期刊名称：Journal of Political Economy
本期期卷：Volume 132,Number 10
刊出日期：October 2024
目录
01 Technology Adoption and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Industrialization in France
Réka Juhász,Mara P. Squicciarini, andNico Voigtländer
02 Big G
Lydia Cox,Gernot J. Müller,Ernesto Pastén,Raphael Schoenle, andMichael Weber
03 Funding of Clinical Trials and Reported Drug Efficacy
Tamar Oostrom
04 Learning about the Long Run
Leland E. Farmer,Emi Nakamura, andJón Steinsson
05 Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Nonneutrality of Money
Hassan Afrouzi
06 Reputation Effects under Short Memories
Harry Pei
07 Prices and Policies in Opioid Markets
Casey B. Mulligan
08 Intergenerational Insurance
Francesco Lancia,Alessia Russo, andTim Worrall
# 01 #
Title：
Technology Adoption and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Industrialization in France
Author：
Réka Juhász,Mara P. Squicciarini, andNico Voigtländer
Abstract：
New technologies tend to be adopted slowly and—even after being adopted—take time to be reflected in higher aggregate productivity. One prominent explanation is that major technological breakthroughs create the need to reorganize production. We study a unique setting that allows us to examine this mechanism: the adoption of mechanized cotton spinning during the first Industrial Revolution in France. Using a novel hand-collected, plant-level dataset from French archival sources, we show that a process of “trial and error” in reorganizing production led to initially low and widely dispersed productivity across firms operating the new technology. In the subsequent decades, we observe high productivity growth as knowledge diffused through the economy and new entrants adopted improved methods of organizing production.
# 02 #
Title：
Big G
Author：
Lydia Cox,Gernot J. Müller,Ernesto Pastén,Raphael Schoenle, andMichael Weber
Abstract：
“Big G” typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. We confront this notion with five facts for the universe of federal purchases. First, they are volatile and account for the largest part of the short-run variation in total spending. Second, the origin of their variation is granular. Third, purchases are subject to procurement and bidding. Fourth, they are concentrated in long-term contracts. Fifth, their composition is biased toward sectors in which private sector prices are sticky. We develop a two-sector New Keynesian model consistent with these facts and find where the government spends is key for aggregate effects.
# 03 #
Title：
Funding of Clinical Trials and Reported Drug Efficacy
Author：
Tamar Oostrom
Abstract：
This paper estimates the effect of financial sponsorship of clinical trials on reported drug efficacy, leveraging the insight that the exact same pairs of drugs are often compared in different trials conducted by parties with different financial interests. I assemble new psychiatric trial data to estimate that a drug appears substantially more effective when the trial is sponsored by that drug’s manufacturer, compared with the same drug tested against the same combination of drugs but without sponsorship. This difference is not explained by observable characteristics, but publication bias is important. Preregistration may be effective in overcoming this bias.
# 04 #
Title：
Learning about the Long Run
Author：
Leland E. Farmer,Emi Nakamura, andJón Steinsson
Abstract：
Forecasts of professional forecasters are anomalous: they are biased, and forecast errors are autocorrelated and predictable by forecast revisions. We propose that these anomalies arise because professional forecasters do not know the model that generates the data. We show that Bayesian agents learning about hard-to-learn features of the world can generate all the prominent aggregate anomalies emphasized in the literature. We show this for professional forecasts of nominal interest rates and Congressional Budget Office forecasts of gross domestic product growth. Our learning model for interest rates can explain observed deviations from the expectations hypothesis of the term structure without relying on time variation in risk premia.
# 05 #
Title：
Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Nonneutrality of Money
Author：
Hassan Afrouzi
Abstract：
This paper studies how competition affects firms’ expectations in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with rational inattention and oligopolistic competition where firms acquire information about their competitors’ beliefs. In the model, firms with fewer competitors are less attentive to aggregate variables—a novel prediction supported by survey evidence. A calibrated version of the model matches the relationship between firms’ numbers of competitors and their uncertainty about aggregate inflation as a nontargeted moment. A quantitative exercise reveals that firms’ strategic inattention to aggregates significantly amplifies monetary nonneutrality and shifts output response disproportionately toward less competitive oligopolies by distorting relative prices.
# 06 #
Title：
Reputation Effects under Short Memories
Author：
Harry Pei
Abstract：
I analyze a reputation game between a patient player and a sequence of short-run players. Each short-run player observes the number of times that the patient player took each of his actions in the past K periods. When players have monotone supermodular payoffs, the patient player can approximately secure his commitment payoff in all equilibria regardless of K. I also show that the short-run players can approximately attain their highest feasible payoff in all equilibria if and only if K is lower than some cutoff. This is because a larger K weakens the short-run players’ incentives to punish the patient player.
# 07 #
Title：
Prices and Policies in Opioid Markets
Author：
Casey B. Mulligan
Abstract：
Opioid mortality increases have been linked to both lax and restrictive opioid prescription regulations. Modeling choice between prescription and illicitly manufactured opioid sources helps reconcile the apparently contradictory empirical findings. It also identifies groups responding opposite of the average and applies previous studies to new supply conditions. Organized around the two supply channels, a policy database is assembled that reveals distinct pricing phases during 1999–2021. Consistent with the model, during the later phases the relationship between the opioid fatality rate (measured from death certificates) and its composition changes sign, minors’ fatality rates trend opposite of adults’, and the black-white gap changes sign.
# 08 #
Title：
Intergenerational Insurance
Author：
Francesco Lancia,Alessia Russo, andTim Worrall
Abstract：
How should successive generations insure each other when the young can default on previously promised transfers to the old? This paper studies intergenerational insurance that maximizes the expected discounted utility of all generations subject to participation constraints for each generation. If complete insurance is unattainable, the optimal intergenerational insurance is history dependent even when the environment is stationary. The risk from a generational shock is spread into the future with periodic “resetting.” If we interpret intergenerational insurance in terms of debt, the fiscal reaction function is nonlinear and the risk premium on debt is lower than the risk premium with complete insurance.
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