发现与获奖之间的时间间隔表明诺贝尔奖如何奖励科学
詹·克里斯蒂安森
气象学家 Syukuro Manabe 因其在 20 世纪 60 年代模拟气体在大气中的运动而荣获 2021 年诺贝尔物理学奖。他 60 年前的研究为科学家今天用来解释和预测气候变化的计算机模型奠定了基础。
Manabe 的等待时间特别长，但《科学美国人》发现，诺贝尔奖的颁发与最早获奖作品的问世之间往往存在相当大的差距——平均间隔 20 年。“需要时间来证明某件事的影响不仅仅是好奇心，”斯坦福大学教授 John Ioannidis 说道，他研究了诺贝尔奖的分布和影响力。虽然这些奖项并不能代表整个科学界，但它们揭示了塑造关键科学领域的趋势和激励因素。
随着诺贝尔奖季的临近，我们杂志社想知道哪些科学分支领域最受赞誉，以及研究和认可之间的时间间隔是否存在明显的规律。我们使用诺贝尔奖官方概要和声明将奖项分类到我们自己的分支学科类别中，并在显示趋势的时间轴上列出研究日期。
一个明显的趋势是，每个奖项的获奖者人数越来越多。每个奖项最多可由三名在世研究人员分享，但随着科学研究变得更加协作，这一规则越来越受到限制。伊奥尼迪斯表示，如果诺贝尔委员会不能只选出三名对一项研究成果负责的人，这一规定甚至可能会扭曲未来最重要的研究。“要选出一个真正与众不同的人并不容易。”
Jen Christiansen；来源：https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes/all/（主要参考）
Jen Christiansen；来源：https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes/all/（主要参考）
Jen Christiansen；来源：https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes/all/（主要参考）
Hidden Patterns Show Nobel Prize Science Trends
Time lags between discoveries and awards show how the Nobel Prizes reward science
Jen Christiansen
Meteorologist Syukuro Manabe shared the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics for his work modeling gases’ movement through a column of atmospheric air—in the 1960s. His 60-year-old research had proved foundational for the computer models that scientists use today to interpret and predict our changing climate.
Manabe’s wait was particularly long, but there is often a substantial gap between the awarding of a Nobel Prize and the earliest work it honors—an average of 20 years across categories, Scientific American found. “It takes time to prove that something has impact beyond just curiosity,” says John Ioannidis, a Stanford University professor who has examined the Nobels’ distribution and influence. Although the awards are not a representative look at all of science, they reveal the trends and incentives shaping key scientific fields.
As Nobel season approaches, we at the magazine wondered what subfields of science have been most celebrated and whether there are visible patterns related to the amount of time between the research and the recognition. We used the official Nobel synopses and statements to sort the awards into our own subdiscipline categories and to inform research dates on a timeline that shows the trends.
One clear pattern is the increase in multiple laureates per prize. Each award can be split among a maximum of three living researchers, but that rule is increasingly constraining as science becomes more collaborative. This stipulation may even skew what gets highlighted as the most significant research going forward, Ioannidis suggests, if a Nobel Committee cannot pick only three individuals responsible for a result. “It’s not easy to have someone who really stands out so separately from the rest of the world.”
Jen Christiansen; Source: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes/all/ (primary reference)
Jen Christiansen; Source: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes/all/ (primary reference)
Jen Christiansen; Source: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes/all/ (primary reference)
