实现航空业净零排放：剑桥大学推进计划减少全球航空排放

University of Cambridge

Global aviation could be on a flight path to net zero if industry and governments reach just four goals by 2030, according to a new report from the University of Cambridge.

剑桥大学的一份新报告称，如果行业和政府到 2030 年仅实现四个目标，全球航空业就可能走上净零排放之路。

An ambitious five-year plan created by the Aviation Impact Accelerator (AIA), a project led by the University of Cambridge and hosted by the University’s Whittle Laboratory and the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL), sets out four Sustainable Aviation Goals over the next five years that could help the sector navigate to net zero emissions across the world by 2050. “Aviation stands at a pivotal moment, much like the automotive industry in the late 2000s,” said Professor Rob Miller, Director of the Whittle Laboratory. “Back then, discussions centred around biofuels as the replacement for petrol and diesel – until Tesla revolutionised the future with electric vehicles. Our five-year plan is designed to accelerate this decision point in aviation, setting it on a path to achieve net zero by 2050.” If the goals are not implemented immediately and achieved by 2030, the opportunity for transformation could slip away, leaving the world to face the escalating climate impacts of a rapidly growing aviation sector, which is projected to at least double its emissions by 2050.

航空影响加速器 (AIA) 制定了一项雄心勃勃的五年计划，该计划由剑桥大学牵头，由大学惠特尔实验室和剑桥可持续发展领导力研究所 (CISL) 主办，制定了四个可持续航空目标未来五年，这可能有助于该行业到 2050 年在全球范围内实现净零排放。“航空业正处于关键时刻，就像 2000 年代末的汽车行业一样，”惠特尔实验室主任 Rob Miller 教授说。 “当时，讨论集中在生物燃料作为汽油和柴油的替代品上——直到特斯拉用电动汽车彻底改变了未来。我们的五年计划旨在加速航空业的这一决策点，使其走上到 2050 年实现净零排放的道路。”如果不立即实施并在 2030 年之前实现这些目标，转型的机会可能会消失，让世界面临快速增长的航空业带来的不断升级的气候影响，预计到 2050 年，航空业的排放量至少会增加一倍。

Aviation is a major contributor to climate change, accounting for 2-3% of global CO₂ emissions and 4% once the non-CO₂ climate impacts are included. Despite ambitious pledges from governments and industry, the aviation sector remains significantly off course in its efforts to achieve net zero by 2050. The report, titled Five Years to Chart a New Future for Aviation, outlines four actionable steps that must be initiated immediately and completed within five years if the sector is to get itself on track for that goal. The report will be presented to industry leaders at Climate Week NYC as part of events hosted by the Sustainable Markets Initiative, founded by King Charles III.

航空业是气候变化的主要原因，占全球二氧化碳排放量的 2-3%，如果算上非二氧化碳气候影响则占 4%。尽管各国政府和业界做出了雄心勃勃的承诺，但航空业在到 2050 年实现净零排放的努力中仍明显偏离正轨。这份题为《五年规划航空新未来》的报告概述了必须立即启动并完成的四个可行步骤如果该行业要实现这一目标，五年之内。该报告将在纽约气候周上向行业领袖提交，作为由国王查尔斯三世创立的可持续市场倡议主办的活动的一部分。

The first goal is to remove the clouds (contrails) formed by aviation. Speeding up the deployment of a global contrail avoidance system could reduce aviation’s climate impact by up to 40%. This would involve the immediate creation of experiments at the scale of whole airspace regions to learn in real environments. For example, an aircraft changing altitude in regions of the atmosphere where there is potential to form clouds. Around one in 30 flights produces a persistent contrail, a region of cloud that can trap heat and increase the climate impact of aviation. The climate impact of contrails from planes is estimated by some researchers to be about the same as the aviation industry's total CO₂ emissions, though there is scientific debate surrounding this estimation.

第一个目标是消除航空形成的云（轨迹）。加快全球轨迹规避系统的部署可以将航空业对气候的影响减少高达 40%。这将涉及立即在整个空域区域范围内进行实验，以便在真实环境中学习。例如，飞机在可能形成云的大气区域改变高度。大约三分之一的航班会产生持续的尾迹，这是一个可以捕获热量并增加航空对气候影响的云区域。一些研究人员估计，飞机尾迹对气候的影响与航空业的二氧化碳排放总量大致相同，尽管围绕这一估计存在科学争议。

The second goal is to implement a new wave of policies aimed at unlocking system-wide efficiency gains across the existing aviation sector. This has the potential to halve fuel burn by 2050 by tapping into efficiency gains that individual companies can’t address.

第二个目标是实施新一波政策，旨在释放现有航空业全系统的效率收益。通过利用个别公司无法解决的效率提升，到 2050 年，这有可能将燃料消耗减少一半。

The third goal is to reform Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) policies to account for global biomass limits across all sectors while driving renewable electricity production. This would provide the market with the confidence needed to rapidly scale up SAF production and ensure its sustainability. The goal is to put in place the global policies required to minimise the wider impact of SAFs on climate and nature.

第三个目标是改革可持续航空燃料（SAF）政策，以解决所有部门的全球生物质限制，同时推动可再生电力生产。这将为市场提供快速扩大 SAF 生产并确保其可持续性所需的信心。目标是制定必要的全球政策，尽量减少 SAF 对气候和自然的更广泛影响。

The final goal is to launch several moonshot technology demonstration programmes designed to rapidly assess the viability and scalability of transformative technologies, bringing forward the timeline for their deployment.

最终目标是启动多项登月技术演示计划，旨在快速评估变革性技术的可行性和可扩展性，从而提前部署其部署时间表。

An example of this is long-haul hydrogen aircraft. The low weight of hydrogen fuel, even once the weight of the tanks is included, makes hydrogen advantageous for long-haul flight, and the introduction of hydrogen would remove CO₂ emissions from flight.

长途氢飞机就是一个例子。即使考虑到储罐的重量，氢燃料的重量也很轻，这使得氢气有利于长途飞行，并且氢气的引入将消除飞行中的二氧化碳排放。

The first post-coronation engagement for His Majesty The King was to convene a group of aviation industry CEOs, alongside senior Government representatives, to help work on the 2030 Goals. His Majesty visited the University of Cambridge in May 2023 and broke ground on a £58-million Whittle Laboratory facility while encouraging the acceleration of sustainable aviation. His Majesty also spoke at the opening reception for COP28 and “urged us to continue to raise our ambitions in driving change in the aviation sector,” said Miller.

国王陛下加冕后的首次活动是召集一批航空业首席执行官以及高级政府代表，帮助实现 2030 年目标。国王陛下于 2023 年 5 月访问了剑桥大学，耗资 5800 万英镑的惠特尔实验室设施破土动工，同时鼓励可持续航空的发展。米勒表示，国王陛下还在 COP28 的开幕招待会上发表讲话，并“敦促我们继续提高推动航空业变革的雄心”。

The AIA sits in the Whittle Laboratory, one of the world’s biggest turbomachinery labs conducting research into the rapid development of ultra-low emission aircraft and low carbon power generation. The AIA is a global initiative that brings together more than 100 experts from across the aviation industry to accelerate the sector's transition to net-zero emissions. Its goal is to develop interactive tools and models that assist stakeholders—governments, industry leaders, and the public—in understanding and exploring pathways to sustainable aviation. By focusing on technological innovation, policy development, and environmental impact, the AIA aims to speed up progress toward zero-emission flight.

AIA 位于惠特尔实验室，这是世界上最大的涡轮机械实验室之一，致力于超低排放飞机和低碳发电的快速发展研究。 AIA 是一项全球倡议，汇集了来自航空业的 100 多名专家，旨在加速该行业向净零排放的过渡。其目标是开发交互式工具和模型，帮助利益相关者（政府、行业领导者和公众）了解和探索可持续航空的途径。通过关注技术创新、政策制定和环境影响，AIA 旨在加快零排放飞行的进程。

Partners include Boeing, Rolls-Royce, the Royal Air Force, Stratos, Emirates, 4Air, Flexjet, the UK Department for Energy Security & Net Zero, the UK Department for Transport, Breakthrough Energy, the Sustainable Markets Initiative, MIT, the University of Melbourne, and University College London.

合作伙伴包括波音、劳斯莱斯、英国皇家空军、Stratos、阿联酋航空、4Air、Flexjet、英国能源安全与净零部、英国运输部、突破能源、可持续市场倡议、麻省理工学院、英国大学墨尔本和伦敦大学学院。

“The Aviation Impact Accelerator modelling has drawn on the best available evidence to show that there are major challenges to be navigated if we’re to achieve net zero flying at scale, but that it is possible,” said Eliot Whittington, Executive Director at Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership. “With focus and a step change in ambition from governments and business we can address the hurdles, unlock sustainable flying and in doing so build new industries and support wider economic change." 

剑桥大学执行董事艾略特·惠廷顿 (Eliot Whittington) 表示：“航空影响加速器模型利用了现有的最佳证据，表明如果我们要大规模实现净零飞行，还需要克服重大挑战，但这是可能的。”可持续发展领导力研究所。 “通过政府和企业的关注重点和雄心壮志的逐步转变，我们可以克服障碍，解锁可持续飞行，并以此建立新产业并支持更广泛的经济变革。”