我经常看到人们在押对概率高于50%时做决定，而他们没有看到的是进一步提高押对概率对他们会有多大的益处（你几乎总是可以通过获取更多信息来提高押对概率）。与把押对概率从49%（很可能是错的）提高到51%（对的可能性只是略高一点）相比，把押对概率从51%提高到85%（提高34个百分点）所产生的预期价值增益是前者的17倍。把概率视为你犯错可能性的标尺。把押对概率提高34个百分点意味着，你1/3的押注都将从损失变成收益。所以即使在你很有信心的情况下，对你的思维进行压力测试也是有好处的。 知道什么时候不要去押注和知道什么注值得押同样重要，只在你最有信心会获得回报的时候押注，你的记录会得到显著改善。 I often observe people making decisions if their odds of being right are greater than 50 percent. What they fail to see is how much better off they’d be if they raised their chances even more (you can almost always improve your odds of being right by doing things that will give you more information). The expected value gain from raising the probability of being right from 51 percent to 85 percent (i.e., by 34 percentage points) is seventeen times more than raising the odds of being right from 49 percent (which is probably wrong) to 51 percent (which is only a little more likely to be right). Think of the probability as a measure of how often you’re likely to be wrong. Raising the probability of being right by 34 percentage points means that a third of your bets will switch from losses to wins. That’s why it pays to stress-test your thinking, even when you’re pretty sure you’re right. You can significantly improve your track record if you only make the bets that you are most confident will pay off.
