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英文部分选自经济学人20240713期商业板块
商业｜熊彼特专栏
曾经事业腾飞的波音公司如今成了犯罪企业
它的困境揭示了当下美企对企业瘦身的过度追求
At the turn of the century Boeing launched an advertising blitz to show what a marvel of American manufacturing it was. Called “Forever New Frontiers”, it highlighted its pioneering work on some of the 20th century’s biggest breakthroughs, from passenger and fighter jets to space rockets and satellites. Coming a few years after its merger with McDonnell Douglas, a smaller rival, Boeing stood tallin the fast-consolidating aerospace industry. How far it has fallen since. On July 7th the American government said Boeing had agreed in principle to plead guilty to fraud in connection with two deadly crashes by its 737 max jets in 2018 and 2019. This latest frontier, its most disgraceful yet, makes it the corporate equivalent of a criminal. Looking back over the decades, it becomes clear that Boeing’s embrace of what were once the defining trends in American business have come back to haunt it.
世纪之交，波音公司做了大量广告宣传，标榜自己是美国制造业的奇迹。广告语“永远在前沿”强调了波音开创性地致力于20世纪的一些重大突破，比如客机和战斗机，甚至是太空火箭和卫星。波音与规模较小的竞争对手麦克唐纳·道格拉斯公司（McDonnell Douglas）合并几年后，波音公司在快速整合的航空航天业中巍然屹立。与那时相比，波音公司如今风光不再。7月7日，美国政府表示，波音公司已原则上同意承认存在欺诈行为，这一欺诈行为与2018年和2019年其波音737 MAX喷气式客机发生的两起致命坠机事故有关。这一最新的“前沿”，也是它迄今为止最大的丑闻，将它和犯罪企业划上了等号。回顾波音公司几十年来的发展历程，波音公司曾经拥抱的那些当年定义美国商业的潮流，如今却反过来困扰着它。
First, the tie-up with McDonnell Douglas in 1997 was part of what The Economist then approvingly called “one of the great industrial upheavals of all time”: the hammering together of America’s fragmented defence industry into a few global Goliaths. Since then consolidation has been the name of the game across corporate America. The second trend was outsourcing. In 2005 Boeing joined the rush to offload capital-intensive manufacturing and cut labour costs by selling off parts of its production line, becoming an assembler of planes rather than a vertically integrated manufacturer. Third, like many listed American firms, Boeing showered stockholders with cash via share repurchases and dividends rather than investing in non-financial innovation.
首先，美国曾将分散的国防工业整合成几个全球巨头，而1997年波音公司与麦克唐纳·道格拉斯公司的合并，就是这次整合的一部分。这次整合在当时被《经济学人》（The Economist）称为“有史以来最伟大的工业剧变之一”。从那时起，整合就成了美国企业界的主旋律。波音公司迎合的第二个趋势是外包。2005年，波音公司出售部分生产线，成为飞机组装企业，不再是垂直一体化制造商，以此加入了外包资本密集型制造流程和削减劳动力成本的大潮。它迎合的第三个趋势是，像许多上市的美国公司一样，波音公司通过股票回购和分红向股东派发现金，而并不投资于非金融创新。
All three trends delighted Wall Street. They made the American economy more efficient and made waves around the world. They helped propel Boeing’s market value to more than $200bn in 2019. But they have gone too far. Boeing’s travails have torched around $100bn of that shareholder value.
华尔街乐见这三种变化趋势，因为它们提高了美国经济的效率，还在全球范围内产生了影响。这些趋势推动了波音公司市值上涨，在2019年甚至超过了2000亿美元。但过犹不及，波音公司的几次事故已经将约1000亿美元的股东价值烧得灰飞烟灭。
Consider them in reverse order. The obsession with short-term shareholder returns, which may have led Boeing to undermine the safety of the 737 max by cutting corners, is widely seen as dating back to its landmark deal with McDonnell Douglas. Though Boeing was by far the stronger company, it absorbed the smaller firm’s Wall Street-obsessed culture, particularly when it came to generating cash from legacy planes rather than pouring cash into creating new ones.
再反过来看这些趋势。波音可能因为过分追求短期股东回报，可能会诱使公司偷工减料，导致737 MAX的安全性大打折扣。这种痴迷被广泛认为起源于波音与麦克唐纳·道格拉斯公司达成的里程碑式交易。波音无疑是实力更强的公司，但它吸收了麦克唐纳·道格拉斯公司迷恋华尔街的文化，尤其是在选择盈利途径方面：选择从元老飞机中大捞一笔，而不是投资新机型。
To be sure, returning cash to those who supplied it in the first place has merits. It gives shareholders the freedom to redirect investments to where they see better opportunities. But in Boeing’s case some of the $61bn in dividends and buy-backs it doled out between 2014 and 2020 could have been better invested in new models, improvements in safety to protect its future, or both. Its last brand-new fleet-building programme, the 787 Dreamliner, dates all the way back to 2004. The 737 max, a short-haul workhorse whose faulty software caused the catastrophic crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia, was a souped-up existing model rather than an all-new aircraft. In this narrowbody category, Boeing’s market share has plunged from 48% to 38% in a decade, putting it far behind its European arch-rival, Airbus.
诚然，将资金返还给当初出资方有其好处，可以让股东自由地将资金重新投资到他们认为更有前景的地方。然而，波音在2014年至2020年间发放的610亿美元股息和回购中，有一部分本可以更好地投资于新机型、提升安全性，以确保其未来的竞争力，或兼而有之。波音上一个全新的机群建设计划787梦幻客机（Dreamliner），要追溯到2004年。737 MAX是用于短途运输的主力机型，其软件故障导致了发生在印尼和埃塞俄比亚的两起灾难性空难。737 MAX是已有机型的升级版，并非全新飞机。在窄体飞机这种类别中，波音的市场份额在过去十年间从48%骤降至38%，远远落后于其欧洲劲敌空客公司。
These days even Wall Street would rather see Boeing prioritise safety in order, partly, to recover market share lost to Airbus. Yet even as it struggles to overcome safety worries, the company promises free-cashflow generation in the years ahead that looks increasingly delusional. Boeing’s bean-counter mentality remains.
如今，就连华尔街也更愿意看到波音把安全性放在首位，一定程度上是为了挽回被空客公司夺走的市场份额。然而，波音在努力解决安全顾虑的同时，还承诺在未来几年产生自由现金流，看起来越发痴心妄想了。看来波音的“铁公鸡”思维仍然根深蒂固。
The loss of a fuselage panel on an Alaska Airlines max aircraft shortly after take-off in January has drawn unflattering attention to the second trend once embraced by Boeing—outsourcing. The panel (which sealed an unused exit) was manufactured by lossmaking Spirit AeroSystems, which was once part of Boeing but was sold during the outsourcing boom. As the Wall Street Journal reported, that divestment decision was part of a trend to develop “asset-light” firms focused on intellectual property; most notably, Boeing outsourced most of the manufacturing of the Dreamliner. Yet distributing production brought its own headaches. Delays, cost overruns and supply-chain snags became vividly apparent during the covid-19 pandemic. On July 1st Boeing said it would reacquire Spirit for $8.3bn, restoring safety to its central position. The pendulum has swung back towards vertical integration.
今年1月，阿拉斯加航空的一架MAX飞机起飞后不久，一块机身面板突然掉落，这再次引发了对波音曾经热衷的外包策略的质疑。这块掉落的面板用于密封一个未使用的出口，由经营不善的势必锐航空系统公司（Spirit AeroSystems）制造。该公司曾隶属波音公司，但在外包热潮期间被出售了。正如《华尔街日报》所报道的那样，决定分拆出售是公司迈向专注于知识产权的“轻资产”趋势的一步；最值得注意的是，波音外包了梦幻客机的大部分制造业务。然而，生产分散化也带来了棘手的问题。在新冠疫情期间，延误、成本超支和供应链障碍的问题愈发显著。7月1日，波音公司宣布将以83亿美元的价格重新收购势必锐，将安全性重新置于核心位置。这表明，趋势正在向垂直整合回归。
The megamerger trend, too, has had chequered results. Buying McDonnell Douglas’s armsmaking prowess vaulted Boeing into the top-tier of defence contractors. The logic appeared sound. Military budgets tend to be reliable counterweights to the vagaries of the civil-aviation market, making earnings more predictable. Government-backed innovations in military technology can also benefit commercial aircraft. Yet sitting too long at the top table appears to have made Boeing’s defence and space businesses fat and lazy. In recent years it has haemorrhaged cash on weapons programmes. Its rocket launches have lagged badly behind those of Elon Musk’s SpaceX. After years of mishaps, in June its Starliner space capsule dropped off two astronauts at the International Space Station. But it has had to delay bringing them home.
大规模并购的趋势也带来了喜忧参半的结果。波音公司购入麦克唐纳·道格拉斯公司，获得其军工能力后，一跃成为顶级国防承包商。收购逻辑并不难猜。军费往往能够对冲民用航空市场的变幻莫测，使整体收益更可预测。政府支持的军事技术创新对商用飞机来说也是利好。然而，在高处坐得太久似乎也让波音的国防和航天业务变得臃肿而懒散。近年来，波音在武器项目上损失惨重。它的火箭发射远远落后于埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX。在经历了数年的失利之后，今年6月，波音的“星际飞船”太空舱终于将两名宇航员送到了国际空间站，但返程计划还是推迟了。
Go soon, Calhoun
卡尔霍恩，行动起来！
What to do about all this? For a start, get cracking. Boeing’s hapless boss, David Calhoun, has promised to step down by the end of 2024. That is not soon enough. There are immediate decisions to make, such as how to reinvigorate max production while rebuilding a safety culture, and how to deal with unions threatening to strike when their pay contract ends in September. More important, like all convicts, Boeing needs rehabilitation. And like all rehabilitation, this must start with self-reflection: in Boeing’s case, realising that efficiency is all well and good, but being too lean and too mean can come at a grave cost.
面对这一切，该怎么办呢？首先，行动起来！波音公司的倒霉老板大卫·卡尔霍恩（David Calhoun）已承诺将在2024年底卸任。但现在离卸任还早着呢，眼下他需要立即做出一些决定，比如如何在重建安全文化的同时重振MAX系列飞机的生产，以及如何应对工会要在9月份工资合同到期时举行罢工的威胁。更重要的是，像所有罪犯一样，波音公司需要改过自新。而像所有的改过自新一样，它首先必须要进行自我反省：在波音的案例中，我们要意识到，效率固然重要，但过于瘦身和削减开支可能会付出沉重的代价。
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