原文发表于美国时间2024-9-30
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔定于周一发表讲话，背景是经济学家们对潜在政策失误和2024年大选风险日益加剧的担忧。
发生了什么事情：
美国全国商业经济协会(NABE)在周日发布的一项调查报告显示，32位专业的预测人士中有39%认为“货币政策失误”是未来一年美国经济面临的最大威胁。
这种担忧超过了将即将到来的美国总统大选视为重大风险的23%的专业人士看法，以及对乌克兰和中东冲突升级为重大风险持担忧态度的23%的专业人士。
鲍威尔预计将详细说明在9月17日至18日举行的美联储议息会议上为何美联储决定将基准利率下调50个基点。他还将讨论今年剩余时间和2025年降低借贷成本（降息）的框架。
美国全国商业经济协会(NABE)总裁艾伦·曾特纳表示：“超过一半的协会调查小组成员认为，未来12个月的风险预测为经济下行。”调查还显示，小组成员们已上调对2024年经济增长的预测，但下调了2025年的经济增长预测。
鲍威尔将于美国中部夏令时间下午12:55在田纳西州纳什维尔发表讲话。
为何值得关注：
美联储最近的降息一直是经济学家和投资者们关注的焦点。美联储50基点的降息引发了美股市场反弹。美联储降息被视为对美国股市和大宗商品市场的积极信号，并减少了债券市场的波动性。
9月25日进行的Benzinga调查显示，（投资者认为）降息可能使小盘股受益，因为降息令需要资金以实现增长的公司获得贷款的成本更低。
此外，上周五公布的个人消费支出价格指数报告显示通胀数据低于市场预期，增强了人们对美联储降息决定的信心。这份数据报告公布时间的重要性在于个人消费支出是美联储青睐的通胀指标，该数据可能会影响到美联储未来的降息。
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懂行的，选盈透！
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