拉美原油产量上升

此文章为英文原版内容，可使用微信的“全文翻译”功能转换为中文阅读，功能使用方法可参照文末示意图

Crude supply from Latin America is set to rise this year, raising questions about where the extra flows will go, given the multiple uncertainties that the markets are facing around tariffs, sanctions and maritime security.

The big drivers of this additional supply will be Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, which are together expected to deliver an extra 400,000 b/d of mainly light and medium sweet crudes to world markets this year, according to the latest IEA projections. Brazil is expected to produce 220,000 b/d more crude this year as several new floating production storage and offloading vessels come on line. These include two at the Buzios complex that will add 405,000 b/d of capacity, and another at the Mero field adding 180,000 b/d — both fields produce middle distillate-rich medium sweet grades popular with buyers in Europe.

Guyana, the most eye-catching oil development story of the past decade, produced just over 615,000 b/d last year, and output will increase again this year as the 250,000 b/d Yellowtail project ramps up. In Argentina, the oil sector is expected to benefit from the expansion of storage and loading facilities at the key port of Puerto Rosales, which will allow the docking of heavier Suezmax tankers and create scope for increased exports of light sweet Medanito from the Vaca Muerta shale formation.

The big question for these producers is how and where they can market these exports, given the myriad uncertainties being caused by geopolitics. Tighter US sanctions on Russian exports are lifting premiums for non-sanctioned crude, boosting interest in recent weeks for Brazilian and Guyanese grades.

But the White House's threatened trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico could also leave US refiners seeking replacements, while diverting Canadian and Mexican shipments elsewhere. Lower risks to shipping in the Red Sea could boost Mideast Gulf flows to Europe, increasing competition there, but this could open up sales opportunities in Asia-Pacific, as could tighter US sanctions restricting Iranian oil sales to China.

The upshot of all this is that some of these Latin American grades are likely to find increased interest from existing and some new customers. Brazil, Guyana and Argentinian sweet crudes do not offer a like-for-like substitute for mainly heavy sour Mexican and Canadian grades — Colombia or Ecuador could provide a closer match. But they could hold some appeal as a short-haul option for US refiners needing to rethink their crude buying — Guyana and Argentina, for example, already export some oil to the US west coast.

There could also be interest from new markets in Asia and west Africa — India's BPCL bought its first cargo of Medanito in December, while Nigeria's huge new Dangote refinery could be another outlet. The refinery is likely to face competition for domestic Nigerian grades from the country's newly renovated Port Harcourt and Warri refineries, and this month closed a tender that included Brazilian and Guyanese options for the first time.

Brazil and Guyana have already established robust exports to Europe — the region took two-thirds of Guyana's shipments last year — while Brazil is a big supplier to India and especially China. Guyana could also come into play as another "non-sanctioned" option for Chinese and Indian buyers scaling back Russian crude purchases because of US sanctions. China has not imported any Guyanese crude for several years, shiptracking data indicate, but India is starting to show interest, as indicated by state-owned IOC's tender earlier this month, which listed Guyana's Payara Gold, Unity Gold and Liza among the eligible grades.

▲ 来源：阿格斯中国原油日报 2025年2月5日版

阿格斯全球原油市场服务

阿格斯原油服务是您获取原油市场每日动态、价格和分析的必备工具，我们的服务涵盖上百种国际贸易原油品种。

凭借近50年的原油市场报告经验以及一套反映真实交易行为的作价方法，阿格斯原油服务可以快速帮助您独立且清晰地了解国际原油市场。订阅用户可以即时获取关键基准价格及指数，如WTI休斯顿、WTI米兰德、阿格斯含硫原油价格指数(ASCI™)、北海即期布伦特(North Sea Dated)、乌拉尔Urals、ESPO混合、图皮Tupi等，并借助精编中文版的阿格斯中国原油日报这个价格工具，掌握中国进口主流原油的市场信息，应对市场挑战。

长按识别二维码申请试阅

[新功能] 阿格斯全新推出Argus Crude Market Ticker (ACMT)，动态展示原油市场行情。阿格斯全球原油市场日报订阅用户可随时在电脑或手机端通过ACMT查看美国中部时间上午7点到下午4点WTI休斯顿和WTI米兰德原油现货市场的每小时出价和报价范围。