期刊名称：American Economic Review
本期期卷：Vol. 114, No. 9
刊出日期：September 2024
目录
01 Arbitraging Covered Interest Rate Parity Deviations and Bank Lending
Lorena Keller
02 Revealing Choice Bracketing
Andrew Ellis and David J. Freeman
03 Valuing Long-Term Property Rights with Anticipated Political Regime Shifts
Zhiguo He, Maggie Hu, Zhenping Wang, and Vincent Yao
04 Age Set versus Kin: Culture and Financial Ties in East Africa
Jacob Moscona and Awa Ambra Seck
05 Investing in the Next Generation: The Long-Run Impacts of a Liquidity Shock
Patrick Agte, Arielle Bernhardt, Erica Field, Rohini Pande, and Natalia Rigol
06 Big Loans to Small Businesses: Predicting Winners and Losers in an Entrepreneurial Lending Experiment
Gharad Bryan, Dean Karlan, and Adam Osman
07 In-Kind Transfers as Insurance
Lucie Gadenne, Samuel Norris, Monica Singhal, and Sandip Sukhtankar
08 Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data
Peter Ganong, Fiona Greig, Pascal Noel, Daniel M. Sullivan, and Joseph Vavra
09 Experimentation in Networks
Simon Board and Moritz Meyer-ter-Vehn
10 Comparisons of Signals
Benjamin Brooks, Alexander Frankel, and Emir Kamenica
# 01 #
Title：
Arbitraging Covered Interest Rate Parity Deviations and Bank Lending
Author：
Lorena Keller
Abstract：
I propose and test a new channel through which covered interest rate parity (CIP) deviations can affect bank lending in emerging economies. I argue that when CIP deviations exist, banks attempt to arbitrage them. To do so, banks must borrow in a particular currency. When this currency is scarce, bank lending in the currency required to arbitrage decreases, while they use this currency in their arbitrage activities. I test this channel by exploiting differences in the abilities of Peruvian banks to arbitrage CIP deviations. I find evidence that supports the proposed channel.
# 02 #
Title：
Revealing Choice Bracketing
Author：
Andrew Ellis and David J. Freeman
Abstract：
Experiments suggest that people fail to take into account interdependencies between their choices—they do not broadly bracket. Researchers often instead assume people narrowly bracket, but existing designs do not test it. We design a novel experiment and revealed preference tests for how someone brackets their choices. In portfolio allocation under risk, social allocation, and induced-value shopping experiments, 40–43 percent of subjects are consistent with narrow bracketing, and 0–16 percent with broad bracketing. Adjusting for each model's predictive precision, 74 percent of subjects are best described by narrow bracketing, 13 percent by broad bracketing, and 6 percent by intermediate cases.
# 03 #
Title：
Valuing Long-Term Property Rights with Anticipated Political Regime Shifts
Author：
Zhiguo He, Maggie Hu, Zhenping Wang, and Vincent Yao
Abstract：
We identify exposure to political risk by exploiting a unique variation around land lease extension protection after 2047 in Hong Kong's housing market due to historical arrangements. Relative to properties that have been promised an extension protection, those with unprotected leases granted by the current government are sold at a discount of 8 percent; those with colonial leases suffer an additional discount of 8 percent. Incorporating estimated structural parameters that suggest an additional 20 percent ground rent after 2047, our model matches empirical discounts well across lease horizons. Discounts increase over time, particularly in areas with greater pessimism about the city's future.
# 04 #
Title：
Age Set versus Kin: Culture and Financial Ties in East Africa
Author：
Jacob Moscona and Awa Ambra Seck
Abstract：
We study how social organization shapes patterns of economic interaction and the effects of national policy, focusing on the distinction between age-based and kin-based groups in sub-Saharan Africa. Motivated by ethnographic accounts suggesting that this distinction affects redistribution, we analyze a cash transfer program in Kenya and find that in age-based societies there are consumption spillovers within the age cohort, but not the extended family, while in kin-based societies we find the opposite. Next, we document that social structure shapes the impact of policy by showing that Uganda's pension program had positive effects on child nutrition only in kin-based societies.
# 05 #
Title：
Investing in the Next Generation: The Long-Run Impacts of a Liquidity Shock
Author：
Patrick Agte, Arielle Bernhardt, Erica Field, Rohini Pande, and Natalia Rigol
Abstract：
Poor entrepreneurs must frequently choose between business investment and children's education. To examine this trade-off, we exploit experimental variation in short-run microenterprise growth among a sample of Indian households and track schooling and business out-comes over eleven years. Treated households, who experience higher initial microenterprise growth, are on average one-third more likely to send children to college. However, educational investment and schooling gains are concentrated among literate-parent households, whose enterprises eventually stagnate. In contrast, illiterate-parent households experience long-run business gains but declines in children's education. Our findings suggest that microenterprise growth has the potential to reduce relative intergenerational educational mobility.
# 06 #
Title：
Big Loans to Small Businesses: Predicting Winners and Losers in an Entrepreneurial Lending Experiment
Author：
Gharad Bryan, Dean Karlan, and Adam Osman
Abstract：
We experimentally study the impact of relatively large enterprise loans in Egypt. Larger loans generate small average impacts, but machine learning using psychometric data reveals "top performers" (those with the highest predicted treatment effects) substantially increase profits, while profits drop for poor performers. The large differences imply that lender credit allocation decisions matter for aggregate income, yet we find existing practice leads to substantial misallocation. We argue that some entrepreneurs are overoptimistic and squander the opportunities presented by larger loans by taking on too much risk, and show the promise of allocations based on entrepreneurial type relative to firm characteristics.
# 07 #
Title：
In-Kind Transfers as Insurance
Author：
Lucie Gadenne, Samuel Norris, Monica Singhal, and Sandip Sukhtankar
Abstract：
Households in developing countries often face variation in the prices of consumption goods. We develop a model demonstrating that in-kind transfers will provide insurance benefits against price risk if the covariance between the marginal utility of income and price is positive. Using calorie shortfalls as a proxy for marginal utility, we find that this condition holds for low-income Indian households. Expansions in India's flagship in-kind food transfer program not only increase caloric intake but also reduce caloric sensitivity to prices. Our results contribute to ongoing debates about the optimal form of social protection programs.
# 08 #
Title：
Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data
Author：
Peter Ganong, Fiona Greig, Pascal Noel, Daniel M. Sullivan, and Joseph Vavra
Abstract：
We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in US history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics—but not employment dynamics—during the pandemic. Second, benefit expansions allow us to study the MPC of normally low-liquidity households in a high-liquidity state. These households still have high MPCs. This suggests a role for permanent behavioral characteristics, rather than just current liquidity, in driving spending behavior. Third, the mechanisms driving our results imply that temporary benefit supplements are a promising countercyclical tool.
# 09 #
Title：
Experimentation in Networks
Author：
Simon Board and Moritz Meyer-ter-Vehn
Abstract：
We propose a model of strategic experimentation on social networks in which forward-looking agents learn from their own and neighbors' successes. In equilibrium, private discovery is followed by social diffusion. Social learning crowds out own experimentation, so total information decreases with network density; we determine density thresholds below which agents' asymptotic learning is perfect. By contrast, agent welfare is single peaked in network density and achieves a second-best benchmark level at intermediate levels that strike a balance between discovery and diffusion.
# 10 #
Title：
Comparisons of Signals
Author：
Benjamin Brooks, Alexander Frankel, and Emir Kamenica
Abstract：
A signal is a description of an information source that specifies both its correlation with the state and its correlation with other signals. Extending Blackwell (1953), we characterize when one signal is more valuable than another regardless of preferences and regardless of access to other signals. This comparison is equivalent to reveal-or-refine: every realization of the more valuable signal reveals the state or refines the realization of the less valuable signal. We also study other comparisons of signals, including sufficiency, martingale dominance, and Lehmann. Reveal-or-refine is also equivalent to making any of these comparisons robust to access to other signals.
END
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