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Dubai, 3 February (Argus) — A key panel of Opec+ ministers today effectively gave its backing to the group's output policy, which would not see any production returned to market until at least April.
It has not, for now at least, heeded US President Donald Trump's call for the producer group to "bring down the cost of oil," something it could only do by raising output.
Opec+ members are scheduled to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts starting in April over an 18-month period — a decision taken in December. At the time the Opec secretariat said this was "to support market stability," an implicit nod to the uncertain demand picture and projections of a looming supply surplus in 2025.
There appears little chance of this being expedited by Trump's call, which he made within days of taking office in January. The ministerial panel today made no mention of a change to policy.
The JMMC statement following the meeting once again put a large emphasis on the importance of member conformity with production targets. It stressed the need for members that have exceeded their targets to fully deliver on their pledges to compensate for past overproduction.
The JMMC's remit is limited to making recommendations on policy, with actual policy decisions made at full meetings of the Opec+ group.
One important outcome of the panel today relates to the composition of the Opec+ secondary sources, which provide monthly estimates on member production levels. Consultancy Rystad Energy and the US' Energy Information Administration (EIA) were replaced by data analytics firms Kpler, OilX and ESAI, effective 1 February. The other secondary sources are Argus, consultancy Wood Mackenzie, S&P Global Platts, IHS Markit and Energy Intelligence.
The next JMMC meeting is scheduled for 5 April.
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