Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition
Humanity may be no better prepared for the impacts of climate change today than in the 1970s. So says a new study led by Stanford University researchers that compared how sensitive societies are to extreme weather now versus 50 years ago. This research has yet to be peer-reviewed, and its conclusions run counter to what many climate policy experts have long assumed. If they are accurate, it means that additional wealth, technology and climate-savvy have not meaningfully enhanced our protection as the weather has become more hostile.
今天，人类对气候变化影响的准备可能并不比 20 世纪 70 年代更好。斯坦福大学研究人员领导的一项新研究如是说，该研究比较了现在和 50 年前社会对极端天气的敏感程度。这项研究尚未经过同行评审，其结论与许多气候政策专家长期以来的假设背道而驰。如果它们是准确的，那就意味着随着天气变得更加恶劣，额外的财富、技术和气候知识并没有有意义地增强我们的保护。
Earth’s atmosphere has warmed and contains more moisture as a result of fossil fuel burning. Europeans reeling from Storm Boris can testify to the failure of even wealthy countries to adapt to this reality says Chris Medland, a PhD candidate in climate change resilience at the University of Surrey. Eventually, everyone will feel this deficit. “Your home may not be in the path of the next storm but the infrastructure it relies on might be,” Medland says. Flood defences, power lines, rail networks – all of these things and more need to be built or upgraded to withstand mounting storms. Yet in the recently flooded UK, the companies that run utilities are not expressly obliged to ensure their networks remain resilient to climate change, Medland says. Nor is it clear who is ultimately responsible for keeping the lights on as the crisis intensifies.
由于化石燃料的燃烧，地球大气层变暖并含有更多水分。萨里大学气候变化适应力博士生克里斯·梅德兰表示，遭受鲍里斯风暴袭击的欧洲人可以证明，即使是富裕国家也无法适应这一现实。最终，每个人都会感受到这种赤字。 “你的家可能不会处于下一次风暴的路径上，但它所依赖的基础设施可能会出现，”梅德兰说。防洪堤、电力线、铁路网——所有这些以及更多的东西都需要建造或升级，以抵御不断加剧的风暴。然而，梅德兰表示，在最近遭受洪水袭击的英国，运营公用事业的公司并没有明确的义务确保其网络保持对气候变化的适应能力。随着危机的加剧，谁最终负责维持正常运转也不清楚。
Invaders must die?
侵略者必须灭亡？
If the accounts of biologists are anything to go by, the natural world is adapting to the effects of climate change far more radically than any human institution. “Faced with the degradation of their habitat, the species that will survive will be those that are able to adapt,” says Suzanne Bonamour, a postdoctoral researcher in ecology at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. Bonamour studies an endangered seabird, the crested cormorant, and its struggles to feed itself and its brood amid stormier seas. These birds can migrate to escape a winter squall, but only some do.
如果生物学家的说法可以作为依据的话，那么自然界对气候变化影响的适应程度远比任何人类机构都要彻底。 “面对栖息地的退化，能够生存的物种将是那些能够适应的物种，”挪威科技大学生态学博士后研究员苏珊·博纳莫尔说。博纳穆尔研究一种濒临灭绝的海鸟——凤头鸬鹚，以及它在波涛汹涌的大海中如何努力养活自己和幼崽。这些鸟可以迁徙来躲避冬季暴风雨，但只有一些鸟这样做。
Bonamour wonders whether adult birds might transmit this behaviour to their chicks, but she says that there is little that species can do to compensate for the catastrophe humans are engineering. When plants and animals seeking cooler climes settle on new shores, they usually get a hostile reception. Attempting to root out these migrants is generally a mistake according to Heather Kharouba, an ecologist at the University of Ottawa. “Stated plainly, the vast majority of intentionally or unintentionally introduced species are not a threat to native ecosystems,” she says.
博纳穆尔想知道成年鸟类是否会将这种行为遗传给它们的雏鸟，但她表示，物种几乎无法弥补人类造成的灾难。当寻求凉爽气候的植物和动物在新的海岸定居时，它们通常会受到敌意的接待。渥太华大学生态学家希瑟·卡鲁巴 (Heather Kharouba) 表示，试图根除这些移民通常是一个错误。 “坦白说，绝大多数有意或无意引入的物种不会对本地生态系统构成威胁，”她说。
Some arrivals do cause problems. In North America, “invasive species” include the emerald ash borer, an insect from north-eastern Asia that damages ash trees. But most control measures are laborious and expensive failures, Kharouba says. Some are even harmful, like using herbicides that afflict the native and non-native alike. Kharouba cites numerous examples of introduced species enriching their new homes. More generally, there is a trade-off: forests in the eastern US that are turning gold with autumn’s onset now harbour fewer species, but they store more carbon. “All this means that introduced plants could be well placed to support, or even buffer, current ecosystems as they undergo transitions due to climate change,” Kharouba says. Nature offers stark evidence that the world is changing rapidly. What if we embraced it?
有些人的到来确实会造成问题。在北美，“入侵物种”包括白蜡虫，这是一种来自亚洲东北部的昆虫，会损害白蜡树。但卡鲁巴说，大多数控制措施都是费力且代价高昂的失败。有些甚至是有害的，例如使用对本地人和非本地人都造成伤害的除草剂。卡鲁巴列举了许多引进物种丰富其新家园的例子。更普遍地说，存在着一种权衡：随着秋季的到来，美国东部的森林变得金黄，现在的物种减少了，但它们储存了更多的碳。卡鲁巴说：“所有这些都意味着，引进的植物可以很好地支持甚至缓冲当前的生态系统，因为它们正在经历气候变化带来的转变。”大自然提供了鲜明的证据，证明世界正在迅速变化。如果我们拥抱它怎么办？
Not just a challenge
不仅仅是一个挑战
Climate activists have typically shied away from discussing “climate adaptation” for fear of sounding defeatist says Joost de Moor, an assistant professor of political science at Sciences Po. There is cause to remain laser-focused on cutting emissions, he adds, but no excuse to neglect the question entirely. If change is inevitable, what sort of world do we want to emerge from the climate crisis? In March 2023, protesters in western France seized the initiative when they opposed the construction of a 628,000 sq metre reservoir in the rural Sainte-Soline commune, de Moor says.
巴黎政治学院政治学助理教授乔斯特·德摩尔表示，气候活动人士通常回避讨论“气候适应”，因为担心听起来像是失败主义者。他补充说，我们有理由继续专注于减少排放，但没有理由完全忽视这个问题。如果变化不可避免，我们希望摆脱气候危机，打造一个什么样的世界？德摩尔说，2023 年 3 月，法国西部的抗议者抓住了主动权，反对在圣索兰乡村公社修建一座 628,000 平方米的水库。
France had suffered a historic drought, and so a huge artificial water reserve might have seemed prudent. Not if it involved draining a common resource, the water table, to serve a few farmers whose methods of agriculture already placed an untenable strain on struggling ecosystems, protesters argued. “Some of the actions taken by humans to minimise the risk of catastrophic floods can actually make life more pleasant anyway, even when it isn’t raining,” says Maryam Imani, an associate professor of water systems engineering at Anglia Ruskin University. “For this reason, we should see rains like this not just as a challenge, but as an opportunity.”
法国遭受了历史性的干旱，因此建立庞大的人工水储备似乎是谨慎的做法。抗议者认为，如果它涉及排干公共资源（地下水位）来为少数农民服务，而他们的农业方法已经给陷入困境的生态系统带来了难以承受的压力。安格利亚鲁斯金大学水系统工程副教授玛丽亚姆·伊马尼（Maryam Imani）表示：“人类为尽量减少灾难性洪水风险而采取的一些行动实际上可以让生活变得更加愉快，即使不下雨也是如此。” “因此，我们不应将这样的降雨视为挑战，而是机遇。”
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