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素材来源：FT
叮咚买菜摸出新模式 连续三季录盈利
After years of shopping around, Dingdong bags formula for profits
这家生鲜电商报告称，截至9月的三个月内，连续第三个季度实现盈利，目前利润率超越克罗格，并迫近沃尔玛。
It’s been a long trip down the shopping aisle for online grocer Dingdong (Caymen) Ltd. (DDL.US), which has rung up billions of yuan in losses since its founding in 2017. But after trying out a number of formulas, the company has finally found a recipe for sustainable profits, setting it apart from its many peers that are mostly losing money in China’s huge but extremely competitive grocery market.
对生鲜电商叮咚（开曼）有限公司(DDL.US)来说，这是一段漫长的旅程，自2017年成立以来，公司已亏损数十亿元。但在进行大量尝试后，公司终于找到了可以持续盈利的秘诀，使其从众多同行中脱颖而出，在中国庞大但竞争极其激烈的生鲜市场，几乎多数公司都在亏钱。
Dingdong logged its third consecutive quarterly profit in the three months to September, reporting 133.4 million yuan ($18.6 million) in net income for the period, according to its latest results released on Wednesday. The company has been consistently in the black this year since reporting a 12.3 million yuan profit in the first quarter. That grew to 67.1 million yuan in the second quarter, meaning the latest figure represents a doubling on a sequential basis.
根据周三发布的最新业绩，截至9月底的三个月内，叮咚买菜连续第三个季度实现盈利，当季净利润1.33亿元。自一季度报告盈利1,230万元以来，公司今年一直保持盈利。二季度盈利增长至6,710万元，这意味最新盈利环比增长了一倍。
Dingdong has done quite a bit of fiddling with its formula since its relatively recent launch just seven years ago. Like many of its peers, it became mesmerized with the huge size of China’s grocery market and initially tried to be a grocer for everyone, from the biggest mega-cities like Beijing and Shanghai to China’s many smaller cities.
叮咚买菜成立仅七年，却对业务模式进行了多次调整。和很多同行一样，叮咚买菜被中国庞大的生鲜杂货市场吸引，最初试图成为一家面向所有人的生鲜杂货商，不仅在北京、上海等特大城市市场，还有中小城市。
But it discovered those smaller cities were far more cost-sensitive than the larger ones. That put it at a disadvantage to rivals like PDD (PDD.US) and Meituan (3960.HK), which achieved significantly lower cost structures by outsourcing most of their grocery business to third parties. By comparison, Dingdong handles most functions itself, from warehousing to delivery, which provides more consistent quality and service levels but is also more costly.
但它发现，小城市对成本的敏感程度远高于大城市。使其在与拼多多(PDD.US)和美团(3960.HK)等对手的竞争中处于劣势，通过将大部分生鲜业务外包给第三方，拼多多和美团大幅降低了成本结构。相比之下，叮咚买菜从仓储到配送的大部分业务都自己处理，这提高了质量和服务水平的稳定性，但也增加了成本。
Dingdong discovered that customers in big cities like Shanghai and Nanjing are willing to pay such premiums for better service and product consistency, unlike folks in smaller towns who are more interested in rock-bottom prices. Accordingly, it began withdrawing from smaller markets a couple of years ago, and has focused on cities in the relatively affluent Yangtze River Delta region of Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces, as well as Shanghai, where it is based.
叮咚买菜发现，上海、南京等大城市的消费者愿意为了更稳定的服务和产品支付溢价，而小城市的消费者则更热衷于最低价格。因此，公司几年前开始退出小城市，将重点放在相对富裕的长三角地区，包括其总部所在地上海。
As it shifted focus, it has increased its store density in those relatively affluent areas to better serve its customers there. At the same time, it has tried to focus more on premium offerings, including its own private label products, which typically carry higher margins than standard groceries like vegetables and staples like rice and flour.
随着重心的转移，它在相对富裕的地区提高了门店密度，以便更好地服务那里的客户。与此同时，公司尝试将重心更多地放在高端产品上，包括自有品牌产品，它们的利润率普遍高于蔬菜等普通生鲜和米面等主食。
The success of that formula is showing up most clearly in Dingdong’s net margins, which have improved steadily from 0.2% in this year’s first quarter, to 1.2% in the second, to a relatively fat 2.0% in the latest reporting period. To put that in perspective, Dingdong’s latest margin outpaces the 1.37% for U.S. supermarket giant Kroger (KR.US) in its latest quarter, though it still trails the 2.66% for Walmart (WMT.US).
此模式的成功在叮咚买菜的净利润率上体现得最为明显，其净利润率从今年第一季度的0.2%，稳步提高到了第二季度的1.2%，最新报告期内更是达到了相对较高的2.0%。也就是说，叮咚买菜的最新利润率，超过了美国超市巨头克罗格(KR.US)最新季度的1.37%，但仍落后于沃尔玛(WMT.US)的2.66%。
Still, it’s not bad when you can play in the same leagues as two of the world’s largest supermarket operators. By comparison, most of Dingdong’s publicly traded Chinese rivals, including brick-and-mortar supermarket operators Sun Art (6808.HK) and Yonghui (610933.SH), are losing money and thus have negative net margins.
不过，能与全球最大的两家超市运营商相提并论就已经很不错了。相比之下，叮咚买菜的中国上市竞争对手中，包括实体超市运营商高鑫零售(6808.HK)和永辉超市(610933.SH)，大部分都在亏损，因此净利润率为负。
Shareholders celebrate
股东乐开花
Investors welcomed Dingdong’s fast-growing profits by bidding up its stock 13% the day the results were published. That gain was all the more impressive since most U.S.-traded Chinese stocks fell sharply that day on investor concerns about their prospects after the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president.
财报公布当天，投资者对叮咚买菜快速增长的利润表示欢迎，将其股价推高了13%。由于担心特朗普可能当选美国总统，当天大多数在美国上市的中国股票都大幅下挫，这个涨幅就更加了不起了。
The rally sent Dingdong’s American depositary shares (ADS) to a close of $4.45, their highest level in the last 20 months. Here, however, we should still note the stock is down about 80% from its IPO price of $23.50 in 2021 just before sentiment turned cold on such U.S.-listed Chinese companies. The stock currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18, ahead of the 13 for Kroger and not too far behind Meituan’s 22.
此次反弹使叮咚买菜的美国存托股票(ADS)收于4.45美元，是过去20个月以来的最高水平。不过，在这里，我们仍然应该注意到，该股较2021年23.50美元的IPO价格下跌了约80%，那时正处于市场对在美上市中国公司的情绪转冷前夕。该股目前的远期市盈率(P/E)为18倍，领先于克罗格的13倍，与美团的22倍相差也不大。
Significantly, analyst sentiment towards the company has rapidly improved since the start of the year. Six of nine analysts polled by Yahoo Finance now rate the company as a “buy” or “strong buy,” up from five at the start of the year. And more importantly, those analysts have upgraded their revenue forecasts for the company this year to 9.8% growth, or more than double the 4.3% growth they expected at the start of the year.
值得注意的是，自今年初以来，分析机构对该公司的看法迅速改善。在雅虎财经调查的9家分析机构中，有6家现在将该公司评为“买入”或“强烈买入”，多于年初的5家。更重要的是，这些分析机构已将公司今年的收入预测上调至增长9.8%，是年初预期增长4.3%的一倍多。
The company’s revenue rose far faster than either of those rates in the third quarter, jumping 27.2% to 6.54 billion yuan from 5.14 billion yuan a year earlier, according to the results. The company attributed the strong growth to people placing larger orders, and also an expansion of its network in the Yangtze Delta area. On its earnings call, it pointed out that 13 smaller markets in the Yangtze Delta area experienced year-on-year sales growth of more than 50% in the latest reporting period.
财报显示，公司三季度营收较上年同期的51.4亿元大涨27.2%至65.4亿元。公司将强劲增长归因于人们下单量增加，及其在长三角地区的网络扩大。在财报电话会议上，公司指出在最新报告期内，长三角地区13个较小市场的销售额同比增长超过50%。
The company didn’t provide very specific guidance on the final three months of the year, but said it is “anticipating considerable year-over-year growth for the fourth quarter and this year.”
公司并未对今年最后三个月的业绩提供具体指引，但表示“预计四季度和今年将实现可观的同比增长”。
A big chunk of Dingdong’s expenses come from the cost of the groceries it sells, which is relatively difficult to lower as a percentage of revenue. But it has more control over fulfillment costs, such as warehousing and delivery. As it honed its focus, it was able to lower those fulfillment costs to 21.4% of its revenue in the latest quarter from 23.2% a year earlier, which was a primary factor behind its ability to post such impressive margins and profit.
叮咚买菜的支出中，有很大一部分来自其所售杂货的成本，相对较难降低。但它对履约成本（如仓储和配送）有了更多的控制权。随着专注度的提高，叮咚买菜在最新季度，将履约成本降低至收入的21.4%，而去年同期为23.2%，这也是它能够实现如此可观的利润率和盈利能力的主要因素。
Growing analyst bullishness on the company probably reflects not only the fact that Dingdong has honed its formula to be more efficient, but also to the increasing cost-consciousness of Chinese consumers as the economy slows. Restaurants have felt the pinch of consumers eating out less, which is playing to the advantage of grocers like Dingdong that cater to cost-conscious people who eat at home.
分析机构对公司的乐观情绪，不仅反映叮咚买菜已练就提高效率的技巧，也反映随着经济放缓，中国消费者成本意识日益增强。餐饮业感受到了消费者减少外出就餐带来的压力，这为像叮咚买菜这样的平台带来了优势，它们满足了精打细算的消费者在家就餐的需求。
Dingdong is now solidly cash flow positive, which allowed it to build up its reserves of cash and short-term investments to 4.3 billion yuan at the end of September from 4.16 billion yuan a year earlier. There’s really nothing stopping the company from building on its recent momentum, as it looks quite well positioned with its current business formula and could even benefit from the increasing climate of consumer caution.
叮咚买菜目前现金流稳健，其现金和短期投资储备从去年同期的41.6亿元，增加到9月底的43亿元。事实上，没有什么能阻止叮咚买菜继续保持最近的势头，因为看起来目前的商业模式让它处于有利地位，甚至可能从消费者越来越谨慎的局面中受益。
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