摘要
综合能源系统中源荷多重不确定性及相关性导致电压、温度和压力等系统运行状态存在越限风险，需要适用于综合能源系统的高效概率能流计算方法与风险评估理论。本文计及电热气多种能源耦合条件，考虑风光与多类型负荷的不确定性及相关性，提出基于多项式混沌展开的电-热-气综合能源系统概率能流计算方法，准确高效计算各系统状态变量的越限概率。为进一步评估并量化不确定性因素对越限风险的影响，基于协方差分析理论，提出计及源荷相关性的综合能源系统全局灵敏度分析方法，识别影响系统稳定运行的关键不确定性因素。仿真结果表明，所提方法具有与蒙特卡洛法相同的精度且显著缩短了计算时间，能够有效量化评估源荷多重不确定性造成的越限风险。
Over-limit risk assessment method of integrated
考虑源荷相关性的综合能源系统越限风险评估方法
Ying Wang, Xiaojun Wang, Yizhi Zhang, Yigang Zhang, Zekai Xu
1.School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044,P.R.China
收听作者1分钟语音介绍
Abstract
Keywords
Probabilistic energy flow; Polynomial chaos expansion; Correlation; Risk assessment; Analysis of covariance
Fig. 1 The process of over-limit risk assessment based on sensitivity analysis
Fig. 2 Topology diagram of the standard IES
Fig. 3 Probability density of voltage amplitude at power grid node 24
Fig. 4 Relative errors in the expectations for supply water temperature and pressure
Fig. 5 Voltage over-limit probability of power grid node
Fig. 6 Samples of random variables considering the correlation
Fig. 7 First-order sensitivity indexes of the voltage amplitude of node 24
Fig. 8 Sensitivity indexes corresponding to different heat load fluctuations
Fig. 9 Sensitivity indexes corresponding to different heat load correlations
本文引文信息
Wang Y, Wang XJ, Zhang YZ, et al. (2023) Over-limit risk assessment method of integrated energy system considering source-load correlation, Global Energy Interconnection, 6(6): 661-674
王英，王小君，张义志等 (2023) 考虑源荷相关性的综合能源系统越限风险评估方法. 全球能源互联网（英文）, 6(6): 661-674
Biographies
Ying Wang
is working toward his master’s degree at Beijing Jiaotong University.His research interests include modeling and optimization of integrated energy system.
Xiaojun Wang
received his Ph.D.degree at North China Electric Power University.His research interests include optimization of integrated energy system and control of power system.Currently he is working as Professor in Beijing Jiaotong University.
Yizhi Zhang
received Ph.D.degree at Beijing Jiaotong University.His research interests include modeling and optimization of integrated energy system.
Yigang Zhang
is working toward his master’s degree at Beijing Jiaotong University.His research interests include application of game theory in integrated energy systems.
Zekai Xu
is working toward his master’s degree at Beijing Jiaotong University.His research interests include regulation of flexible resources and optimization of integrated energy system.
编辑：王彦博
审核：王 伟
郑重声明
根据国家版权局相关规定，纸媒、网站、微博、微信公众号转载、摘编本微信作品，需包含本微信名称、二维码等关键信息，并在文首注明《全球能源互联网》原创。
个人请按本微信原文转发、分享。
分享优秀论文，帮小编点个 “在看” 哦
