Journal of Public Economics 2024年10月刊 目录与摘要

01 Effects of the expanded Child Tax Credit on employment outcomes

Elizabeth Ananat, Benjamin Glasner, Christal Hamilton, Zachary Parolin, Clemente Pignatti

02 The political economy of coastal development

Pierre Magontier, Albert Solé-Ollé, Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal

03 Spillover effects of specialized high schools

Christine Mulhern, Shelby McNeill, Fatih Unlu, Brian Phillips, ... Eric Grebing

04 Coordinated selection of collective action: Wealthy-interest bias and inequality

Luca Corazzini, Christopher S. Cotton, Enrico Longo, Tommaso Reggiani

05 The McMansion effect: Positional externalities in U.S. suburbs

Clément S. Bellet

06 The effects of physician vertical integration on referral patterns, patient welfare, and market dynamics

Christopher M. Whaley, Xiaoxi Zhao

07 Organizational capacity and profit shifting

Katarzyna Bilicka, Daniela Scur

08 Do bishops matter for politics? Evidence From Italy

Gianandrea Lanzara, Sara Lazzaroni, Paolo Masella, Mara P. Squicciarini

09 Optional (non-)filing and effective taxation

Tobias Hauck, Luisa Wallossek

10 Spillovers in fields of study: Siblings, cousins, and neighbors

Stanislav Avdeev, Nadine Ketel, Hessel Oosterbeek, Bas van der Klaauw

11 Norm-based feedback on household waste: Large-scale field experiments in two Swedish municipalities

Claes Ek, Magnus Söderberg

12 Later-life mortality and the repeal of federal prohibition

David S. Jacks, Krishna Pendakur, Hitoshi Shigeoka, Anthony Wray

13 Public pensions and retirement: Evidence from the Railroad Retirement Act

Matthew Pesner

14 School segregation in the presence of student sorting and cream-skimming: Evidence from a school voucher reform

Ana M. Gazmuri

15 Heard the news? Environmental policy and clean investments

Joëlle Noailly, Laura Nowzohour, Matthias van den Heuvel, Ireneu Pla

16 The safety net and job loss: How much insurance do public programs provide?

Chloe N. East, David Simon

17 Brains versus brawn: Ordinal rank effects in job training

Alexander J. Chesney, Scott E. Carrell

18 Rounded Up: Using round numbers to identify tax evasion

Robert Breunig, Nathan Deutscher, Steven Hamilton

19 Estimating intergenerational health transmission in Taiwan with administrative health records

Harrison Chang, Timothy J. Halliday, Ming-Jen Lin, Bhashkar Mazumder

20 No country for young people? The rise of anti-immigration politics in ageing societies

Valerio Dotti

21 How do parole boards respond to large, societal shocks? Evidence from the 9/11 terrorist attacks

Brendon McConnell, Kegon Teng Kok Tan, Mariyana Zapryanova

22 The division of parental leave: Empirical evidence and policy design

Thomas Høgholm Jørgensen, Jakob Egholt Søgaard

23 Sophistication about self-control

Deborah A. Cobb-Clark, Sarah C. Dahmann, Daniel A. Kamhöfer, Hannah

24 Softening the blow: Job retention schemes in the pandemic

Jolan Mohimont, Maite de Sola Perea, Marie-Denise Zachary

25 The intergenerational (Im)mobility of immigrants

Pascal Achard

Title：

Effects of the expanded Child Tax Credit on employment outcomes

Author：

Elizabeth Ananat, Benjamin Glasner, Christal Hamilton, Zachary Parolin, Clemente Pignatti

Abstract：

The temporary 2021 expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC) was intended to reduce child poverty during the COVID-19 pandemic. The expansion’s elimination of an existing phase-in with earnings, however, potentially disincentivized labor supply, raising concerns that it would reduce parent employment. We empirically test for employment effects using difference-in-differences analyses with Current Population Survey data. Across many specifications and multiple sub-groups, we find very small, inconsistently signed, statistically insignificant impacts of the 2021 CTC on parental labor force participation and employment.

Title：

The political economy of coastal development

Author：

Pierre Magontier, Albert Solé-Ollé, Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal

Abstract：

Coastal development has advantages, such as job creation, and drawbacks, such as the loss of environmental amenities, for both residents and non-residents. Local governments may prioritize their constituents’ interests, resulting in suboptimal coastal development. We investigate how political alignment among neighboring mayors facilitates intergovernmental cooperation in the development of coastal areas. We leverage causal effects by applying a close-elections Regression Discontinuity Design to the universe of buildings in Spain. Municipalities with party-aligned mayors develop 46% less land than politically isolated ones, and politically homogeneous coastal areas develop less than fragmented ones. The effect is more salient for land closest to shore or previously occupied by forests, in municipalities with a large share of protected land, and for relevant environmental markers, such as air and bathing water pollution. These results underscore the importance of cooperative political endeavors in managing development spillovers, with environmental considerations assuming a central role.

Title：

Spillover effects of specialized high schools

Author：

Christine Mulhern, Shelby McNeill, Fatih Unlu, Brian Phillips, ... Eric Grebing

Abstract：

Specialized high schools are an increasingly popular way to prepare young adults for postsecondary experiences and expand school choice. While much literature examines charter school spillover effects and the effects of specialized schools on the students who attend them, little is known about the spillover effects of specialized high schools on traditional public schools (TPS). Using an event study design, we show that one type of specialized high school, North Carolina’s Cooperative Innovative High Schools, initially attracted students who were higher achieving and more likely to be white than TPS students, but these specialized schools became more representative of the district population over time. On average, the opening of specialized schools had a mix of null and positive spillover effects on TPS student achievement. While there is some evidence of negative spillovers from the first schools that opened, the effects become more positive over time.

Title：

Coordinated selection of collective action: Wealthy-interest bias and inequality

Author：

Luca Corazzini, Christopher S. Cotton, Enrico Longo, Tommaso Reggiani

Abstract：

We extend a collective action problem to study policy and project selection by heterogeneous groups who prefer to work together on a joint initiative but may disagree on which initiative is best. Our framework, adapted from a model of multiple threshold public goods, presents groups with several mutually exclusive projects, any of which require sufficient support from the group to succeed. Individuals strictly prefer to contribute where and how much they believe others expect of them to ensure joint project success. Groups tend to coordinate on the public good preferred by the wealthiest member, demonstrating a wealthy-interest bias even without corruption, politics, and information asymmetries. At the same time, groups divide costs in highly progressive ways, with the wealthy voluntarily funding a disproportionate share, helping offset the inherent inequality from endowment and selection differences. We discuss applications for policy selection, charitable giving, and taxes.

Title：

The McMansion effect: Positional externalities in U.S. suburbs

Author：

Clément S. Bellet

Abstract：

This paper examines how the construction of very large homes — or “McMansions” — in U.S. suburbs affects homeowners’ satisfaction and housing behavior. Combining three decades of survey data with geolocated information on three million suburban houses, I find that homeowners exposed to newly constructed, large houses report lower satisfaction with their own homes, while their neighborhood satisfaction remains unaffected. This effect is contingent on the visual salience of McMansions, as indicated by their proximity to roads. Homeowners exposed to new-built McMansions are more likely to expand their own homes and take on more debt.

Title：

The effects of physician vertical integration on referral patterns, patient welfare, and market dynamics

Author：

Christopher M. Whaley, Xiaoxi Zhao

Abstract：

The growth of physician vertical integration raises concerns about distorted referral patterns, higher spending, and market foreclosure. Using 100% Medicare data, we combine reduced-form analysis with a discrete choice model to estimate the effects of physician vertical integration on patients’ provider choices and welfare for two common “downstream” surgical procedures. Physician–hospital integration results in an approximately 10% increase in referrals to higher-priced facilities instead of lower-priced providers. Our counterfactual analysis implies that if all primary care physicians become integrated, total Medicare spending will increase by $315 million.

Title：

Organizational capacity and profit shifting

Author：

Katarzyna Bilicka, Daniela Scur

Abstract：

Good organizational capacity drives productivity and potential taxable profits, but may also enable multinationals (MNEs) to more efficiently re-allocate profits across tax jurisdictions, lowering actual taxable profits. We show that MNE subsidiaries with better organizational capacity report significantly lower profits in high-tax countries. This pattern is not present in low-tax countries. Further, responsiveness to corporate tax rate changes in terms of profit reporting is driven by firms with good organizational capacity. We show our results are consistent with profit-shifting behavior and rule out key alternative channels.1

Title：

Do bishops matter for politics? Evidence From Italy

Author：

Gianandrea Lanzara, Sara Lazzaroni, Paolo Masella, Mara P. Squicciarini

Abstract：

This paper studies whether and how religious leaders affect politics. Focusing on Italian dioceses in the period from 1948 to 1992, we find that the identity of the bishop in office explains a significant amount of the variation in the vote share for the Christian Democracy party (DC). This result is robust to several exercises that use different samples and time windows. Zooming into the mechanism, we find that two characteristics of bishops matter: (i) his political culture, and (ii) his interaction with the population—the latter being measured using text-analysis techniques.

Title：

Optional (non-)filing and effective taxation

Author：

Tobias Hauck, Luisa Wallossek

Abstract：

Many countries have automatic wage tax withholding systems with tax non-filing options for some taxpayers. We show that this has sizable and potentially unintended implications for effective taxation because taxes are often over-withheld. Low-income taxpayers pay more taxes than they have to because they frequently do not file. Using German administrative tax data, we document that the average non-filer overpays € 119 in one year, equivalent to a 1.2 percentage point increase in the average tax rate. Non-filing acts as a form of “reverse evasion”: It weakens the effective tax progressivity by increasing tax rates at the bottom of the income distribution.

Title：

Spillovers in fields of study: Siblings, cousins, and neighbors

Author：

Stanislav Avdeev, Nadine Ketel, Hessel Oosterbeek, Bas van der Klaauw

Abstract：

We use admission lotteries for higher education studies in the Netherlands to investigate whether someone’s field of study influences the study choices of their younger peers. We find that younger siblings and cousins are strongly affected. Also younger neighbors are affected but to a smaller extent. These findings indicate that a substantial part of the correlations in study choices between family members can be attributed to spillover effects and are not due to shared environments. Our findings concur with those of recent studies based on admission thresholds, which find sibling spillovers on college or college-major choices. This indicates that the results from previous studies can be extrapolated to students away from admission thresholds, and from siblings to cousins and neighbors.

Title：

Norm-based feedback on household waste: Large-scale field experiments in two Swedish municipalities

Author：

Claes Ek, Magnus Söderberg

Abstract：

We conduct two large-scale randomized controlled trials to produce the first evidence that Home Energy Report-type norm feedback letters can be used to reduce household waste. We explore several feedback variants, including a novel short-run dynamic norm that emphasizes ongoing changes in waste behavior. Waste reductions are on the order of 7%–12% for all treatments, substantially larger than usually found in the energy or water domains. Effects are mostly driven by increased recycling of packaging and remain largely intact a year after the intervention ended. Feedback is highly cost-effective compared to alternative non-price waste policies. However, net social benefits depend on household preferences for receiving feedback, which we elicit in a valuation survey, and whether existing waste fees internalize the marginal social cost of waste.

Title：

Later-life mortality and the repeal of federal prohibition

Author：

David S. Jacks, Krishna Pendakur, Hitoshi Shigeoka, Anthony Wray

Abstract：

Despite a recent and dramatic re-evaluation of the health consequences of alcohol consumption, very little is known about the effects of in utero exposure to alcohol on long-run outcomes such as later-life mortality. Here, we investigate how state by year variation in alcohol control arising from the repeal of federal prohibition affects mortality for cohorts born in the 1930s. We find that individuals born in wet states experienced higher later-life mortality than individuals born in dry states, translating into a 3.3% increase in mortality rates between 1990 and 2004 for affected cohorts.

Title：

Public pensions and retirement: Evidence from the Railroad Retirement Act

Author：

Matthew Pesner

Abstract：

This paper estimates how public pensions affect retirement timing by examining the Railroad Retirement Act of 1937, which replaced private railroad pensions with a national program comparable in many ways to Social Security. Leveraging linked decennial census records between 1910–1940, the first part of the analysis compares male labor force nonparticipation in 1940 relative to 1930, between workers previously in railroad versus other industries with broad pension coverage, and by age. Higher benefits led to earlier retirement, largely driven by exit at age 65. The second part of my analysis also exploits the switch from flat to progressive benefits in average wages to estimate the elasticity of nonparticipation with respect to benefits for men aged 65-69. My central estimate of 0.55 indicates a large retirement response. Application of these estimates to Social Security expansions in the 1950s suggests rising benefits was the key driver of earlier retirement among the already-insured male population during this era.

Title：

School segregation in the presence of student sorting and cream-skimming: Evidence from a school voucher reform

Author：

Ana M. Gazmuri

Abstract：

This paper uses a reform to Chile’s school choice system to study student socioeconomic segregation with a focus on student demand and school selectivity. The reform increases the subsidies that schools receive for low socioeconomic status students. I exploit this shock to schools’ incentives to test for selection at admission based on students’ socioeconomic characteristics. Schools respond to the new voucher by decreasing the level of cream-skimming. I incorporate these admission restrictions in a demand model to estimate parents’ preferences for school and peer characteristics. I show that ignoring admission restrictions leads to underestimating poor parents’ preferences for school quality. Counterfactual simulations show that preferences of high-SES parents for high-SES peers are one of the main drivers behind segregation as opposed to schools’ selective behavior. This likely explains the unexpected increase in enrollment for schools that opted out of the reform and the ineffectiveness of the reform in reducing socioeconomic segregation across schools.

Title：

Heard the news? Environmental policy and clean investments

Author：

Joëlle Noailly, Laura Nowzohour, Matthias van den Heuvel, Ireneu Pla

Abstract：

We build the first news-based index of US environmental and climate policy and examine how it relates to clean investments. Extracting text from ten leading US newspapers over the last four decades, we use text-mining techniques to develop a granular news index of US environmental and climate policy (EnvP) over the 1981–2019 period. Furthermore, we develop a set of additional measures, namely an index of sentiment on environmental policy, as well as various topic-specific indexes. We validate our index by showing that it correctly captures trends and peaks in the evolution of US environmental and climate policy and that it has a meaningful association with clean investments, in line with environmental regulations supporting growing opportunities for clean markets. In firm-level estimations, we find that our index is associated with a greater probability of receiving venture capital (VC) funding for cleantech startups and reduced stock returns for high-emissions firms most exposed to environmental regulations. At the aggregate level, we find in VAR models that a shock in our news-based index of renewable energy policy is associated with an increase in the number of clean energy VC deals and in the assets under management of a benchmark clean energy exchange-traded fund.

Title：

The safety net and job loss: How much insurance do public programs provide?

Author：

Chloe N. East, David Simon

Abstract：

We comprehensively evaluate the role of the U.S. safety net in replacing displaced workers’ lost income and health insurance using the 1996–2013 Survey of Income and Program Participation. Cash and near-cash programs replace 32% of lost income on average over the two years following job loss and reduce the likelihood of experiencing poverty by 18 percentage points. 97% of transfer benefits paid in these two years come from Unemployment Insurance. Two years after job loss, the replacement rate is 28%, but this is largely driven by UI benefit extensions unique to the Great Recession. Public health insurance makes up for 17% of the loss in private insurance, but, even two years later, rates of uninsurance are higher than pre-job loss. Looking at heterogeneous effects, in general, the safety net is progressive, though we uncover important gaps in benefits for some disadvantaged groups.

Title：

Brains versus brawn: Ordinal rank effects in job training

Author：

Alexander J. Chesney, Scott E. Carrell

Abstract：

This paper analyzes ordinal rank across cognitive and physical ability within an initial job training program. Using a rich administrative dataset and conditional random assignment of trainees to peer groups, we test whether rank effects vary across contemporaneous training and long-term career outcomes. We find cognitive ordinal rank, measured by an individual’s score on the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT), has a meaningful impact on completing initial training into the U.S. Air Force (USAF). This ranking also affects occupational specialization for trainees that arrive without a preassigned occupation. We also show physical ordinal rank, measured by an individual’s initial fitness score, affects job training performance. Both sets of ranking effects impact behavioral misconduct outcomes and vary by gender. Finally, the interaction between cognitive and physical ordinal ranking has multiplicative effects on a limited set of outcomes.

Title：

Rounded Up: Using round numbers to identify tax evasion

Author：

Robert Breunig, Nathan Deutscher, Steven Hamilton

Abstract：

Australian taxpayers display a clear preference for round numbers for end-of-year tax refunds, bunching at positive and salient thresholds such as the tens, hundreds and thousands. Bunching appears to be driven by tax evasion. Data from audited returns shows that bunching is present in returns before audit, but does not persist post-audit. Tax preparers play an important role, being twice as likely to deliver positive round-number refunds as individuals who file their own tax returns. Preparers with greater propensity to bunch deliver larger refunds by lifting deductions and lowering reported income for return items where audits are costly. This highlights how bunching behaviors can help identify tax evasion, including tax preparers who facilitate it and the tax return items which are manipulated.

Title：

Estimating intergenerational health transmission in Taiwan with administrative health records

Author：

Harrison Chang, Timothy J. Halliday, Ming-Jen Lin, Bhashkar Mazumder

Abstract：

We use population-wide administrative health records from Taiwan to estimate intergenerational persistence in health, providing the first estimates for a middle-income country. We measure latent health by applying principal components analysis to a set of indicators for 13 broad ICD categories and quintiles of visits to a general practitioner. We find that the rank–rank slope in health between adult children and their parents is 0.22 which is broadly in line with results from other countries. Maternal transmission is stronger than paternal transmission and sons have higher persistence than daughters. Persistence is also higher at the upper tail of the parent health distribution. Persistence is lower when complete data on outpatient care is unavailable. Health transmission is almost entirely unrelated to household income levels in Taiwan. We also find that there are small geographic differences in absolute health mobility across townships and that these are modestly correlated with area-level income and doctor availability.

Title：

No country for young people? The rise of anti-immigration politics in ageing societies

Author：

Valerio Dotti

Abstract：

We investigate the effects of population ageing on immigration policies using a citizen-candidate model of elections. In each period, young people work and pay taxes while old people receive social security payments. Immigrants are all young, meaning they contribute significantly to financing the cost of public services and social security. Among natives, the elderly and the poor benefit the most from public spending. However, since these two types of voters do not internalise the positive fiscal effects of immigration, they have a common interest in supporting candidates who seek to curb immigration and increase the tax burden on high-income individuals. Population ageing increases the size and, in turn, the political power of such sociodemographic groups, resulting in more restrictive immigration policies, a larger public sector, higher tax rates, and lower societal well-being. Calibrating the model to UK data suggests that the magnitude of these effects is large. The implications of this model are shown to be consistent with the patterns observed in UK attitudinal data.

Title：

How do parole boards respond to large, societal shocks? Evidence from the 9/11 terrorist attacks

Author：

Brendon McConnell, Kegon Teng Kok Tan, Mariyana Zapryanova

Abstract：

We provide the first evidence of the impact of 9/11 on outcomes for Muslims in the US criminal justice system. We focus on parole outcomes of Black Muslim men in the state of Georgia, and find large post-9/11 declines in the likelihood of being granted parole and a subsequent 23% relative increase in prison time for Muslim inmates. These impacts persisted for several years after 9/11 and were larger for inmates with higher levels of recidivism risk. We argue that these effects reflect unwarranted disparities driven by the decision-making of parole board members post-9/11.

Title：

The division of parental leave: Empirical evidence and policy design

Author：

Thomas Høgholm Jørgensen, Jakob Egholt Søgaard

Abstract：

We study several key aspects of the design of parental leave systems. First, we estimate parents’ willingness to pay for parental leave using Danish administrative data on the division of leave from almost 190,000 births combined with sharp variation in economic incentives created by the parental leave benefit system. We find evidence of both strong behavioral responses with significant bunching at kink points and a willingness to pay for a gender-traditional allocation of leave, where fathers take little or no leave. Second, we provide a menu of counterfactual policy simulations showing substantial interaction effects between earmarked leave, replacement rates and the duration of leave benefits. Relevant for the implementation of a recent EU directive, a higher replacement rate significantly increases the behavioral response of fathers to earmarked leave. Finally, we discuss the welfare effects of different policies aimed at increasing the parental leave of fathers.

Title：

Sophistication about self-control

Author：

Deborah A. Cobb-Clark, Sarah C. Dahmann, Daniel A. Kamhöfer, Hannah

Abstract：

We use information on people’s ideal, predicted, and realized body weight to classify them as time-consistent versus naïve, and partially or fully sophisticated regarding their self-control limitations. Operationalizing this approach in population-representative data reveals that self-control problems are pervasive and that most people are at least partly aware of their limited self-control. Compared to naïfs, sophisticates have higher IQs, better educated parents, and are more likely to use potential commitment devices. Despite their self-control problems, sophisticated individuals make similar choices as time-consistent individuals when those choices involve immediate costs and later benefits. An increased awareness of one’s own self-control limitations may thus help in reducing their adverse consequences.

Title：

Softening the blow: Job retention schemes in the pandemic

Author：

Jolan Mohimont, Maite de Sola Perea, Marie-Denise Zachary

Abstract：

We evaluate the welfare effects of the temporary job retention schemes (JRS) implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in a DSGE model with incomplete insurance and heterogeneous agents calibrated to the euro area. JRS have large favorable welfare effects and benefit all households when they are well targeted at potentially viable jobs at risk of being lost. These gains are particularly strong for liquid-asset-poor households, especially for those that are also unemployed or on furlough. The job protection component of JRS explains almost all the welfare gains they deliver, while their high level of generosity plays a minor role and has ambiguous net aggregate welfare effects. We also discuss the conditions that make JRS valuable and show that they can cause a decrease in welfare when they subsidize too many safe jobs; when they are targeted at non-viable jobs that will inevitably be lost once schemes end; and when implemented in economies where labor market frictions are low.

Title：

The intergenerational (Im)mobility of immigrants

Author：

Pascal Achard

Abstract：

This paper studies the influence of pre-migration social background on the long-term economic assimilation of immigrants. I use unique French survey data to trace family histories over three generations, before and after migration. While many immigrants experience an occupational downgrading at migration, their children benefit from various characteristics associated with the high socio-economic status their family had in the origin country. As a result, characteristics of immigrant grandparents are highly predictive of their grandchildren’s educational attainment.

欢迎关注CnOpenData微信公众号

即可及时获知国内外最新论文信息

本文仅供学术交流，文章原本版权归原作者和原发刊所有。如有内容错误和优化意见，欢迎反馈和指导。

数据的顶端，就是学术的顶端！

官   网：www.cnopendata.com