刻，经济数据本就会上下波动，种种反常现象更是让形势显得扑朔迷离。不过退一步看，美国经济似乎将呈放缓之势，而非直接崩盘。

The most marked area of weakness so far has been the labour market. Unemployment jumped to 4.3% in July, a big enough leap to invoke the Sahm Rule, an indicator based on the rise in joblessness that has identified every American recession since 1960 (but which has a patchier record in other countries). Another rule, which uses both unemployment and job-vacancy figures, implies that a recession might have begun as early as March. Markets nervously await the next jobs release on September 6th.

当前，表现最为疲软的无疑是劳动力市场。7月，美国失业率跃升至4.3%，增幅大到足以触发萨姆规则（Sahm Rule）。自1960年以来，这项基于失业率上升的指标成功预测了美国的每一次经济衰退（但对于其他国家经济衰退的预测准确率则参差不齐）。另一种基于失业率和职位空缺数据的指标则表明，经济衰退可能早在三月就已降临。各方市场翘首以盼将于9月6日发布的下一轮就业数据。

注释： “The Sahm Rule” 是一个由经济学家Claudia Sahm提出的经济指标，用于预测经济衰退。该规则定义为：当三个月平均失业率相对于过去12个月最低点上升至少0.5个百分点时，则视为可能即将发生经济衰退。

Dig into the data, though, and it looks as if this weakness may be overstated. Much of the rise in unemployment in the latest figures came from temporary lay-offs, which tend to be volatile. America’s recent surge in immigration might also be influencing the data; new migrants are often not in work until a little after their initial arrival. Some of the rise in unemployment, therefore, may be short-term.

若深挖这些数据，就会发现市场疲软似乎言过其实。最新数据中失业率的上升大部分源于临时裁员，因而并不稳定。美国近期的移民潮也可能对数据产生影响：移民初来乍到，短期之内没有工作。因此，失业率的部分增长可能是短期现象。

History may also be muddling things. Investors may be so jittery because they have over-learned the lessons of the previous two big recessions: during the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the covid crash. Both of those were faster and deeper than a typical downswing, amplified as they were by a fragile banking system and a pandemic, respectively. They may not be the best guide to what to expect today.

历史可能也让人困惑不已。投资者如此焦虑不安的原因可能是他们从前两次大规模经济衰退——2007-2009年全球金融危机和新冠疫情中过度吸取了教训。这两次危机的恶化速度与影响深度之所以超过了一般的经济下行，是因为脆弱的银行体系与全球疫情分别在背后推波助澜。因此，它们可能并非预测当下形势的最佳参考。

Conventional slowdowns are often stop-start and gradual. A better guide than 2008 or 2020 may be the more subdued environment of the 1990s and early 2000s. Another more recent precedent might be mid-2019, when the Fed smoothed over a growth hiccup by unwinding some previous interest-rate rises.

传统的经济放缓往往断断续续，逐步发生。相较2008年和2020年，20世纪90年代和21世纪初期更为和缓的情况可能更具借鉴意义。另一个较近的例子或是2019年中期，美联储通过撤销或降低前期几次加息，以平缓经济增长中的波动。

stop-start: not be smooth and easy

How, then, to describe the current state of the economy? It is certainly slowing, and likely to slow further. A peculiar feature of this cycle has been that tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy have pulled in opposite directions. Thus far, the tug-of-war has left the economy expanding at a rapid clip; GDP growth was 3.1% over the past year. But a pace that speedy cannot be sustained for ever: most estimates put America’s long-run potential growth rate at closer to 1.5-2% a year.

那么，如何描述当前的经济状况呢？毫无疑问，经济增长正在放缓，而且很可能会进一步放缓。本轮经济周期特点之一在于紧缩的货币政策和宽松的财政政策背道而驰。目前为止，这种拉锯战使得经济快速增长。去年，美国国内生产总值（GDP）增长率为3.1%。但是如此高的增速不可能永远保持下去：大部分估测表示，美国长期潜在增长率更接近每年1.5%-2%。

A good measure of the overall thrust of the latest economic data is the Atlanta Fed’s “nowcast” of GDP growth, which draws on a wide swathe of data. That has fallen over the past two weeks—but to a still healthy 2%. Conditions could yet deteriorate further if the lagged effect of high interest rates starts to bite. Some households are already feeling a squeeze: the share of credit-card bills left unpaid has risen to a 13-year high.

亚特兰大联储的GDP增长率“即时预测”模型基于海量数据，能很好衡量最新经济数据的整体趋势。在过去两周内，该指标虽然有所下降，但仍保持在较为合理的2%水平。如果高利率的滞后效应开始显现，情况可能会进一步恶化。一些家庭已经感受到压力：信用卡账单的未付比例已攀至13年来新高。

It should help, though, that the economy is far better situated today than in 2019 in one crucial respect: there is plenty of room for the Fed to ease. Investors expect interest rates to fall from their current range of 5.25-5.50% by more than two percentage points in the next year. Those cuts are already reflected in lower long-term bond yields. But interest rates could comfortably fall further and faster if worse news on the economy demanded it. By contrast, a fall of two percentage points in 2019 would have returned rates all the way to zero.

不过，当前经济形势在一个关键方面要比2019年好得多——有足够的空间让美联储采取宽松政策，这点应当有所帮助。投资者预计明年利率将从目前5.25%—5. 50%区间下降逾两个百分点。这些降息预期已在长期债券收益率的下降中反映出来。然而，若是经济面传来坏消息，那么美联储还能顺利以更快的速度进一步下调利率。相比之下， 在2019年，光是下降两个百分点就会让利率直接归零。

How much of the fuel left in the Fed’s tank will be needed? At Jackson Hole last year, Mr Powell signalled his determination to raise rates until inflation was back at its 2% target. Today inflation is nearly back to where it needs to be and the growth outlook is shakier. An interest-rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point in September seems almost certain.

美联储油箱里剩下的燃料还需要用上多少？去年在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上，鲍威尔下定决心要提高利率，直至通胀率回到2%的目标水平。如今，通胀几乎回归到了应有的水平，增长前景更加不稳定。9月份降息0.25个百分点几乎已是板上钉钉。

鲍威尔，苦思不解

But central bankers should beware of overreacting. Financial markets are still pricing in a one-in-three chance of a jumbo rate cut of half a percentage point. Unless further bad news arrives, such a sharp move could go too far. The Fed faces danger from two sides: if it cuts too much, it could risk another surge in inflation; if it cuts too little, growth could falter more. Mr Powell has made admirable progress fighting inflation so far. His reward is that he now faces a new enemy, even as the old one is not yet fully defeated.

但央行行长们应警惕过度反应。金融市场仍预测，利息大幅下降0.5个百分点的可能性达三分之一。除非出现更多的负面消息，否则这样的下降幅度可能过大。美联储面临两难局面：如果降息过多，可能会面临通胀再次飙升的风险；但如果降得太少，经济增长可能会更加疲软。迄今为止，鲍威尔在对抗通胀方面取得了傲人的进展。他的回报是：又有一个新的敌人矗立在面前，尽管旧的敌人还未被彻底击败。

翻译组：

Alfredo，小小少年，很多烦恼

Jessie，女，翻译界林黛玉，想被人叫大佬

Humi，在躺平、侧卧和睡梦中寻找诗和远方

校对组：

UU，保持低调

Collin，男，崇拜科比的一枚小翻译

Octavia，键盘手和古风爵士，逃离舒适圈，有只英短叫八爷

感想|观点

休息一下

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

01 2024年第二期翻译打卡营 

4位一笔，3位二笔

30天录播课程

既有中译英，也有英译中。

从翻译的流程策略，

英汉语言特点，方法，类型，

背景知识到细致的语言点，

我们都逐一讲解以及答疑，让同学们吃透翻译。

点击下图，即可了解翻译打卡营详情！

02 经济学人打卡营 

每周一到周六阅读经济学人

并在群里以及小鹅通内写分享

分享是文章的总结或者观点或者语音打卡

字数不少于100字，中英文都可以

群里每周免费分享最新外刊合集

点击下图，即可了解打卡营详情！

03 早起打卡营 

两年以来，小编已经带着25000多人早起打卡

早起倒逼自己早睡，戒掉夜宵，戒掉手机

让你成为更好的自己，创造早睡早起的奇迹！

早起是最简单的自律！

早起打卡营

欢迎你的加入！

点击下图，即可了解打卡营详情！