美对俄罗斯新一轮制裁推高全球油轮运价

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The latest US sanctions against Russia could create significant short-term disruption on the freight market as charterers and shipowners scramble to assess how to avoid falling foul.

Marine insurance is a key issue. Indian ports will not accept a vessel unless it is covered by an authorised marine insurer. The Indian Directorate General of Shipping recognises both main insurers of vessels carrying Russian crude, Ingrosstrakh and Alfastrakhovanie, which were sanctioned previously and were again included in this round of sanctions.

Recognition of Ingrosstrakh is valid until at least February 2029, but at the time of the announced sanctions Alfastrakhovanie’s approval was due to end on 20 February 2025. Both were sanctioned in previous rounds, but not removed from India’s authorised list. The Directorate General of Shipping later extended the approvals for these companies to February 2030. It also gave approval for Soglasie Insurance to operate, making it the fifth Russian insurer permitted to operate in India until 20 February 2026. Soglasie is owned by Mikhail Prokhorov's Onexim group. Prokhorov stood against Vladimir Putin in 2012’s Russian presidential election and is one of the few key Russian industry figures not sanctioned by the US and Europe.

Another issue is the alternatives available to sanctioned tankers. Charterers are now scrambling to secure the remaining unsanctioned ‘dark fleet’' tankers and the jump in competition has driven up freight rates.

One potential source of relief could be the return of mainstream tanker owners to the market. Under the G7-led price cap, tankers owned and operated by mainstream companies can carry Russian crude without fear of sanctions, providing documentation proves the cargo was bought at a fob price of less than $60/bl. Urals has been above the price cap for months now, keeping mainstream tankers out of the market, but these vessels could return if crude prices fall back below the cap.

There has been a surge in freight rates for various vessel classes since the latest US sanctions announcement. The measures announced on 10 January targeted 183 tankers, including 102 that transported Russian crude to China or India at least once in 2024. US restrictions have shortened the list of vessels available for shipping crude from Russia, as many ports will not accept SDN-listed tankers — forcing some already laden tankers to anchor. The bellwether VLCC crude tanker rate, Mideast Gulf to east Asia, had surged to $16.32/t by 14 January from $10.14/t six days earlier and is poised for further gains.

Sanctions are probably playing at least a part in this increase. Chinese refiners have turned to spot purchases of prompt February-loading Mideast Gulf crude since the sanctions announcement, pushing Mideast Gulf crude benchmarks to multi-year highs. Indian refiners could also turn to the Mideast Gulf as an alternative source of supply. The surge in crude tanker freight rates is being matched by clean tanker rates.

But rising freight rates reflect other factors, too. The Lunar New Year comes early in 2025 —the last week of January — and Chinese importers have been pushing to restock ahead of the festivities. And coinciding with the latest sanctions announcement, charterers released their initial February loading schedules — something that often pushes up freight costs. Some stevedoring companies in northern China have put restrictions on accepting the now-sanctioned vessels. 

Participants in the Russian freight market are trying to determine the impact on day-to-day exports. Several say freight rates will soar in the coming days as charterers try to secure unsanctioned vessels — particularly as paying the owners of ‘dark fleet’ tankers has become more difficult. But others say sanctioned tankers will continue to unload in India regardless, and that the overall impact on the supply-demand balance will be minimal in the longer term.

Russian producers Gazpromneft and Lukoil have units that transport Arctic grades into the Umba and Kola floating storage vessels, respectively, near Murmansk. The US Treasury has included the two companies that own these floating storage vessels in its latest sanctions list. The Umba is used to stockpile Gazpromneft’s grades, while the Kola is used for Lukoil’s Varandey Blend. If Gazpromneft and Lukoil do not find a way of using non-sanctioned vessels to export these Arctic grades, the amount of crude held in onshore tanks could soon fall significantly, because the crude can only be stored here for a maximum of seven days.

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